First Watch Restaurant Stock Analysis

FWRG Stock  USD 15.99  0.17  1.05%   
Below is the normalized historical share price chart for First Watch Restaurant extending back to October 01, 2021. This chart has been adjusted for all splits and dividends and is plotted against all major global economic recessions. As of today, the current price of First Watch stands at 15.99, as last reported on the 31st of January, with the highest price reaching 16.14 and the lowest price hitting 15.56 during the day.
IPO Date
1st of October 2021
200 Day MA
16.9493
50 Day MA
16.495
Beta
0.885
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
First Watch Restaurant holds a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.954. At this time, First Watch's Long Term Debt To Capitalization is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The First Watch's current Debt Equity Ratio is estimated to increase to 0.98, while Net Debt is projected to decrease to roughly 558.9 M. First Watch's financial risk is the risk to First Watch stockholders that is caused by an increase in debt.

Asset vs Debt

Equity vs Debt

First Watch's liquidity is one of the most fundamental aspects of both its future profitability and its ability to meet different types of ongoing financial obligations. First Watch's cash, liquid assets, total liabilities, and shareholder equity can be utilized to evaluate how much leverage the Company is using to sustain its current operations. For traders, higher-leverage indicators usually imply a higher risk to shareholders. In addition, it helps First Stock's retail investors understand whether an upcoming fall or rise in the market will negatively affect First Watch's stakeholders.
For most companies, including First Watch, marketable securities, inventories, and receivables are the most common assets that could be converted to cash. However, for First Watch Restaurant, the most critical issue when managing liquidity is ensuring that current assets are properly aligned with current liabilities. If they are not, First Watch's management will need to obtain alternative financing to ensure there are always enough cash equivalents on the balance sheet to meet obligations.
Price Book
1.627
Enterprise Value Ebitda
20.812
Price Sales
0.8434
Shares Float
55 M
Wall Street Target Price
22.1818
The current Total Stockholder Equity is estimated to decrease to about 504.3 M. The current Common Stock Shares Outstanding is estimated to decrease to about 61.9 M. At this time, First Watch's Price Book Value Ratio is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The First Watch's current Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is estimated to increase to 0.22, while Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is projected to decrease to 11.01.
First Watch Restaurant is undervalued with Real Value of 19.29 and Target Price of 22.18. The main objective of First Watch stock analysis is to determine its intrinsic value, which is an estimate of what First Watch Restaurant is worth, separate from its market price. There are two main types of First Watch's stock analysis: fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
The First Watch stock is traded in the USA on NASDAQ Exchange, with the market opening at 09:30:00 and closing at 16:00:00 every Mon,Tue,Wed,Thu,Fri except for officially observed holidays in the USA. Here, you can get updates on important government artifacts, including earning estimates, SEC corporate filings, announcements, and First Watch's ongoing operational relationships across important fundamental and technical indicators.
Check out Investing Opportunities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in First Watch Restaurant. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in producer price index.

First Stock Analysis Notes

About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. First Watch Restaurant has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.17. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida. First Watch operates under Restaurants classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 10000 people. To learn more about First Watch Restaurant call Christopher Tomasso at 941 907 9800 or check out https://www.firstwatch.com.

First Watch Quarterly Total Revenue

316.02 Million

First Watch Restaurant Investment Alerts

First Watch had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
First Watch Restaurant currently holds 809.55 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.
First Watch has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 98.0% of First Watch shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Receives Average Recommendation of Moderate Buy from Brokerages

First Largest EPS Surprises

Earnings surprises can significantly impact First Watch's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2025-03-11
2024-12-310.00330.010.0067203 
2024-11-07
2024-09-300.040.03-0.0125 
2022-08-09
2022-06-300.040.050.0125 
View All Earnings Estimates

First Watch Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Scores

First Watch's ESG score is a quantitative measure that evaluates First Watch's performance and commitment regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. These scores are becoming increasingly crucial in investment decision-making processes, providing insights into non-financial aspects of First Watch's operations that may have significant financial implications and affect First Watch's stock price as well as guide investors towards more socially responsible investments.

First Stock Institutional Investors

Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Granahan Investment Management Inc..2025-06-30
1.6 M
Neuberger Berman Group Llc2025-06-30
1.6 M
12 West Capital Management Lp2025-06-30
1.5 M
Riverbridge Partners Llc2025-06-30
1.3 M
Marshall Wace Asset Management Ltd2025-06-30
1.2 M
Loomis, Sayles & Company Lp2025-06-30
1.1 M
Brown Advisory Holdings Inc2025-06-30
1.1 M
Geode Capital Management, Llc2025-06-30
M
Wellington Management Company Llp2025-06-30
M
Advent International Lp2025-06-30
14.7 M
Blackrock Inc2025-06-30
2.9 M
Note, although First Watch's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

First Market Capitalization

The company currently falls under 'Small-Cap' category with a current market capitalization of 986.28 M.

