Builders FirstSource Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BLDR Stock | USD 113.27 1.13 0.99% |
Builders Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Builders FirstSource's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Builders FirstSource's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Builders FirstSource fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Builders FirstSource's share price is approaching 48 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Builders FirstSource, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.2014 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.0431 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.2416 | Wall Street Target Price 130.2381 |
Using Builders FirstSource hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Builders FirstSource from the perspective of Builders FirstSource response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Builders FirstSource using Builders FirstSource's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Builders using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Builders FirstSource's stock price.
Builders FirstSource Short Interest
An investor who is long Builders FirstSource may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Builders FirstSource and may potentially protect profits, hedge Builders FirstSource with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 119.9757 | Short Percent 0.0581 | Short Ratio 2.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.1 M | 50 Day MA 110.933 |
Builders Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 113.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.15.Builders FirstSource Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Builders FirstSource's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Builders. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Builders can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Builders FirstSource. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Builders FirstSource's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Builders FirstSource.
Builders FirstSource Implied Volatility | 0.64 |
Builders FirstSource's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Builders FirstSource stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Builders FirstSource's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Builders FirstSource stock will not fluctuate a lot when Builders FirstSource's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 113.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.15. Builders FirstSource after-hype prediction price | USD 113.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Builders FirstSource to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Builders contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Builders FirstSource will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.04% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Builders FirstSource trading at USD 113.27, that is roughly USD 0.0453 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Builders FirstSource's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Builders FirstSource options at the current volatility level of 0.64%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Builders Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Builders FirstSource's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Builders FirstSource's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Builders FirstSource stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Builders FirstSource's open interest, investors have to compare it to Builders FirstSource's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Builders FirstSource is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Builders. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Builders FirstSource Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Builders price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Builders using various technical indicators. When you analyze Builders charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Builders FirstSource Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 113.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.24, mean absolute percentage error of 10.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 134.15.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Builders Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Builders FirstSource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Builders FirstSource Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Builders FirstSource | Builders FirstSource Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Builders FirstSource Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Builders FirstSource's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Builders FirstSource's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 110.30 and 116.24, respectively. We have considered Builders FirstSource's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Builders FirstSource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Builders FirstSource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.604 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0285 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2358 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0201 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 134.15 |
Predictive Modules for Builders FirstSource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Builders FirstSource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Builders FirstSource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Builders FirstSource After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Builders FirstSource at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Builders FirstSource or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Builders FirstSource, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Builders FirstSource Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Builders FirstSource's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Builders FirstSource's historical news coverage. Builders FirstSource's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 110.32 and 116.26, respectively. We have considered Builders FirstSource's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Builders FirstSource is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Builders FirstSource is based on 3 months time horizon.
Builders FirstSource Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Builders FirstSource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Builders FirstSource backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Builders FirstSource, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.97 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
113.27 | 113.29 | 0.02 |
|
Builders FirstSource Hype Timeline
Builders FirstSource is currently traded for 113.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Builders is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 113.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Builders FirstSource is about 12375.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 113.27. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 16.4 B. Net Income was 1.08 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.85 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Builders FirstSource to cross-verify your projections.Builders FirstSource Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Builders FirstSource's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Builders FirstSource's future price movements. Getting to know how Builders FirstSource's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Builders FirstSource may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAS | Masco | (0.64) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.51 | (2.29) | 7.82 | |
| BLD | Topbuild Corp | 16.07 | 12 per month | 1.85 | 0.02 | 4.50 | (3.27) | 10.98 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | (2.09) | 9 per month | 1.74 | (0.01) | 4.11 | (2.75) | 8.62 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | 2.41 | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.06 | 3.31 | (2.33) | 11.59 | |
| OC | Owens Corning | 1.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.03 | (2.95) | 11.49 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | (5.59) | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.23 | 4.34 | (2.56) | 10.50 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 4.02 | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.18 | 3.54 | (3.42) | 16.49 | |
| STN | Stantec | 0.84 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.96 | (2.27) | 8.69 | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings | (3.35) | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.08 | 2.53 | (2.84) | 7.77 | |
| STRL | Sterling Construction | (12.93) | 8 per month | 4.56 | (0.01) | 6.18 | (6.91) | 21.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Builders FirstSource
For every potential investor in Builders, whether a beginner or expert, Builders FirstSource's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Builders Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Builders. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Builders FirstSource's price trends.Builders FirstSource Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Builders FirstSource stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Builders FirstSource could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Builders FirstSource by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Builders FirstSource Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Builders FirstSource stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Builders FirstSource shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Builders FirstSource stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Builders FirstSource entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0289 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.34) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 112.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 112.99 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 3.31 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.14) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.13) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.82 |
Builders FirstSource Risk Indicators
The analysis of Builders FirstSource's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Builders FirstSource's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting builders stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.02 | |||
| Variance | 9.11 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Builders FirstSource
The number of cover stories for Builders FirstSource depends on current market conditions and Builders FirstSource's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Builders FirstSource is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Builders FirstSource's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Builders FirstSource Short Properties
Builders FirstSource's future price predictability will typically decrease when Builders FirstSource's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Builders FirstSource often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Builders FirstSource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Builders FirstSource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 119 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 153.6 M |
Additional Tools for Builders Stock Analysis
When running Builders FirstSource's price analysis, check to measure Builders FirstSource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Builders FirstSource is operating at the current time. Most of Builders FirstSource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Builders FirstSource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Builders FirstSource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Builders FirstSource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.