Southern California Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BCAL Stock | USD 17.76 0.16 0.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.00. Southern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Southern California's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Southern California's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Southern California fundamentals over time.
Southern |
Southern California Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Southern California's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2003-03-31 | Previous Quarter 29.2 M | Current Value 115.2 M | Quarterly Volatility 36.5 M |
Southern California Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern California Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 17.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern California's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Southern California Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southern California | Southern California Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Southern California Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Southern California's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Southern California's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.40 and 18.81, respectively. We have considered Southern California's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern California stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern California stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.7977 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2459 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.9975 |
Predictive Modules for Southern California
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southern California. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Southern California
For every potential investor in Southern, whether a beginner or expert, Southern California's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Southern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Southern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Southern California's price trends.Southern California Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Southern California stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Southern California could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southern California by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern California Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Southern California's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Southern California's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Southern California Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Southern California stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Southern California shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Southern California stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Southern California Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1000.53 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.6154 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.78 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.06 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.16 |
Southern California Risk Indicators
The analysis of Southern California's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Southern California's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting southern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5011 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Variance | 3.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8551 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2511 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southern California. If investors know Southern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southern California listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share (0.29) | Revenue Per Share 3.796 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.37) | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of Southern California is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southern California's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southern California's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southern California's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southern California's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southern California's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southern California is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southern California's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.