First Profitablity

Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.03  0.03 
Return On Capital Employed 0.03  0.03 
Return On Assets 0.02  0.02 
Return On Equity 0.04  0.04 

Management Efficiency

First Watch Restaurant has return on total asset (ROA) of 0.0115 % which means that it generated a profit of $0.0115 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. First Watch's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well First Watch manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The First Watch's current Return On Tangible Assets is estimated to increase to 0.03. The First Watch's current Return On Capital Employed is estimated to increase to 0.03. At this time, First Watch's Return On Tangible Assets are most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The First Watch's current Intangibles To Total Assets is estimated to increase to 0.54, while Non Current Assets Total are projected to decrease to roughly 1.1 B.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share 8.49  6.66 
Tangible Book Value Per Share 0.76  0.80 
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA 18.49  19.42 
Price Book Value Ratio 2.45  2.77 
Enterprise Value Multiple 18.49  19.42 
Price Fair Value 2.45  2.77 
Enterprise Value1.6 B1.2 B
The strategic initiatives led by First Watch's management are central to its market success. By analyzing these initiatives, we provide a clear picture of the stock's growth prospects.
Operating Margin
0.036
Profit Margin
0.0043
Beta
0.885
Return On Assets
0.0115
Return On Equity
0.0083

Technical Drivers

As of the 31st of January, First Watch shows the Variance of 9.23, mean deviation of 2.28, and Standard Deviation of 3.04. First Watch Restaurant technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices. Please confirm First Watch Restaurant market risk adjusted performance, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the Information Ratio and skewness to decide if First Watch Restaurant is priced favorably, providing market reflects its regular price of 15.99 per share. Given that First Watch has information ratio of (0.07), we urge you to verify First Watch Restaurant's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

First Watch Restaurant Price Movement Analysis

Execute Study
The output start index for this execution was twenty-three with a total number of output elements of thirty-eight. The Bollinger Bands is very popular indicator that was developed by John Bollinger. It consist of three lines. First Watch middle band is a simple moving average of its typical price. The upper and lower bands are (N) standard deviations above and below the middle band. The bands widen and narrow when the volatility of the price is higher or lower, respectively. The upper and lower bands can also be interpreted as price targets for First Watch Restaurant. When the price bounces off of the lower band and crosses the middle band, then the upper band becomes the price target.

First Watch Restaurant Insider Trading Activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific First Watch insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on First Watch's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases First Watch insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.
 
Kussell William A over a week ago
Disposition of 6165 shares by Kussell William A of First Watch at 17.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Tipograph Rachel K over a month ago
Acquisition by Tipograph Rachel K of 9302 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Jay Wolszczak over a month ago
Acquisition by Jay Wolszczak of 139323 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Kussell William A over a month ago
Disposition of 6165 shares by Kussell William A of First Watch at 17.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Kussell William A over three months ago
Acquisition by Kussell William A of 5194 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Advent International, L.p. over three months ago
Disposition of 5000000 shares by Advent International, L.p. of First Watch at 17.7 subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Solheim Jostein over six months ago
Acquisition by Solheim Jostein of 5263 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Advent International, L.p. over six months ago
Disposition of 4500000 shares by Advent International, L.p. of First Watch at 14.7 subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Christopher Tomasso over six months ago
Disposition of 41346 shares by Christopher Tomasso of First Watch at 17.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Jemley Charles over six months ago
Acquisition by Jemley Charles of 15000 shares of First Watch at 16.5 subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Hope H Melville Iii over six months ago
Acquisition by Hope H Melville Iii of 48721 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
 
Christopher Tomasso over six months ago
Acquisition by Christopher Tomasso of 365408 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3

First Watch Outstanding Bonds

First Watch issues bonds to finance its operations. Corporate bonds make up one of the largest components of the U.S. bond market, which is considered the world's largest securities market. First Watch Restaurant uses the proceeds from bond sales for a wide variety of purposes, including financing ongoing mergers and acquisitions, buying new equipment, investing in research and development, buying back their own stock, paying dividends to shareholders, and even refinancing existing debt. Most First bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when First Watch Restaurant has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

First Watch Predictive Daily Indicators

First Watch intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of First Watch stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

