Bank First Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BFC Stock | USD 137.32 0.00 0.00% |
Bank Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bank First stock prices and determine the direction of Bank First National's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bank First's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Bank First's stock price is about 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bank, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.08 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.28 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.275 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.755 | Wall Street Target Price 155 |
Using Bank First hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bank First National from the perspective of Bank First response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Bank Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank First National on the next trading day is expected to be 137.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.95.Bank First National Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bank First's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bank. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bank can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bank First National. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Bank First's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Bank First.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank First National on the next trading day is expected to be 137.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.95. Bank First after-hype prediction price | USD 137.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank First to cross-verify your projections. Bank First Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank First Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bank First National on the next trading day is expected to be 137.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.50, mean absolute percentage error of 4.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 89.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank First's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank First Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank First | Bank First Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank First Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank First's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank First's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 135.59 and 139.05, respectively. We have considered Bank First's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank First stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank First stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.7153 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2245 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4992 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0118 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 89.95 |
Predictive Modules for Bank First
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank First National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bank First After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bank First at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bank First or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bank First, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bank First Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bank First's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bank First's historical news coverage. Bank First's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 135.59 and 139.05, respectively. We have considered Bank First's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bank First is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bank First National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bank First Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bank First is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bank First backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bank First, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.73 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
137.32 | 137.32 | 0.00 |
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Bank First Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Bank First National is traded for 137.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Bank is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 106.79%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bank First is about 786.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 137.34. About 35.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Bank First was currently reported as 65.47. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.24. Bank First National last dividend was issued on the 25th of March 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 21st of October 2002. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank First to cross-verify your projections.Bank First Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bank First's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bank First's future price movements. Getting to know how Bank First's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bank First may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DCOM | Dime Community Bancshares | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.86 | 0.07 | 3.51 | (3.10) | 10.13 | |
| BY | Byline Bancorp | 0.11 | 8 per month | 1.04 | 0.1 | 2.82 | (1.88) | 9.25 | |
| CNOB | ConnectOne Bancorp | 0.60 | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.1 | 3.61 | (1.83) | 6.62 | |
| WAFD | Washington Federal | (0.04) | 10 per month | 1.48 | 0.05 | 3.19 | (2.74) | 7.68 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | 0.04 | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.13 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 5.90 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | (0.33) | 18 per month | 1.31 | 0.05 | 2.85 | (2.98) | 6.32 | |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings | (0.44) | 7 per month | 1.06 | 0.16 | 3.55 | (1.74) | 7.77 | |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp | 0.36 | 9 per month | 1.41 | (0.01) | 3.24 | (2.43) | 7.26 | |
| HOPE | Hope Bancorp | 1.32 | 22 per month | 1.13 | 0.06 | 3.37 | (1.97) | 7.99 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | 0.85 | 6 per month | 1.36 | 0.10 | 2.62 | (2.81) | 6.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bank First
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank First's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank First's price trends.Bank First Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank First stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank First could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank First by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank First Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank First stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank First shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank First stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank First National entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0476 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 138.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 138.26 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 6.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.42) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.42 |
Bank First Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank First's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank First's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Variance | 3.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.85 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.66) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bank First
The number of cover stories for Bank First depends on current market conditions and Bank First's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bank First is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bank First's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bank First to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bank First. If investors know Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bank First listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.08 | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share 7.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.094 |
The market value of Bank First National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bank First's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bank First's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bank First's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bank First's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bank First's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bank First is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bank First's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.