UMB Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| UMBF Stock | USD 120.24 1.19 0.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 119.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.37. UMB Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of UMB Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 8th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of UMB Financial's share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.058 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.6254 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.6953 | EPS Estimate Next Year 11.5421 | Wall Street Target Price 137.6923 |
Using UMB Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UMB Financial from the perspective of UMB Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UMB Financial using UMB Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UMB using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UMB Financial's stock price.
UMB Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in UMB Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UMB. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UMB Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 109.3355 | Short Percent 0.0465 | Short Ratio 6.64 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.7 M | 50 Day MA 112.7676 |
UMB Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to UMB Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in UMB. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UMB can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UMB Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UMB Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UMB Financial.
UMB Financial Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
UMB Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UMB Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UMB Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UMB Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when UMB Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 119.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.37. UMB Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 120.89 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 UMB Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast UMB Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in UMB Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for UMB Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current UMB Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to UMB Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of UMB Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in UMB. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
UMB Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine UMB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UMB using various technical indicators. When you analyze UMB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UMB Financial Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the UMB Financial's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-09-30 | Previous Quarter 11.1 B | Current Value 9 B | Quarterly Volatility 2.1 B |
UMB Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of UMB Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 119.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 4.90, and the sum of the absolute errors of 107.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UMB Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UMB Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
UMB Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest UMB Financial | UMB Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
UMB Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting UMB Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UMB Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 117.82 and 121.58, respectively. We have considered UMB Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UMB Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UMB Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.5379 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.7318 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0155 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 107.3711 |
Predictive Modules for UMB Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMB Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for UMB Financial
For every potential investor in UMB, whether a beginner or expert, UMB Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UMB Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UMB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UMB Financial's price trends.UMB Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UMB Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UMB Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UMB Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
UMB Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UMB Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UMB Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
UMB Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UMB Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UMB Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UMB Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify UMB Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7386.75 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.43) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 120.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 120.21 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.56) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.19) |
UMB Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of UMB Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UMB Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting umb stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
When determining whether UMB Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze UMB Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact UMB Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding UMB Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of UMB Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in UMB Stock please use our How to Invest in UMB Financial guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UMB Financial. If investors know UMB will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UMB Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.058 | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 8.96 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.696 |
The market value of UMB Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UMB that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UMB Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UMB Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UMB Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UMB Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UMB Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if UMB Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UMB Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.