American Express Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AXP Stock | USD 361.69 6.33 1.72% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 368.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 334.83. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although American Express' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of American Express' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of American Express fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength indicator of American Express' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.186 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.628 | EPS Estimate Current Year 15.4018 | EPS Estimate Next Year 17.3798 | Wall Street Target Price 377.22 |
Using American Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Express from the perspective of American Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Express using American Express' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Express' stock price.
American Express Short Interest
An investor who is long American Express may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Express and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Express with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 323.4922 | Short Percent 0.0171 | Short Ratio 3.72 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.3 M | 50 Day MA 367.8338 |
American Express Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Express' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Express. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American Express Implied Volatility | 0.4 |
American Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Express' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 368.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 334.83. American Express after-hype prediction price | USD 361.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Express to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Express will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.025% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With American Express trading at USD 361.69, that is roughly USD 0.0904 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Express' daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Express options at the current volatility level of 0.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 American Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast American Express' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in American Express' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for American Express stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current American Express' open interest, investors have to compare it to American Express' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of American Express is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in American. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
American Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Express Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the American Express' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1989-12-31 | Previous Quarter 57.8 B | Current Value 53.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 13.4 B |
American Express Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Express on the next trading day is expected to be 368.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.40, mean absolute percentage error of 42.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 334.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Express' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Express Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Express | American Express Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Express Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Express' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Express' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 367.31 and 370.40, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Express stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Express stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.7056 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.4006 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 334.8346 |
Predictive Modules for American Express
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Express. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Express After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Express' historical news coverage. American Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 360.07 and 363.15, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Express is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Express Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.54 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 5 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
361.69 | 361.61 | 0.02 |
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American Express Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January American Express is traded for 361.69. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. American is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 361.61. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 40.42%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on American Express is about 73.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 361.73. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.86. American Express recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The firm had 10000:8753 split on the 3rd of October 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Express to cross-verify your projections.American Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Express' future price movements. Getting to know how American Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MA | Mastercard | 4.98 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.60 | (1.77) | 8.31 | |
| V | Visa Class A | 4.98 | 22 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.30 | (1.62) | 10.57 | |
| COF | Capital One Financial | 4.98 | 3 per month | 2.67 | (0.02) | 2.69 | (4.36) | 9.43 | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings | (0.58) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.34 | (3.30) | 8.51 | |
| ALLY | Ally Financial | 0.14 | 17 per month | 1.56 | (0.02) | 2.77 | (2.73) | 8.03 | |
| GS | Goldman Sachs Group | 1.82 | 7 per month | 1.34 | 0.13 | 3.73 | (1.94) | 8.40 | |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | (1.73) | 5 per month | 1.38 | (0.03) | 2.15 | (1.95) | 8.12 | |
| CAT | Caterpillar | 2.24 | 6 per month | 1.81 | 0.12 | 3.53 | (4.03) | 16.22 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Express
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Express' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Express' price trends.American Express Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Express stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Express could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Express by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Express Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Express stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Express shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Express stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Express entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 42363.31 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 361.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 361.23 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.47) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (6.33) |
American Express Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Express' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Express' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.94 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.67 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Express
The number of cover stories for American Express depends on current market conditions and American Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Express Short Properties
American Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Express often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 713 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.5 B |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.