Southern California Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BCAL Stock | USD 18.76 0.21 1.13% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.57. Southern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Southern California's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Southern California, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Southern California hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Southern California Bancorp from the perspective of Southern California response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.57. Southern California after-hype prediction price | USD 18.76 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern California to cross-verify your projections. Southern California Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Southern price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Southern using various technical indicators. When you analyze Southern charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southern California Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 19.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.57.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern California's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern California Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southern California | Southern California Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southern California Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern California's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern California's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.28 and 20.74, respectively. We have considered Southern California's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern California stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern California stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4462 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2061 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.5696 |
Predictive Modules for Southern California
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Southern California After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Southern California at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Southern California or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Southern California, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Southern California Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Southern California's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Southern California's historical news coverage. Southern California's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.53 and 19.99, respectively. We have considered Southern California's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Southern California is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Southern California is based on 3 months time horizon.
Southern California Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Southern California is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Southern California backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Southern California, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
18.76 | 18.76 | 0.00 |
|
Southern California Hype Timeline
Southern California is currently traded for 18.76. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Southern is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. %. The volatility of related hype on Southern California is about 5347.83%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.76. About 23.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.06. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Southern California last dividend was issued on the 24th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern California to cross-verify your projections.Southern California Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Southern California's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Southern California's future price movements. Getting to know how Southern California's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Southern California may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SMBC | Southern Missouri Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.86 | 0.15 | 3.00 | (1.72) | 5.54 | |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.99 | 0.09 | 2.88 | (1.70) | 6.72 | |
| SPFI | South Plains Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.05 | 2.82 | (1.70) | 5.88 | |
| FCBC | First Community Bancshares | (0.09) | 6 per month | 1.55 | 0.04 | 3.86 | (2.14) | 8.68 | |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial | (0.14) | 8 per month | 1.22 | 0.12 | 2.98 | (2.13) | 7.77 | |
| THFF | First Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.23 | 0.11 | 3.55 | (1.60) | 8.07 | |
| IBCP | Independent Bank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.05 | 2.57 | (2.57) | 7.82 | |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.20 | 0.08 | 3.21 | (1.99) | 8.29 | |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.04 | 2.73 | (1.91) | 7.39 | |
| MCBS | MetroCity Bankshares | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.17 | 0.03 | 2.87 | (2.10) | 7.34 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southern California
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern California's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern California's price trends.Southern California Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern California stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern California could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern California by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern California Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern California stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern California shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern California stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern California Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Southern California Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern California's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern California's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9192 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Variance | 1.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southern California
The number of cover stories for Southern California depends on current market conditions and Southern California's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Southern California is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Southern California's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Southern California Short Properties
Southern California's future price predictability will typically decrease when Southern California's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Southern California Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Southern California's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southern California's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 202.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Southern California to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southern California. If investors know Southern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southern California listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Southern California is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southern California's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southern California's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southern California's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southern California's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southern California's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southern California is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southern California's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.