Shoe Carnival Stock Market Outlook
| SCVL Stock | USD 19.97 0.28 1.38% |
About 55% of Shoe Carnival's investor base is interested to short. The analysis of current outlook of investing in Shoe Carnival suggests that many traders are impartial regarding Shoe Carnival's prospects. Shoe Carnival's investing sentiment shows overall attitude of investors towards Shoe Carnival.
Comfort Level 45
Impartial
Panic | Confidence |
Today, several news technology companies offer sentiment data to assist traders in manufacturing news sentiment indicators for investment decisions. We partner with these technology firms in helping retail investors build forecasting models that use Shoe Carnival's input sentiment indicators derived from textual data and news published on major financial information outlets and social sites. These indicators can be used to analyze time-dependent numerical information representing public perception toward Shoe Carnival.
News SentimentBullish | Hype SentimentBearish | Insider SentimentWaiting |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Shoe Carnival is 'Strong Hold'. The recommendation algorithm takes into account all of Shoe Carnival's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site.
Execute Shoe Carnival Advice
The Shoe recommendation should be used to complement the investment advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Shoe Carnival. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Shoe Carnival or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Shoe Carnival's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Fair | Details | |
Volatility | Not too volatile | Details | |
Hype Condition | Under hyped | Details | |
Current Valuation | Overvalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
For the selected time horizon Shoe Carnival has a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.098, Jensen Alpha of 0.1931, Total Risk Alpha of (0.02), Sortino Ratio of 0.0825 and Treynor Ratio of 0.2464Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Shoe Carnival and to analyze the firm potential to grow in the current economic cycle. To make sure Shoe Carnival is not overpriced, please validate all Shoe Carnival fundamentals, including its cash flow from operations, working capital, and the relationship between the cash per share and number of employees . Given that Shoe Carnival has a price to earning of 6.77 X, we advise you to double-check Shoe Carnival market performance and probability of bankruptcy to ensure the company can sustain itself in the current economic cycle given your current risk tolerance and investing horizon.
Shoe Carnival Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Over 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 26th of January 2026 Shoe Carnival paid $ 0.15 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Trump Greenland Threats, Tariff Jitters Send Shoe Stocks Tumbling |
Shoe Carnival Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Shoe Carnival's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Shoe Carnival's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Shoe Carnival daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Shoe Carnival price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Shoe Carnival returns is essential to provide solid investment analysis for Shoe Carnival.
| Mean Return | 0.32 | Value At Risk | -3.76 | Potential Upside | 4.95 | Standard Deviation | 2.80 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Shoe Carnival historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Shoe Stock Institutional Investors
| Shares | Hodges Capital Management Inc | 2025-06-30 | 438.4 K | Royce & Associates, Lp | 2025-06-30 | 416.5 K | Wasatch Advisors Lp | 2025-06-30 | 366.7 K | Lsv Asset Management | 2025-06-30 | 335.9 K | Nokomis Capital Llc | 2025-06-30 | 331.1 K | Cubist Systematic Strategies, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 321.8 K | Arnhold & S. Bleichroeder Advisers, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 314.4 K | Proshare Advisors Llc | 2025-06-30 | 310.5 K | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2025-06-30 | 283.5 K | Blackrock Inc | 2025-06-30 | 2.8 M | Copeland Capital Management, Llc | 2025-06-30 | 1.7 M |
Shoe Carnival Cash Flow Accounts
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (24.3M) | (106.2M) | 43.9M | 2.2M | 2.5M | 2.6M | |
| Change In Cash | 10.9M | (66.1M) | 47.6M | 9.7M | 11.1M | 11.7M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 116.5M | (26.9M) | 66.5M | 69.5M | 79.9M | 83.9M | |
| Depreciation | 18.8M | 23.2M | 28.8M | 31.1M | 35.7M | 37.5M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 49.0M | 48.2M | 55.9M | 55.2M | 63.5M | 66.6M | |
| Dividends Paid | 8.0M | 10.0M | (12.2M) | (14.7M) | (13.2M) | (12.6M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 31.4M | 77.3M | 56.3M | 33.2M | 38.1M | 22.5M | |
| Net Income | 154.9M | 110.1M | 73.3M | 73.8M | 84.8M | 89.1M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 117.4M | 51.4M | 99M | 108.7M | 125.0M | 131.2M | |
| Investments | (17.2M) | (74.0M) | (54.6M) | (77.7M) | (69.9M) | (66.4M) | |
| Change To Netincome | 11.8M | 52.9M | 57.4M | 68.2M | 78.4M | 82.4M |
Shoe Carnival Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Shoe Carnival or Specialty Retail sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Shoe Carnival's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Shoe stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Shoe Carnival Volatility Alert
Shoe Carnival currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.08 and Jensen Alpha of 0.19. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Shoe Carnival's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Shoe Carnival's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Shoe Carnival Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Shoe Carnival's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Shoe Carnival's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Shoe Carnival and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Shoe Carnival or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Shoe Carnival's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shoe Carnival by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Shoe Carnival to competition |
| Fundamentals | Shoe Carnival | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.0878 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0377 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.05 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.06 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 812.21 M | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 27.37 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 35.58 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 75.28 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 3.25 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 6.77 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 0.82 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.49 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.2 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 418.09 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 128.87 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 73.77 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 47.52 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 1.73 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 367.99 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.65 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 2.84 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 24.96 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 102.64 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 6.94 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 2.10 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.95 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 19.0 | |
| Number Of Employees | 2.5 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.35 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 556.26 M | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 1.12 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 773.35 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 405.72 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 3313 shares by Sifford Clifton E of Shoe Carnival at 16.88 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Shoe Carnival Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Shoe . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10054.29 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.27) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.06 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.28) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.28) |
About Shoe Carnival Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Shoe Carnival? Buying financial instruments such as Shoe Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Shoe Carnival in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Shoe Carnival Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more information on how to buy Shoe Stock please use our How to buy in Shoe Stock guide.You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
Is Specialty Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Shoe Carnival. If investors know Shoe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Shoe Carnival assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Dividend Share 0.585 | Earnings Share 2.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
Understanding Shoe Carnival requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Shoe's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Shoe Carnival's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Shoe Carnival's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Shoe Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Shoe Carnival is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Shoe Carnival's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.