American Express Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AXP Stock | USD 293.00 5.29 1.84% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 287.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 217.64. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although American Express' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Express' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Express fundamentals over time.
American |
Open Interest Against 2024-11-22 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Express' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Express' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Express stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Express' open interest, investors have to compare it to American Express' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Express is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Express Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the American Express' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1989-12-31 | Previous Quarter 52.7 B | Current Value 47.8 B | Quarterly Volatility 12.2 B |
American Express Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 287.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.51, mean absolute percentage error of 20.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 217.64.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Express Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Express | American Express Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Express Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 285.99 and 289.34, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5103 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 217.6407 |
Predictive Modules for American Express
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for American Express
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Express' price trends.American Express Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Express Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Express' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Express' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
American Express Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Express entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Express Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with American Express
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Stock
| 0.83 | AC | Associated Capital | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | GS | Goldman Sachs Group Fiscal Year End 21st of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.85 | MC | Moelis Potential Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | SF | Stifel Financial Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | TW | Tradeweb Markets Normal Trading | PairCorr |
Moving against American Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Express to buy it.
The correlation of American Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.