AutoZone Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AZO Stock | USD 3,782 17.85 0.47% |
AutoZone Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although AutoZone's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AutoZone's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AutoZone fundamentals over time.
The value of RSI of AutoZone's stock price is about 61. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling AutoZone, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Current Year 147.3955 | EPS Estimate Next Year 174.2207 | Wall Street Target Price 4.2 K | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 32.4014 |
Using AutoZone hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AutoZone from the perspective of AutoZone response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AutoZone using AutoZone's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AutoZone using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AutoZone's stock price.
AutoZone Short Interest
An investor who is long AutoZone may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AutoZone and may potentially protect profits, hedge AutoZone with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 3.8 K | Short Percent 0.0184 | Short Ratio 1.52 | Shares Short Prior Month 317.6 K | 50 Day MA 3.6 K |
AutoZone Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AutoZone on the next trading day is expected to be 3,782 with a mean absolute deviation of 42.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,553.AutoZone Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AutoZone's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AutoZone. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AutoZone can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AutoZone. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AutoZone's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AutoZone.
AutoZone Implied Volatility | 0.47 |
AutoZone's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AutoZone stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AutoZone's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AutoZone stock will not fluctuate a lot when AutoZone's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AutoZone on the next trading day is expected to be 3,782 with a mean absolute deviation of 42.55 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,553. AutoZone after-hype prediction price | USD 3782.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AutoZone to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AutoZone contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AutoZone will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0294% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AutoZone trading at USD 3782.14, that is roughly USD 1.11 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AutoZone's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AutoZone options at the current volatility level of 0.47%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AutoZone Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AutoZone's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AutoZone's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AutoZone stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AutoZone's open interest, investors have to compare it to AutoZone's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AutoZone is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AutoZone. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AutoZone Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AutoZone price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AutoZone using various technical indicators. When you analyze AutoZone charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AutoZone Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AutoZone on the next trading day is expected to be 3,782 with a mean absolute deviation of 42.55, mean absolute percentage error of 3,663, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,553.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AutoZone Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AutoZone's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AutoZone Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AutoZone | AutoZone Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AutoZone Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AutoZone's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AutoZone's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,780 and 3,784, respectively. We have considered AutoZone's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AutoZone stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AutoZone stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.4786 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.7952 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 42.5505 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2553.0301 |
Predictive Modules for AutoZone
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AutoZone. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AutoZone After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AutoZone at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AutoZone or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AutoZone, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AutoZone Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AutoZone's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AutoZone's historical news coverage. AutoZone's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3,780 and 3,784, respectively. We have considered AutoZone's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AutoZone is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AutoZone is based on 3 months time horizon.
AutoZone Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AutoZone is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AutoZone backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AutoZone, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.68 | 3.92 | 0.05 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3,782 | 3,782 | 0.00 |
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AutoZone Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January AutoZone is traded for 3,782. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 3.92, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. AutoZone is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 2.57%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on AutoZone is about 183.41%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3,782. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.0. AutoZone recorded earning per share (EPS) of 143.34. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of October 2010. The firm had 2:1 split on the 21st of April 1994. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AutoZone to cross-verify your projections.AutoZone Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AutoZone's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AutoZone's future price movements. Getting to know how AutoZone's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AutoZone may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ORLY | OReilly Automotive | (1.42) | 9 per month | 1.38 | (0.02) | 2.32 | (1.85) | 6.34 | |
| GM | General Motors | 1.67 | 7 per month | 1.15 | 0.15 | 4.01 | (2.41) | 8.44 | |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | (1.57) | 7 per month | 0.96 | 0.06 | 2.63 | (2.00) | 7.52 | |
| ROST | Ross Stores | 1.22 | 8 per month | 0.55 | 0.14 | 2.16 | (1.23) | 11.17 | |
| F | Ford Motor | (0.07) | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.06 | 3.65 | (2.35) | 16.30 | |
| RACE | Ferrari NV | (2.46) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.98 | (2.82) | 7.22 | |
| CPNG | Coupang LLC | (0.33) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 2.66 | (5.07) | 11.82 | |
| CPRT | Copart Inc | 0.32 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.02 | (3.52) | 6.69 | |
| MAR | Marriott International | (6.84) | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.1 | 3.48 | (1.63) | 8.46 | |
| TCOM | Trip Group Ltd | 0.32 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.70 | (3.34) | 21.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for AutoZone
For every potential investor in AutoZone, whether a beginner or expert, AutoZone's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AutoZone Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AutoZone. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AutoZone's price trends.AutoZone Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AutoZone stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AutoZone could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AutoZone by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AutoZone Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AutoZone stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AutoZone shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AutoZone stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AutoZone entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3782.14 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3782.14 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (8.92) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (17.85) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 61.42 |
AutoZone Risk Indicators
The analysis of AutoZone's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AutoZone's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting autozone stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AutoZone
The number of cover stories for AutoZone depends on current market conditions and AutoZone's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AutoZone is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AutoZone's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AutoZone Short Properties
AutoZone's future price predictability will typically decrease when AutoZone's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AutoZone often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AutoZone's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AutoZone's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 271.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AutoZone to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in AutoZone Stock, please use our How to Invest in AutoZone guide.You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Will Automotive Retail sector continue expanding? Could AutoZone diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AutoZone. If investors know AutoZone will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AutoZone data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Earnings Share 143.34 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets |
The market value of AutoZone is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AutoZone that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AutoZone's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AutoZone's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because AutoZone's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AutoZone's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that AutoZone's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AutoZone represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, AutoZone's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.