American Express Stock Price Patterns
| AXP Stock | USD 342.88 11.13 3.14% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.166 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.9852 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.5588 | EPS Estimate Next Year 20.0698 | Wall Street Target Price 374.8033 |
Using American Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Express from the perspective of American Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Express using American Express' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Express' stock price.
American Express Short Interest
An investor who is long American Express may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Express and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Express with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 331.0584 | Short Percent 0.0134 | Short Ratio 2.4 | Shares Short Prior Month 9.2 M | 50 Day MA 367.9496 |
American Express Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Express' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Express. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Express' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Express.
American Express Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
American Express' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Express stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Express' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Express stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Express' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Express to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Express after-hype prediction price | USD 345.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Express will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With American Express trading at USD 342.88, that is roughly USD 0.0793 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Express' daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Express options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Check out American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Express After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Express' historical news coverage. American Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 344.31 and 347.45, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Express is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Express Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 1.61 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 5 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
342.88 | 345.88 | 0.00 |
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American Express Hype Timeline
On the 12th of February 2026 American Express is traded for 342.88. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. American is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Express is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 342.88. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.79. American Express recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.97. The entity last dividend was issued on the 2nd of January 2026. The firm had 10000:8753 split on the 3rd of October 2005. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 5 days. Check out American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Express' future price movements. Getting to know how American Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGM | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.06 | 2.95 | (2.17) | 6.71 | |
| LU | Lufax Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.89 | 0.01 | 4.15 | (3.31) | 11.67 | |
| MSDL | Morgan Stanley Direct | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.31 | (3.02) | 6.37 | |
| BLX | Foreign Trade Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.1 | 2.60 | (1.70) | 4.63 |
American Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Express Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Express stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Express, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Express based on analysis of American Express hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Express's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Express's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0129 | 0.009447 | 0.008833 | 0.008391 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.04 | 2.85 | 3.2 | 3.36 |
Pair Trading with American Express
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Stock
Moving against American Stock
| 0.56 | PG | Procter Gamble | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | KO | Coca Cola Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | T | ATT Inc Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | CVX | Chevron Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | VZ | Verizon Communications Aggressive Push | PairCorr |
| 0.35 | HD | Home Depot Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Express to buy it.
The correlation of American Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.