First Watch Restaurant Stock Alpha and Beta Analysis

FWRG Stock  USD 15.43  0.48  3.02%   
This module allows you to check different measures of market premium (i.e., alpha and beta) for all equities such as First Watch Restaurant. It also helps investors analyze the systematic and unsystematic risks associated with investing in First Watch over a specified time horizon. Remember, high First Watch's alpha is almost always a sign of good performance; however, a high beta will depend on investors' risk tolerance level and may signal increased volatility and potential future overvaluation. Key technical indicators related to First Watch's market risk premium analysis include:
Beta
1.77
Alpha
(0.08)
Risk
3.32
Sharpe Ratio
0.0069
Expected Return
0.0229
Please note that although First Watch alpha is a measure of relative return and represented here as a single number, it indicates the percentage above or below your selected benchmark (i.e., Dow Jones Industrial index.) So in this particular case, First Watch did 0.08  worse than the index. Remember, a high alpha is always good. Beta, on the other hand, measures the volatility (or risk) of an investment. It is an indication of First Watch Restaurant stock's relative risk over its benchmark. First Watch Restaurant has a beta of 1.77  . As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, First Watch will likely underperform. At this time, First Watch's Price Book Value Ratio is most likely to increase slightly in the upcoming years. The First Watch's current Enterprise Value Multiple is estimated to increase to 19.42, while Book Value Per Share is projected to decrease to 6.66.

Enterprise Value

1.22 Billion

Alpha is a measure of relative performance on a risk-adjusted basis, while beta measures volatility against the benchmark. The goal is to know if an investor is being compensated for the volatility risk taken. The return on investment might be better than its reference but still not compensate for the assumption of the risk.
Check out First Watch Backtesting, First Watch Valuation, First Watch Correlation, First Watch Hype Analysis, First Watch Volatility, First Watch History and analyze First Watch Performance.

First Watch Market Premiums

Investors always prefer to have the highest possible return on investment, coupled with the lowest possible volatility. First Watch market risk premium is the additional return an investor will receive from holding First Watch long position in a well-diversified portfolio. The market premium is part of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), which most analysts and investors use to calculate the acceptable rate of return on investment in First Watch. At the center of the CAPM is the concept of risk and reward, which is usually communicated by investors using alpha and beta measures. Alpha and beta are two of the key measurements used to evaluate First Watch's performance over market.
α-0.08   β1.77

First Watch expected buy-and-hold returns

Although buy-and-hold investment strategy may not appeal to all investors, it may be used as a good measure of First Watch's Buy-and-hold return. Our buy-and-hold chart shows how First Watch performed over your current time horizon against a typical interest-earning bank account and a selected benchmark.

First Watch Market Price Analysis

Market price analysis indicators help investors to evaluate how First Watch stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Watch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying First Watch stock market price indicators, traders can identify First Watch position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

First Watch Return and Market Media

The median price of First Watch for the period between Wed, Oct 1, 2025 and Tue, Dec 30, 2025 is 16.68 with a coefficient of variation of 5.73. The daily time series for the period is distributed with a sample standard deviation of 0.97, arithmetic mean of 16.85, and mean deviation of 0.84. The Stock received substential amount of media coverage during this period.
 Price Growth (%)  
       Timeline  
1
Acquisition by Kussell William A of 5194 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
10/17/2025
2
Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC Sells 198,638 Shares of First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. FWRG
10/21/2025
3
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights Record Revenue Growth ...
11/04/2025
4
Acquisition by Jay Wolszczak of 14118 shares of First Watch subject to Rule 16b-3
11/19/2025
5
A Fresh Look at First Watch Valuation Following Standout Q3 Earnings and Operating Gains
11/26/2025
6
Loomis Sayles Co. L P Takes Position in First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. FWRG - MarketBeat
12/02/2025
7
Disposition of 6165 shares by Kussell William A of First Watch at 17.0 subject to Rule 16b-3
12/09/2025
8
Jefferies Remains a Buy on First Watch Restaurant Group - The Globe and Mail
12/16/2025
9
Rep. Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. Purchases Shares of DoorDash, Inc.
12/18/2025
10
How Reliance on Lower Egg Costs Will Impact First Watch Restaurant Group Investors - Sahm
12/23/2025

About First Watch Beta and Alpha

For many years both, Alpha and Beta indicators are used by professional money managers as critical performance measurement tools across virtually all financial instruments including First or other stocks. Alpha measures the amount that position in First Watch Restaurant has returned in comparison to a selected market index or another relevant benchmark. In other words, Alpha is the excess return on an investment relative to the performance of your selected benchmark. Beta, on the other hand, measures the relative risk of your investment.
 2022 2023 2025 (projected)
Days Sales Outstanding3.082.263.4
PTB Ratio1.532.132.77

First Watch Upcoming Company Events

As portrayed in its financial statements, the presentation of First Watch's financial position is often influenced by management's estimates, judgments, and sometimes even manipulations. In the best case, First Watch's leadership is honest, while the outside auditors are strict and uncompromising. Whatever the case, investors should always follow all of First Watch's public filing events to personally review all filings and be reasonable and skeptical to interpret all of the financial statements of First Watch. Please utilize our Beneish M Score to check the likelihood of First Watch's management manipulating its earnings.
5th of March 2024
Upcoming Quarterly Report
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7th of May 2024
Next Financial Report
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31st of December 2023
Next Fiscal Quarter End
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5th of March 2024
Next Fiscal Year End
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30th of September 2023
Last Quarter Report
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31st of December 2022
Last Financial Announcement
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When determining whether First Watch Restaurant is a strong investment it is important to analyze First Watch's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact First Watch's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding First Stock, refer to the following important reports:
First Watch technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of First Watch technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of First Watch trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...