American Express Stock Price Prediction
| AXP Stock | USD 301.30 8.30 2.83% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
64
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.058 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.98 | EPS Estimate Current Year 13.905 | EPS Estimate Next Year 15.1324 | Wall Street Target Price 278.2542 |
Using American Express hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Express from the perspective of American Express response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
American Express Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Express' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Express. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Express' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Express.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Express to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Express after-hype prediction price | USD 302.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Express After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Express at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Express or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Express, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Express Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Express' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Express' historical news coverage. American Express' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 300.64 and 304.00, respectively. We have considered American Express' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Express is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Express is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Express Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Express is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Express backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Express, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.69 | 1.02 | 0.25 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
301.30 | 302.32 | 0.34 |
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American Express Hype Timeline
On the 25th of November American Express is traded for 301.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.25. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 302.32 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 46.17%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.34%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.28%. The volatility of related hype on American Express is about 185.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 301.05. The company reported the last year's revenue of 60.36 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.37 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 28.78 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out American Express Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Express Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Express' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Express' future price movements. Getting to know how American Express' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Express may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SLM | SLM Corp | (0.24) | 9 per month | 1.41 | 0.12 | 3.71 | (2.59) | 15.03 | |
| IX | Orix Corp Ads | (0.83) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.12 | (2.89) | 8.46 | |
| FCFS | FirstCash | (3.94) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.31 | (2.42) | 9.46 | |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp | 0.05 | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.14 | 3.00 | (2.53) | 7.31 | |
| OPRT | Oportun Financial Corp | 0.03 | 9 per month | 3.32 | (0) | 7.55 | (5.05) | 16.16 | |
| NAVI | Navient Corp | 0.27 | 10 per month | 2.09 | (0.04) | 3.27 | (3.50) | 13.67 | |
| SLMBP | SLM Corp Pb | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.64 | (0.23) | 0.75 | (0.46) | 3.53 | |
| DFS | Discover Financial Services | (2.61) | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.12 | 4.04 | (2.77) | 24.36 |
American Express Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Express Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Express stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Express, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Express based on analysis of American Express hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Express's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Express's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0112 | 0.0141 | 0.0129 | 0.0208 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.05 | 2.1 | 2.28 | 1.59 |
Story Coverage note for American Express
The number of cover stories for American Express depends on current market conditions and American Express' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Express is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Express' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Express Short Properties
American Express' future price predictability will typically decrease when American Express' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Express often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Express' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Express' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 736 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 86.1 B |
Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.