UMB Financial Stock Forward View
| UMBF Stock | USD 130.97 3.01 2.35% |
UMB Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of UMB Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of UMB Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.126 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.6976 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.97 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.0662 | Wall Street Target Price 145.4167 |
Using UMB Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UMB Financial from the perspective of UMB Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UMB Financial using UMB Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UMB using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UMB Financial's stock price.
UMB Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UMB Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UMB. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UMB Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 111.914 | Short Percent 0.0439 | Short Ratio 5.96 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 118.2644 |
UMB Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 131.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.43.UMB Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UMB Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UMB. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UMB can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UMB Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UMB Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UMB Financial.
UMB Financial Implied Volatility | 0.51 |
UMB Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UMB Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UMB Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UMB Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when UMB Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 131.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.43. UMB Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 132.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current UMB contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that UMB Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0319% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With UMB Financial trading at USD 130.97, that is roughly USD 0.0417 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating UMB Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring UMB Financial options at the current volatility level of 0.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 UMB Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UMB Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UMB Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UMB Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UMB Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to UMB Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UMB Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UMB. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
UMB Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UMB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UMB using various technical indicators. When you analyze UMB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UMB Financial Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the UMB Financial's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-09-30 | Previous Quarter 9 B | Current Value 952.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 2.1 B |
UMB Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 131.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 3.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.43.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UMB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UMB Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UMB Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UMB Financial | UMB Financial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
UMB Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UMB Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UMB Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 129.47 and 132.77, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UMB Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UMB Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1958 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5069 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0131 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 93.4271 |
Predictive Modules for UMB Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UMB Financial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of UMB Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UMB Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UMB Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
UMB Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting UMB Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UMB Financial's historical news coverage. UMB Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 130.45 and 133.75, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
UMB Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UMB Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
UMB Financial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as UMB Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UMB Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UMB Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.65 | 1.13 | 0.25 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
130.97 | 132.10 | 0.86 |
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UMB Financial Hype Timeline
UMB Financial is at this time traded for 130.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.25. UMB is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 132.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 48.1%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.86%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on UMB Financial is about 221.18%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 131.22. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.44 B. Net Income was 441.24 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.5 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections.UMB Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to UMB Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UMB Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how UMB Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UMB Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 0.89 | 11 per month | 1.03 | 0.20 | 2.93 | (1.59) | 7.78 | |
| CFR | CullenFrost Bankers | (1.16) | 9 per month | 0.74 | 0.13 | 3.15 | (1.28) | 7.64 | |
| WTFC | Wintrust Financial | 3.12 | 8 per month | 1.06 | 0.18 | 3.42 | (1.57) | 8.80 | |
| WAL | Western Alliance Bancorporation | 1.07 | 8 per month | 1.55 | 0.13 | 3.88 | (2.94) | 10.08 | |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | 1.42 | 8 per month | 1.14 | 0.06 | 2.40 | (2.03) | 6.30 | |
| ZION | Zions Bancorporation | (1.44) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.18 | 2.58 | (1.58) | 8.08 | |
| SSB | SouthState | 0.12 | 6 per month | 0.72 | 0.19 | 2.93 | (1.27) | 5.16 | |
| BPOP | Popular | (0.49) | 9 per month | 1.26 | 0.20 | 2.96 | (2.08) | 6.73 | |
| CFG | Citizens Financial Group | (0.52) | 8 per month | 0.80 | 0.23 | 2.99 | (1.80) | 9.61 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | 4.45 | 8 per month | 0.70 | 0.24 | 3.17 | (1.22) | 7.41 |
Other Forecasting Options for UMB Financial
For every potential investor in UMB, whether a beginner or expert, UMB Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UMB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UMB Financial's price trends.UMB Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UMB Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UMB Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UMB Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UMB Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UMB Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UMB Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UMB Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UMB Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21340.89 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7659 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 130.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 130.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.95 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 3.01 |
UMB Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of UMB Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UMB Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8769 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7689 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for UMB Financial
The number of cover stories for UMB Financial depends on current market conditions and UMB Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UMB Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UMB Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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UMB Financial Short Properties
UMB Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when UMB Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UMB Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UMB Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMB Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 952.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Can Regional Banks industry sustain growth momentum? Does UMB have expansion opportunities? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMB Financial. If investors know UMB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Determining accurate worth demands scrutiny of both present operating results and projected expansion capacity. Evaluating UMB Financial demands reviewing these metrics collectively while recognizing certain factors exert disproportionate influence.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.126 | Dividend Share 1.63 | Earnings Share 9.29 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.676 |
UMB Financial's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on UMB's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate UMB Financial's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Market participants employ diverse analytical approaches to determine fair value and identify buying opportunities when prices dip below calculated worth. Since UMB Financial's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMB Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMB Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMB Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.