Air Lease Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AL Stock | USD 64.37 0.05 0.08% |
Air Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Air Lease's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Air Lease's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Air Lease fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Air Lease's stock price is about 61. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Air, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.476 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2727 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.8328 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.3518 | Wall Street Target Price 65 |
Using Air Lease hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air Lease from the perspective of Air Lease response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Air Lease using Air Lease's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Air using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Air Lease's stock price.
Air Lease Short Interest
An investor who is long Air Lease may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Air Lease and may potentially protect profits, hedge Air Lease with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 59.3672 | Short Percent 0.0238 | Short Ratio 1.29 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 64.079 |
Air Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Lease on the next trading day is expected to be 64.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.88.Air Lease Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Air Lease's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Air. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Air can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Air Lease. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Air Lease's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Air Lease.
Air Lease Implied Volatility | 0.21 |
Air Lease's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Air Lease stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Air Lease's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Air Lease stock will not fluctuate a lot when Air Lease's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Lease on the next trading day is expected to be 64.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.88. Air Lease after-hype prediction price | USD 64.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air Lease to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Air contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Air Lease will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0131% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Air Lease trading at USD 64.37, that is roughly USD 0.008449 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Air Lease's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Air Lease options at the current volatility level of 0.21%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Air Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Air Lease's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Air Lease's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Air Lease stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Air Lease's open interest, investors have to compare it to Air Lease's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Air Lease is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Air. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Air Lease Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Air Lease Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Air Lease's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 454.8 M | Current Value 452.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 409.7 M |
Air Lease Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Air Lease on the next trading day is expected to be 64.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air Lease's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Air Lease Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Air Lease | Air Lease Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Air Lease Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Air Lease's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air Lease's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.43 and 64.69, respectively. We have considered Air Lease's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air Lease stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air Lease stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8279 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0625 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.001 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.8776 |
Predictive Modules for Air Lease
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air Lease. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Air Lease After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air Lease at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air Lease or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Air Lease, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air Lease Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air Lease's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air Lease's historical news coverage. Air Lease's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 64.24 and 64.50, respectively. We have considered Air Lease's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air Lease is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air Lease is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air Lease Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air Lease is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air Lease backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air Lease, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
64.37 | 64.37 | 0.00 |
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Air Lease Hype Timeline
As of January 27, 2026 Air Lease is listed for 64.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Air is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 2.37%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on Air Lease is about 48.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 64.38. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.86. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Air Lease has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.91. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.62. The firm last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2025. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air Lease to cross-verify your projections.Air Lease Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air Lease's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air Lease's future price movements. Getting to know how Air Lease's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air Lease may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| R | Ryder System | 1.21 | 9 per month | 2.81 | (0.0007) | 3.54 | (3.03) | 12.37 | |
| PONY | Pony AI American | 0.62 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 10.83 | (7.73) | 22.01 | |
| RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings PLC | (0.14) | 6 per month | 1.08 | 0.1 | 3.75 | (1.79) | 7.50 | |
| ADT | ADT Inc | 0.43 | 29 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.73 | (2.31) | 9.78 | |
| GATX | GATX Corporation | 0.05 | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.02 | 1.96 | (1.90) | 5.75 | |
| TTC | Toro Co | (0.06) | 12 per month | 0.85 | 0.10 | 2.94 | (1.83) | 13.49 | |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing | (1.13) | 11 per month | 1.54 | (0.01) | 2.84 | (2.63) | 9.75 | |
| FSS | Federal Signal | (1.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.11 | (2.31) | 13.86 | |
| FLR | Fluor | (0.27) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.41 | (4.67) | 9.28 | |
| LOAR | Loar Holdings | 3.10 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.72 | (3.94) | 9.61 |
Other Forecasting Options for Air Lease
For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air Lease's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air Lease's price trends.Air Lease Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air Lease stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air Lease could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air Lease by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Air Lease Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air Lease stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air Lease shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air Lease stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Air Lease entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Air Lease Risk Indicators
The analysis of Air Lease's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air Lease's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0955 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1285 | |||
| Variance | 0.0165 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0163 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.01) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.12) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Air Lease
The number of cover stories for Air Lease depends on current market conditions and Air Lease's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air Lease is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air Lease's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Air Lease Short Properties
Air Lease's future price predictability will typically decrease when Air Lease's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air Lease often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air Lease's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air Lease's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 472.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air Lease to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Air Stock please use our How to buy in Air Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Trading Companies & Distributors space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Air Lease. If investors know Air will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Air Lease listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.476 | Dividend Share 0.88 | Earnings Share 8.62 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.051 |
The market value of Air Lease is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Air that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Air Lease's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Air Lease's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Air Lease's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Air Lease's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Air Lease's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Air Lease is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Air Lease's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.