Brighthouse Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BHFAL Stock | USD 17.97 0.07 0.39% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brighthouse Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 17.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66. Brighthouse Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Brighthouse Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Brighthouse Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Brighthouse Financial fundamentals over time.
As of now the value of relative strength index of Brighthouse Financial's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Brighthouse Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Brighthouse Financial from the perspective of Brighthouse Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brighthouse Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 17.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66. Brighthouse Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 17.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Brighthouse Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Brighthouse price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Brighthouse using various technical indicators. When you analyze Brighthouse charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Brighthouse Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brighthouse Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 17.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brighthouse Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brighthouse Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Brighthouse Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Brighthouse Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Brighthouse Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brighthouse Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.98 and 18.96, respectively. We have considered Brighthouse Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brighthouse Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brighthouse Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.75 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0023 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.111 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.66 |
Predictive Modules for Brighthouse Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brighthouse Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Brighthouse Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Brighthouse Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Brighthouse Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Brighthouse Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Brighthouse Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Brighthouse Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Brighthouse Financial's historical news coverage. Brighthouse Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.96 and 18.94, respectively. We have considered Brighthouse Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Brighthouse Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Brighthouse Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Brighthouse Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Brighthouse Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Brighthouse Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Brighthouse Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.99 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.97 | 17.95 | 0.11 |
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Brighthouse Financial Hype Timeline
Brighthouse Financial is currently traded for 17.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Brighthouse is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 170.69%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.11%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Brighthouse Financial is about 2250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.97. The company last dividend was issued on the 15th of December 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brighthouse Financial to cross-verify your projections.Brighthouse Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Brighthouse Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Brighthouse Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Brighthouse Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Brighthouse Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BBUC | Brookfield Business Corp | 0.37 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.65 | (3.05) | 12.49 | |
| HG | Hamilton Insurance Group | (0.54) | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.07 | 2.56 | (2.26) | 12.81 | |
| SF | Stifel Financial | (0.81) | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.1 | 2.43 | (2.17) | 7.58 | |
| JXN | Jackson Financial | (0.28) | 4 per month | 1.63 | 0.10 | 2.64 | (2.37) | 9.11 | |
| GSHD | Goosehead Insurance | 0.33 | 7 per month | 2.34 | 0.01 | 4.37 | (3.99) | 14.87 | |
| HCI | HCI Group | 0.05 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 2.88 | (4.07) | 9.93 | |
| PFS | Provident Financial Services | (0.18) | 11 per month | 1.16 | 0.06 | 2.57 | (1.78) | 6.72 | |
| FFBC | First Financial Bancorp | (0.93) | 10 per month | 0.92 | 0.07 | 3.20 | (1.48) | 5.35 | |
| BUR | Burford Capital | (0.61) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 4.11 | (3.77) | 15.16 | |
| BOH | Bank of Hawaii | 2.16 | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.10 | 2.56 | (1.71) | 6.96 |
Other Forecasting Options for Brighthouse Financial
For every potential investor in Brighthouse, whether a beginner or expert, Brighthouse Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brighthouse Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brighthouse. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brighthouse Financial's price trends.Brighthouse Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Brighthouse Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Brighthouse Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Brighthouse Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Brighthouse Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brighthouse Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brighthouse Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brighthouse Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Brighthouse Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Brighthouse Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Brighthouse Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brighthouse Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brighthouse stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7121 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Variance | 1.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.06 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Brighthouse Financial
The number of cover stories for Brighthouse Financial depends on current market conditions and Brighthouse Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Brighthouse Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Brighthouse Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Brighthouse Financial Short Properties
Brighthouse Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Brighthouse Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Brighthouse Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Brighthouse Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Brighthouse Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 87 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Brighthouse Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Brighthouse Stock please use our How to buy in Brighthouse Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Is Oil & Gas Exploration & Production space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Brighthouse Financial. If investors know Brighthouse will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Brighthouse Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Brighthouse Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Brighthouse that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Brighthouse Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Brighthouse Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Brighthouse Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Brighthouse Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Brighthouse Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Brighthouse Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Brighthouse Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.