First Watch Corporate Filings

13A
30th of January 2026
The form used by investors holding more than 5% of a company's stock, to report their beneficial ownership pursuant to Rule 13d-1 or Rule 13d-2 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934
ViewVerify
F4
26th of January 2026
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
8K
12th of January 2026
Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about
ViewVerify
F3
31st of December 2025
The report used by insiders such as officers, directors, and major shareholders (beneficial owners holding more than 10% of any class of the company's equity securities) to declare their ownership of a company's stock
ViewVerify
F4
30th of December 2025
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
8K
29th of December 2025
Report filed with the SEC to announce major events that shareholders should know about
ViewVerify
F4
11th of December 2025
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
13A
12th of November 2025
An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G
ViewVerify

First Watch Forecast Models

First Watch's time-series forecasting models are one of many First Watch's stock analysis techniques aimed at predicting future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary First Watch's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

First Watch Bond Ratings

First Watch Restaurant financial ratings play a critical role in determining how much First Watch have to pay to access credit markets, i.e., the amount of interest on their issued debt. The threshold between investment-grade and speculative-grade ratings has important market implications for First Watch's borrowing costs.
Piotroski F Score
7
StrongView
Beneish M Score
(2.97)
Unlikely ManipulatorView

First Watch Restaurant Debt to Cash Allocation

Many companies such as First Watch, eventually find out that there is only so much market out there to be conquered, and adding the next product or service is only half as profitable per unit as their current endeavors. Eventually, the company will reach a point where cash flows are strong, and extra cash is available but not fully utilized. In this case, the company may start buying back its stock from the public or issue more dividends.
First Watch Restaurant currently holds 809.55 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.95, which is about average as compared to similar companies. First Watch Restaurant has a current ratio of 0.74, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about First Watch's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.

First Watch Total Assets Over Time

First Watch Assets Financed by Debt

The debt-to-assets ratio shows the degree to which First Watch uses debt to finance its assets. It includes both long-term and short-term borrowings maturing within one year. It also includes both tangible and intangible assets, such as goodwill.

First Watch Debt Ratio

    
  39.0   
It seems as roughly 61% of First Watch's assets are financed through equity. Typically, companies with high debt-to-asset ratios are said to be highly leveraged. The higher the ratio, the greater risk will be associated with the First Watch's operation. In addition, a high debt-to-assets ratio may indicate a low borrowing capacity of First Watch, which in turn will lower the firm's financial flexibility.

First Watch Corporate Bonds Issued

Most First bonds can be classified according to their maturity, which is the date when First Watch Restaurant has to pay back the principal to investors. Maturities can be short-term, medium-term, or long-term (more than ten years). Longer-term bonds usually offer higher interest rates but may entail additional risks.

First Short Long Term Debt Total

Short Long Term Debt Total

598.28 Million

At this time, First Watch's Short and Long Term Debt Total is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years.

About First Stock Analysis

Stock analysis is the technique used by a trader or investor to examine and evaluate how First Watch prices is reacting to, or reflecting on a current market direction and economic conditions. It can be used to make informed decisions about market timing, and when buying or selling First shares will generate the highest return on investment. We also built our stock analysis module to help investors to gain an insight into the world economy as a whole, the stock market, thematic ideas. a specific sector, or an individual Stock such as First Watch. By using and applying First Stock analysis, traders can create a robust methodology for identifying First entry and exit points for their positions.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Pretax Profit Margin 0.04  0.04 
Operating Profit Margin 0.04  0.04 
Net Profit Margin 0.03  0.03 
Gross Profit Margin 0.19  0.22 

Current First Analysis - Recommendations

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. First analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. First analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target PriceAdvice# of Analysts
22.18Strong Buy11Odds
First Watch Restaurant current and past analyst recommendations published by a number of research institutions as well as average analyst consensus.
Most First analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand First stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of First Watch Restaurant, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to First conference calls.
First Analyst Advice Details

First Stock Analysis Indicators

First Watch Restaurant stock analysis indicators help investors evaluate how First Watch stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing and determine when trading First Watch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying First Watch stock analysis, traders can identify First Watch position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Begin Period Cash Flow50 M
Long Term Debt189 M
Common Stock Shares Outstanding62.4 M
Total Stockholder Equity595.4 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-206.7 M
Tax Provision9.1 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y0.634
Property Plant And Equipment Net889.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments33.3 M
Cash33.3 M
Accounts PayableM
Net Debt776.2 M
50 Day M A16.495
Total Current Liabilities138.5 M
Other Operating Expenses977 M
Non Current Assets Total1.5 B
Forward Price Earnings114.9425
Non Currrent Assets Other3.3 M
Stock Based Compensation8.5 M

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When running First Watch's price analysis, check to measure First Watch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Watch is operating at the current time. Most of First Watch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Watch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Watch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Watch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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