Shoe Carnival Stock Volatility
| SCVL Stock | USD 20.08 0.50 2.43% |
Shoe Carnival appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Shoe Carnival owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.12, which indicates the firm had a 0.12 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for Shoe Carnival, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Shoe Carnival's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0683, coefficient of variation of 1210.12, and Semi Deviation of 2.72 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Sharpe Ratio = 0.1154
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Based on monthly moving average Shoe Carnival is performing at about 9% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Shoe Carnival by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.
Key indicators related to Shoe Carnival's volatility include:90 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 90 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Shoe Carnival Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Shoe daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Shoe's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Shoe Carnival volatility.
ESG Sustainability
While most ESG disclosures are voluntary, Shoe Carnival's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Shoe Carnival's managers and investors.Environmental | Governance | Social |
Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Shoe Carnival at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Shoe stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower their average cost per share, thereby improving the overall portfolio performance when market normalizes. Main indicators related to Shoe Carnival's market risk premium analysis include:
Beta 1.64 | Alpha 0.15 | Risk 2.9 | Sharpe Ratio 0.12 | Expected Return 0.33 |
Moving together with Shoe Stock
| 0.74 | F | Ford Motor | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | ABEV | Ambev SA ADR Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | OBYCF | Obayashi Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.68 | BNKHF | BOC Hong Kong | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | RILYL | B Riley Financial | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | SECVY | Seche Environnement | PairCorr |
Moving against Shoe Stock
| 0.71 | PMV | Premier Investments | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | GRAB | Grab Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.59 | STP | Step One Clothing | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | TDUP | ThredUp | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | NIO | Nio Class A Buyout Trend | PairCorr |
Shoe Carnival Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Shoe Carnival's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Shoe stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Shoe stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Shoe Carnival's beta of 1.64 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Shoe Carnival stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Shoe Carnival shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Shoe Carnival's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Shoe Carnival's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Shoe Carnival Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Shoe Carnival correlation with market (Dow Jones Industrial)Shoe Carnival Volatility and Downside Risk
Shoe standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Using Shoe Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Shoe Carnival grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Shoe Carnival at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Shoe Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Shoe Carnival's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Shoe Carnival will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Shoe Carnival's PUT expiring on 2026-03-20
Profit |
| Shoe Carnival Price At Expiration |
Current Shoe Carnival Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | SCVL260320P00010000 | -0.083003 | 0.010622 | 1 | 2026-03-20 | 0.0 - 0.75 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SCVL260320P00012500 | -0.112045 | 0.017624 | 6 | 2026-03-20 | 0.0 - 0.75 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SCVL260320P00015000 | -0.118407 | 0.031147 | 10 | 2026-03-20 | 0.1 - 0.75 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SCVL260320P00017500 | -0.172009 | 0.06441 | 19 | 2026-03-20 | 0.2 - 0.7 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SCVL260320P00020000 | -0.402922 | 0.072524 | 24 | 2026-03-20 | 0.0 - 1.8 | 0.0 | View |
Put | SCVL260320P00022500 | -0.666243 | 0.103458 | 1 | 2026-03-20 | 2.15 - 3.0 | 0.0 | View |
Shoe Carnival Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Shoe Carnival stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Shoe Carnival's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Shoe Carnival's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Shoe Carnival's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Shoe Carnival's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Shoe Carnival's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Shoe Carnival's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Shoe Carnival's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Shoe Carnival Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Shoe Carnival Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.6389 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Shoe Carnival will likely underperform.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Shoe Carnival or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Shoe Carnival's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Shoe stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Predicted Return Density |
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What Drives a Shoe Carnival Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract investor attention to the company. This positive attention may impact the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Shoe Carnival Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Shoe Carnival is 866.49. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 8.42 and standard deviation of 2.9. The mean deviation of Shoe Carnival is currently at 2.36. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (Dow Jones Industrial) has volatility of 0.74
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.90 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Shoe Carnival Stock Return Volatility
Shoe Carnival historical daily return volatility represents how much of Shoe Carnival stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 2.9019% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, Dow Jones Industrial accepts 0.7533% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
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Related Correlations Analysis
Correlation Matchups
Over a given time period, the two securities move together when the Correlation Coefficient is positive. Conversely, the two assets move in opposite directions when the Correlation Coefficient is negative. Determining your positions' relationship to each other is valuable for analyzing and projecting your portfolio's future expected return and risk.High positive correlations
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Risk-Adjusted Indicators
There is a big difference between Shoe Stock performing well and Shoe Carnival Company doing well as a business compared to the competition. There are so many exceptions to the norm that investors cannot definitively determine what's good or bad unless they analyze Shoe Carnival's multiple risk-adjusted performance indicators across the competitive landscape. These indicators are quantitative in nature and help investors forecast volatility and risk-adjusted expected returns across various positions.| Mean Deviation | Jensen Alpha | Sortino Ratio | Treynor Ratio | Semi Deviation | Expected Shortfall | Potential Upside | Value @Risk | Maximum Drawdown | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXM | 3.10 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 4.92 | 7.88 | 30.64 | |||
| SFIX | 2.75 | 0.18 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 3.12 | 6.80 | 19.91 | |||
| LEGH | 1.62 | (0.06) | (0.03) | (0.01) | 1.97 | 2.95 | 10.51 | |||
| CAL | 2.60 | 0.23 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 3.02 | 8.13 | 19.93 | |||
| BALY | 2.84 | (0.38) | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | 5.47 | 16.79 | |||
| HZO | 2.62 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 2.44 | 7.45 | 16.81 | |||
| BLMN | 3.06 | (0.13) | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 5.22 | 22.59 | |||
| CPS | 2.39 | (0.08) | (0.01) | 0.00 | 3.80 | 5.82 | 15.52 | |||
| MLR | 1.36 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 1.72 | 2.66 | 7.96 | |||
| GDEN | 1.64 | 0.57 | 0.44 | (1.30) | 0.65 | 2.51 | 37.11 |
About Shoe Carnival Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Shoe Carnival or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Shoe Carnival may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Shoe's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Shoe Carnival and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Shoe Carnival fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 58.1 M | 49.6 M | |
| Market Cap | 46.3 M | 44 M |
Shoe Carnival's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Shoe Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Shoe Carnival's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Shoe Carnival's volatility to invest better
Higher Shoe Carnival's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Shoe Carnival stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Shoe Carnival stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Shoe Carnival investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Shoe Carnival's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Shoe Carnival's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Shoe Carnival Investment Opportunity
Shoe Carnival has a volatility of 2.9 and is 3.87 times more volatile than Dow Jones Industrial. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Shoe Carnival is lower than 26 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Shoe Carnival to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences an unexpected downward movement. The market is reacting to new fundamentals. Check odds of Shoe Carnival to be traded at $19.28 in 90 days.Very poor diversification
The correlation between Shoe Carnival and DJI is 0.82 (i.e., Very poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Shoe Carnival and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Shoe Carnival Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Shoe Carnival's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shoe Carnival's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Shoe Carnival stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0683 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1555 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1210.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Shoe Carnival Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Shoe Carnival as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Shoe Carnival's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Shoe Carnival's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Shoe Carnival.
When determining whether Shoe Carnival is a strong investment it is important to analyze Shoe Carnival's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Shoe Carnival's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Shoe Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Shoe Carnival. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.You can also try the AI Portfolio Prophet module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Shoe Carnival assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 0.585 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Understanding Shoe Carnival requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Shoe's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Shoe Carnival's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Shoe Carnival's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Shoe Carnival's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.