Alarum Technologies Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ALAR Stock | 15.20 1.91 14.37% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alarum Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 15.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.97. Alarum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Alarum Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Alarum Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Alarum Technologies fundamentals over time.
Alarum |
Alarum Technologies Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alarum Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 15.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.80, mean absolute percentage error of 1.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 46.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alarum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alarum Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alarum Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alarum Technologies | Alarum Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alarum Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alarum Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alarum Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.04 and 23.48, respectively. We have considered Alarum Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alarum Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alarum Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0208 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7961 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0604 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 46.97 |
Predictive Modules for Alarum Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alarum Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alarum Technologies
For every potential investor in Alarum, whether a beginner or expert, Alarum Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alarum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alarum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alarum Technologies' price trends.View Alarum Technologies Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alarum Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alarum Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alarum Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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Alarum Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alarum Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alarum Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alarum Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alarum Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 85534.32 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.7208 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.14 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.54 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.91 |
Alarum Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alarum Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alarum Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alarum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.83 | |||
| Variance | 77.9 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Alarum Technologies
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alarum Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alarum Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Alarum Stock
| 0.4 | BOX | Box Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.36 | FAAS | DigiAsia Corp Symbol Change | PairCorr |
| 0.33 | GB | Global Blue Group Upward Rally | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alarum Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alarum Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alarum Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alarum Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Alarum Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alarum Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alarum Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alarum Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Alarum Stock Analysis
When running Alarum Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Alarum Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alarum Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Alarum Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alarum Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alarum Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alarum Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.