Sierra Bancorp Stock Forward View
| BSRR Stock | USD 37.13 1.72 4.86% |
Sierra Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Sierra Bancorp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Sierra Bancorp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Sierra Bancorp fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Sierra Bancorp's stock price is slightly above 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Sierra, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.03) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.79 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.0275 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.475 | Wall Street Target Price 35.1667 |
Using Sierra Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Sierra Bancorp from the perspective of Sierra Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Sierra Bancorp using Sierra Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Sierra using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Sierra Bancorp's stock price.
Sierra Bancorp Implied Volatility | 0.92 |
Sierra Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Sierra Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Sierra Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Sierra Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Sierra Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sierra Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 36.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59 and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.06. Sierra Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 37.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sierra Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Sierra Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Sierra Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Sierra Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Sierra Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Sierra Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Sierra Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Sierra Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Sierra. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Sierra Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Sierra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sierra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sierra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sierra Bancorp Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Sierra Bancorp's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1999-03-31 | Previous Quarter 130 M | Current Value 95.5 M | Quarterly Volatility 66.7 M |
Sierra Bancorp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sierra Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 36.04 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.59, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 36.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sierra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sierra Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sierra Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sierra Bancorp | Sierra Bancorp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Sierra Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sierra Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sierra Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.12 and 37.96, respectively. We have considered Sierra Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sierra Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sierra Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5246 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5912 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.0641 |
Predictive Modules for Sierra Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sierra Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sierra Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Sierra Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sierra Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Sierra Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Sierra Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Sierra Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sierra Bancorp's historical news coverage. Sierra Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.48 and 39.18, respectively. We have considered Sierra Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Sierra Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sierra Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Sierra Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Sierra Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sierra Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sierra Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.42 | 1.92 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
37.13 | 37.33 | 0.03 |
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Sierra Bancorp Hype Timeline
Sierra Bancorp is currently traded for 37.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Sierra is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 37.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.42%. The volatility of related hype on Sierra Bancorp is about 1156.63%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.06. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 191.14 M. Net Income was 40.56 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 144.49 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sierra Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.Sierra Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Sierra Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sierra Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how Sierra Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sierra Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FRBA | First Bank | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.32 | 0.04 | 3.29 | (1.92) | 8.53 | |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp | 0.47 | 5 per month | 1.41 | 0.03 | 2.39 | (2.38) | 5.28 | |
| GCBC | Greene County Bancorp | (1.06) | 8 per month | 1.72 | 0.01 | 4.59 | (2.70) | 10.25 | |
| CARE | Carter Bank and | (0.43) | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.15 | 3.19 | (2.29) | 7.35 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | (0.32) | 5 per month | 0.97 | 0.11 | 2.75 | (2.00) | 7.93 | |
| WTBA | West Bancorporation | 0.25 | 8 per month | 1.27 | 0.07 | 2.76 | (2.19) | 8.75 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | (0.30) | 6 per month | 1.27 | 0.07 | 3.62 | (1.95) | 9.63 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.12 | 0.14 | 4.55 | (1.94) | 9.82 | |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | (0.04) | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.11 | 3.61 | (2.44) | 8.50 | |
| FBIZ | First Business Financial | (0.08) | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.11 | 3.35 | (1.91) | 8.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sierra Bancorp
For every potential investor in Sierra, whether a beginner or expert, Sierra Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sierra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sierra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sierra Bancorp's price trends.Sierra Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sierra Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sierra Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sierra Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sierra Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sierra Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sierra Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sierra Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sierra Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Sierra Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sierra Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sierra Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sierra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9101 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Variance | 3.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8282 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sierra Bancorp
The number of cover stories for Sierra Bancorp depends on current market conditions and Sierra Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sierra Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sierra Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Sierra Bancorp Short Properties
Sierra Bancorp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Sierra Bancorp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Sierra Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Sierra Bancorp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sierra Bancorp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 756.6 M |
Additional Tools for Sierra Stock Analysis
When running Sierra Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Sierra Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sierra Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Sierra Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sierra Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sierra Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sierra Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.