First Merchants Stock Technical Analysis
| FRME Stock | USD 40.89 1.13 2.84% |
As of the 2nd of February, First Merchants shows the Downside Deviation of 1.35, coefficient of variation of 1047.02, and Mean Deviation of 1.09. First Merchants technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices. Please confirm First Merchants variance, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and semi variance to decide if First Merchants is priced favorably, providing market reflects its regular price of 40.89 per share. Given that First Merchants has jensen alpha of 0.1029, we urge you to verify First Merchants's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.
First Merchants Momentum Analysis
Momentum indicators are widely used technical indicators which help to measure the pace at which the price of specific equity, such as First, fluctuates. Many momentum indicators also complement each other and can be helpful when the market is rising or falling as compared to FirstFirst Merchants' Momentum analyses are specifically helpful, as they help investors time the market using mark points where the market can reverse. The reversal spots are usually identified through divergence between price movement and momentum.First Merchants Analyst Consensus
| Target Price | Consensus | # of Analysts | |
| 45.75 | Strong Buy | 6 | Odds |
Most First analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand First stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of First Merchants, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to First conference calls.
Will Regional Banks sector continue expanding? Could First diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Merchants. Market participants price First higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every First Merchants data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.10) | Dividend Share 1.43 | Earnings Share 3.96 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) |
First Merchants's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on First's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate First Merchants' intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since First Merchants' trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Merchants' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Merchants is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Merchants' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Merchants 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Merchants' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Merchants.
| 11/04/2025 |
| 02/02/2026 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Merchants on November 4, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Merchants or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Merchants over 90 days. First Merchants is related to or competes with First Financial, Banner, Enterprise Financial, Hilltop Holdings, First Busey, First Bancorp, and NBT Bancorp. First Merchants Corporation operates as the financial holding company for First Merchants Bank that provides community b... More
First Merchants Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Merchants' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Merchants upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0659 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.8 |
First Merchants Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Merchants' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Merchants' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Merchants historical prices to predict the future First Merchants' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0743 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1029 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0617 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0742 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1462 |
First Merchants February 2, 2026 Technical Indicators
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0743 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1562 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1047.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Variance | 2.31 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0659 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1029 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0617 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0742 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1462 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) | |||
| Skewness | 0.4902 | |||
| Kurtosis | 1.76 |
First Merchants Backtested Returns
First Merchants appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. First Merchants secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.16, which denotes the company had a 0.16 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for First Merchants, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize First Merchants' Downside Deviation of 1.35, mean deviation of 1.09, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1047.02 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, First Merchants holds a performance score of 12. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.92, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. First Merchants returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Merchants is expected to follow. Please check First Merchants' semi variance, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and accumulation distribution , to make a quick decision on whether First Merchants' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
First Merchants has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Merchants time series from 4th of November 2025 to 19th of December 2025 and 19th of December 2025 to 2nd of February 2026. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Merchants price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current First Merchants price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.14 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.78 |
First Merchants technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
First Merchants Technical Analysis
The output start index for this execution was twenty-four with a total number of output elements of thirty-seven. The Average True Range was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1970s. It is one of components of the Welles Wilder Directional Movement indicators. The ATR is a measure of First Merchants volatility. High ATR values indicate high volatility, and low values indicate low volatility.
About First Merchants Technical Analysis
The technical analysis module can be used to analyzes prices, returns, volume, basic money flow, and other market information and help investors to determine the real value of First Merchants on a daily or weekly bases. We use both bottom-up as well as top-down valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of First Merchants based on its technical analysis. In general, a bottom-up approach, as applied to this company, focuses on First Merchants price pattern first instead of the macroeconomic environment surrounding First Merchants. By analyzing First Merchants's financials, daily price indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, momentum ratios, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of First Merchants's intrinsic value. As compared to a bottom-up approach, our top-down model examines the macroeconomic factors that affect the industry/economy before zooming in to First Merchants specific price patterns or momentum indicators. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0373 | 0.0359 | 0.0382 | 0.0356 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.2 | 2.21 | 2.34 | 1.94 |
First Merchants February 2, 2026 Technical Indicators
Most technical analysis of First help investors determine whether a current trend will continue and, if not, when it will shift. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for First from various momentum indicators to cycle indicators. When you analyze First charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at different other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0743 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1562 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1047.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Variance | 2.31 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0659 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1029 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0617 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0742 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1462 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.32 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) | |||
| Skewness | 0.4902 | |||
| Kurtosis | 1.76 |
First Merchants February 2, 2026 Daily Trend Indicators
Traders often use several different daily volumes and price technical indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as First stock. With literally thousands of different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20,004 | ||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.70 | ||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | ||
| Day Median Price | 40.47 | ||
| Day Typical Price | 40.61 | ||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.99 |
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Merchants' price analysis, check to measure First Merchants' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Merchants is operating at the current time. Most of First Merchants' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Merchants' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Merchants' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Merchants to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Portfolio Dashboard Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities |