Mediaalpha Stock Price Prediction
| MAX Stock | USD 11.14 0.14 1.24% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.1024 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5136 | Wall Street Target Price 21.4286 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.12 |
Using MediaAlpha hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MediaAlpha from the perspective of MediaAlpha response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MediaAlpha using MediaAlpha's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MediaAlpha using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MediaAlpha's stock price.
MediaAlpha Implied Volatility | 1.48 |
MediaAlpha's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MediaAlpha stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MediaAlpha's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MediaAlpha stock will not fluctuate a lot when MediaAlpha's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in MediaAlpha to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying MediaAlpha because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
MediaAlpha after-hype prediction price | USD 11.23 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MediaAlpha contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MediaAlpha will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0925% per day over the life of the 2025-03-21 option contract. With MediaAlpha trading at USD 11.14, that is roughly USD 0.0103 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MediaAlpha's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MediaAlpha options at the current volatility level of 1.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
MediaAlpha |
MediaAlpha After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MediaAlpha at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MediaAlpha or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MediaAlpha, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MediaAlpha Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MediaAlpha's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MediaAlpha's historical news coverage. MediaAlpha's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.95 and 16.51, respectively. We have considered MediaAlpha's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MediaAlpha is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MediaAlpha is based on 3 months time horizon.
MediaAlpha Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MediaAlpha is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MediaAlpha backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MediaAlpha, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.72 | 5.28 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.14 | 11.23 | 0.81 |
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MediaAlpha Hype Timeline
On the 18th of January 2025 MediaAlpha is traded for 11.14. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. MediaAlpha is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.81%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.72%. The volatility of related hype on MediaAlpha is about 3245.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 388.15 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (40.42 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 116.87 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out MediaAlpha Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.MediaAlpha Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MediaAlpha's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MediaAlpha's future price movements. Getting to know how MediaAlpha's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MediaAlpha may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
MediaAlpha Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MediaAlpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MediaAlpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze MediaAlpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About MediaAlpha Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of MediaAlpha stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as MediaAlpha, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of MediaAlpha based on analysis of MediaAlpha hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to MediaAlpha's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to MediaAlpha's related companies. | 2022 | 2024 | 2025 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.005113 | 0.00588 | 0.005586 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.91 | 1.51 | 2.09 |
Story Coverage note for MediaAlpha
The number of cover stories for MediaAlpha depends on current market conditions and MediaAlpha's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MediaAlpha is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MediaAlpha's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MediaAlpha Short Properties
MediaAlpha's future price predictability will typically decrease when MediaAlpha's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MediaAlpha often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MediaAlpha's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MediaAlpha's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 17.3 M |
Additional Tools for MediaAlpha Stock Analysis
When running MediaAlpha's price analysis, check to measure MediaAlpha's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MediaAlpha is operating at the current time. Most of MediaAlpha's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MediaAlpha's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MediaAlpha's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MediaAlpha to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.