Alarum Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALAR Stock | 8.13 0.38 4.47% |
Alarum Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Alarum Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alarum Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alarum Technologies fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength indicator of Alarum Technologies' share price is approaching 35. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alarum Technologies, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.02 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.06 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.11 | Wall Street Target Price 23.5 |
Using Alarum Technologies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alarum Technologies from the perspective of Alarum Technologies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alarum Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.39. Alarum Technologies after-hype prediction price | USD 8.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alarum Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Alarum Technologies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alarum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alarum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alarum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alarum Technologies Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Alarum Technologies' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2014-03-31 | Previous Quarter 14.9 M | Current Value 14.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 6.5 M |
Alarum Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alarum Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.39.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alarum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alarum Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alarum Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alarum Technologies | Alarum Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alarum Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alarum Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alarum Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.55 and 11.20, respectively. We have considered Alarum Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alarum Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alarum Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1459 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2687 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0268 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.3892 |
Predictive Modules for Alarum Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alarum Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alarum Technologies After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alarum Technologies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alarum Technologies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alarum Technologies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alarum Technologies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alarum Technologies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alarum Technologies' historical news coverage. Alarum Technologies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.75 and 12.39, respectively. We have considered Alarum Technologies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alarum Technologies is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alarum Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alarum Technologies Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alarum Technologies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alarum Technologies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alarum Technologies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.96 | 4.32 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 5 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.13 | 8.07 | 0.74 |
|
Alarum Technologies Hype Timeline
Alarum Technologies is presently traded for 8.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Alarum is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 8.07. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.74%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.96%. The volatility of related hype on Alarum Technologies is about 9191.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.18. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.89. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alarum Technologies last dividend was issued on the 5th of June 2018. The entity had 1:10 split on the 8th of November 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alarum Technologies to cross-verify your projections.Alarum Technologies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alarum Technologies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alarum Technologies' future price movements. Getting to know how Alarum Technologies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alarum Technologies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HPAI | Helport AI Limited | 0.09 | 8 per month | 4.45 | 0.02 | 7.14 | (6.85) | 18.92 | |
| ZENA | ZenaTech | 0.20 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 11.75 | (7.35) | 28.70 | |
| VHC | VirnetX Holding Corp | (0.06) | 2 per month | 4.69 | 0.04 | 8.47 | (7.17) | 25.58 | |
| MLGO | MicroAlgo | 0.12 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.69 | (10.15) | 24.69 | |
| MAPS | WM Technology | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.17 | (5.88) | 25.13 | |
| NRDY | Nerdy Inc | 0.02 | 30 per month | 3.81 | (0.01) | 9.17 | (5.93) | 20.36 | |
| RDZN | Roadzen | 0.02 | 8 per month | 3.97 | 0.08 | 13.74 | (6.12) | 32.71 | |
| ASYS | Amtech Systems | 0.66 | 11 per month | 2.26 | 0.28 | 6.84 | (3.43) | 23.86 | |
| MX | MagnaChip Semiconductor | (0.20) | 10 per month | 3.47 | (0.01) | 4.84 | (5.86) | 18.85 | |
| OSS | One Stop Systems | (0.39) | 9 per month | 4.27 | 0.16 | 22.03 | (7.44) | 38.58 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alarum Technologies
For every potential investor in Alarum, whether a beginner or expert, Alarum Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alarum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alarum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alarum Technologies' price trends.Alarum Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alarum Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alarum Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alarum Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alarum Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alarum Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alarum Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alarum Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alarum Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alarum Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alarum Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alarum Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alarum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.31 | |||
| Variance | 18.62 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alarum Technologies
The number of cover stories for Alarum Technologies depends on current market conditions and Alarum Technologies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alarum Technologies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alarum Technologies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Alarum Technologies Short Properties
Alarum Technologies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Alarum Technologies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alarum Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alarum Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alarum Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 15.1 M |
Additional Tools for Alarum Stock Analysis
When running Alarum Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Alarum Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alarum Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Alarum Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alarum Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alarum Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alarum Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.