Valley National Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VLY Stock | USD 12.13 0.22 1.85% |
Valley Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Valley National's share price is at 55. This entails that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Valley National, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.543 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2764 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9708 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2489 | Wall Street Target Price 14.0385 |
Using Valley National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valley National Bancorp from the perspective of Valley National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valley National using Valley National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valley using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valley National's stock price.
Valley National Short Interest
An investor who is long Valley National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valley National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valley National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 10.1259 | Short Percent 0.0758 | Short Ratio 5.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 32.1 M | 50 Day MA 11.6014 |
Valley Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.59.Valley National Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valley National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valley National Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valley National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valley National.
Valley National Implied Volatility | 0.8 |
Valley National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valley National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valley National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valley National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valley National's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.59. Valley National after-hype prediction price | USD 12.13 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Valley contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Valley National Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.05% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Valley National trading at USD 12.13, that is roughly USD 0.006065 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Valley National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Valley National Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Valley Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valley National's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valley National's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valley National stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valley National's open interest, investors have to compare it to Valley National's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valley National is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valley. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Valley National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Valley National's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-09-30 | Previous Quarter 1.2 B | Current Value 1.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 617.3 M |
Valley National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 12.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valley National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valley National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valley National | Valley National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Valley National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valley National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valley National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.89 and 14.05, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valley National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valley National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.673 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1546 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0136 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5876 |
Predictive Modules for Valley National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Valley National After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Valley National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Valley National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Valley National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Valley National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Valley National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Valley National's historical news coverage. Valley National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.54 and 13.72, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Valley National is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Valley National Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Valley National Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Valley National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Valley National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Valley National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.58 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.13 | 12.13 | 0.00 |
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Valley National Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Valley National Bancorp is traded for 12.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Valley is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on Valley National is about 1436.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.15. About 88.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.9. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. Valley National Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. The entity had 105:100 split on the 9th of May 2012. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections.Valley National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Valley National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Valley National's future price movements. Getting to know how Valley National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Valley National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COLB | Columbia Banking System | (0.09) | 15 per month | 1.16 | 0.08 | 3.20 | (1.94) | 8.86 | |
| SNV | Synovus Financial Corp | (0.09) | 2 per month | 1.99 | (0.01) | 2.93 | (2.49) | 9.63 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (0.09) | 2 per month | 1.51 | 0.04 | 2.99 | (2.01) | 8.67 | |
| BOKF | BOK Financial | (0.34) | 31 per month | 0.87 | 0.17 | 3.17 | (1.41) | 7.41 | |
| PB | Prosperity Bancshares | 0.74 | 4 per month | 0.89 | 0.1 | 2.92 | (1.21) | 7.30 | |
| FNB | FNB Corp | 0.19 | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.07 | 2.90 | (2.05) | 5.71 | |
| BMA | Banco Macro SA | (0.09) | 2 per month | 1.26 | 0.18 | 7.48 | (3.17) | 41.26 | |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | 0.09 | 8 per month | 1.15 | (0.02) | 2.40 | (2.03) | 6.30 | |
| HOMB | Home BancShares | 0.04 | 10 per month | 1.13 | 0.01 | 2.16 | (1.75) | 6.91 | |
| UBSI | United Bankshares | 0.74 | 8 per month | 0.98 | 0.12 | 3.05 | (1.94) | 8.75 |
Other Forecasting Options for Valley National
For every potential investor in Valley, whether a beginner or expert, Valley National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valley National's price trends.Valley National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valley National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valley National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valley National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valley National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valley National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valley National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valley National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valley National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valley National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valley National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valley National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Valley National
The number of cover stories for Valley National depends on current market conditions and Valley National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Valley National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Valley National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Valley National Short Properties
Valley National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Valley National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Valley National Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Valley National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Valley National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 518 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Additional Tools for Valley Stock Analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.