Builders FirstSource Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| BLDR Stock | USD 102.63 7.05 6.43% |
Builders Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Builders FirstSource's stock price is slightly above 62 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Builders, making its price go up or down. Momentum 62
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Builders FirstSource hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Builders FirstSource from the perspective of Builders FirstSource response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 106.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 171.51. Builders FirstSource after-hype prediction price | USD 103.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Builders FirstSource to cross-verify your projections. Builders FirstSource Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Builders price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Builders using various technical indicators. When you analyze Builders charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Builders FirstSource Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Builders FirstSource on the next trading day is expected to be 106.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91, mean absolute percentage error of 15.49, and the sum of the absolute errors of 171.51.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Builders Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Builders FirstSource's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Builders FirstSource Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Builders FirstSource | Builders FirstSource Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Builders FirstSource Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Builders FirstSource's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Builders FirstSource's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 103.14 and 109.17, respectively. We have considered Builders FirstSource's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Builders FirstSource stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Builders FirstSource stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1747 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1803 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.907 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0253 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 171.515 |
Predictive Modules for Builders FirstSource
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Builders FirstSource. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Builders FirstSource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Builders FirstSource After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Builders FirstSource at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Builders FirstSource or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Builders FirstSource, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Builders FirstSource Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Builders FirstSource's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Builders FirstSource's historical news coverage. Builders FirstSource's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.37 and 106.25, respectively. We have considered Builders FirstSource's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Builders FirstSource is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Builders FirstSource is based on 3 months time horizon.
Builders FirstSource Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Builders FirstSource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Builders FirstSource backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Builders FirstSource, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 3.01 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
102.63 | 103.31 | 0.00 |
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Builders FirstSource Hype Timeline
Builders FirstSource is currently traded for 102.63. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.3. Builders is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Builders FirstSource is about 89.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 102.93. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Builders FirstSource was currently reported as 39.36. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.81. Builders FirstSource had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1086:995 split on the 17th of December 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Builders FirstSource to cross-verify your projections.Builders FirstSource Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Builders FirstSource's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Builders FirstSource's future price movements. Getting to know how Builders FirstSource's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Builders FirstSource may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAS | Masco | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.32 | 0.04 | 3.81 | (2.15) | 11.34 | |
| BLD | Topbuild Corp | 14.16 | 9 per month | 1.49 | 0.11 | 4.78 | (2.51) | 10.98 | |
| CSL | Carlisle Companies Incorporated | 1.94 | 8 per month | 1.00 | 0.17 | 4.24 | (2.44) | 13.15 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | 4.41 | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.11 | 3.31 | (1.85) | 9.24 | |
| OC | Owens Corning | (0.35) | 11 per month | 1.14 | 0.15 | 4.56 | (2.33) | 9.87 | |
| HII | Huntington Ingalls Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.39 | 0.17 | 4.34 | (3.03) | 16.77 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 14.00 | 10 per month | 2.07 | 0.08 | 4.21 | (3.53) | 11.11 | |
| STN | Stantec | (0.43) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.96 | (2.37) | 14.41 | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.12 | 3.71 | (2.18) | 7.77 | |
| STRL | Sterling Construction | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.63 | 0.13 | 5.34 | (6.88) | 13.87 |
Other Forecasting Options for Builders FirstSource
For every potential investor in Builders, whether a beginner or expert, Builders FirstSource's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Builders Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Builders. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Builders FirstSource's price trends.Builders FirstSource Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Builders FirstSource stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Builders FirstSource could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Builders FirstSource by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Builders FirstSource Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Builders FirstSource stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Builders FirstSource shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Builders FirstSource stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Builders FirstSource entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 140032.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.93) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 106.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 105.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (7.25) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (7.05) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 62.94 |
Builders FirstSource Risk Indicators
The analysis of Builders FirstSource's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Builders FirstSource's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting builders stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Variance | 9.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Builders FirstSource
The number of cover stories for Builders FirstSource depends on current market conditions and Builders FirstSource's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Builders FirstSource is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Builders FirstSource's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Builders FirstSource Short Properties
Builders FirstSource's future price predictability will typically decrease when Builders FirstSource's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Builders FirstSource often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Builders FirstSource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Builders FirstSource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 111.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 181.8 M |
Additional Tools for Builders Stock Analysis
When running Builders FirstSource's price analysis, check to measure Builders FirstSource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Builders FirstSource is operating at the current time. Most of Builders FirstSource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Builders FirstSource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Builders FirstSource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Builders FirstSource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.