Valley National Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| VLY Stock | USD 11.69 0.01 0.09% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27. Valley Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Valley National's share price is below 20 . This entails that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.543 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2764 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9692 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.2473 | Wall Street Target Price 13.9615 |
Using Valley National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Valley National Bancorp from the perspective of Valley National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Valley National using Valley National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Valley using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Valley National's stock price.
Valley National Short Interest
An investor who is long Valley National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Valley National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Valley National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 9.9007 | Short Percent 0.0778 | Short Ratio 4.35 | Shares Short Prior Month 30.5 M | 50 Day MA 11.2884 |
Valley National Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Valley National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Valley. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Valley can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Valley National Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Valley National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Valley National.
Valley National Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Valley National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Valley National Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Valley National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Valley National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Valley National's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27. Valley National after-hype prediction price | USD 11.68 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Valley National to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Valley Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Valley National's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Valley National's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Valley National stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Valley National's open interest, investors have to compare it to Valley National's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Valley National is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Valley. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Valley National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Valley price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Valley using various technical indicators. When you analyze Valley charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Valley National's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-09-30 | Previous Quarter 1.2 B | Current Value 1.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 617.3 M |
Valley National Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Valley National Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 11.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Valley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Valley National's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Valley National Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Valley National | Valley National Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Valley National Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Valley National's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Valley National's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.11 and 13.05, respectively. We have considered Valley National's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Valley National stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Valley National stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.3954 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2011 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.2691 |
Predictive Modules for Valley National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Valley National Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Valley National
For every potential investor in Valley, whether a beginner or expert, Valley National's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Valley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Valley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Valley National's price trends.Valley National Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Valley National stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Valley National could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Valley National by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Valley National Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Valley National's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Valley National's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Valley National Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Valley National stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Valley National shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Valley National stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Valley National Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Valley National Risk Indicators
The analysis of Valley National's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Valley National's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting valley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Variance | 3.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.22) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| JBL | Jabil Circuit | |
| MRK | Merck Company | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc |
Additional Tools for Valley Stock Analysis
When running Valley National's price analysis, check to measure Valley National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Valley National is operating at the current time. Most of Valley National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Valley National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Valley National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Valley National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.