Caterpillar Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

CAT Stock  USD 572.87  4.52  0.78%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Caterpillar on the next trading day is expected to be 602.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 985.70. Caterpillar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Caterpillar's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Caterpillar, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 53

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Caterpillar's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Caterpillar, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Caterpillar's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.04)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.3413
EPS Estimate Current Year
18.6536
EPS Estimate Next Year
22.3449
Wall Street Target Price
591.9904
Using Caterpillar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caterpillar from the perspective of Caterpillar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Caterpillar using Caterpillar's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Caterpillar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Caterpillar's stock price.

Caterpillar Short Interest

An investor who is long Caterpillar may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Caterpillar and may potentially protect profits, hedge Caterpillar with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
433.4968
Short Percent
0.0152
Short Ratio
2.75
Shares Short Prior Month
6.4 M
50 Day MA
568.3712

Caterpillar Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Caterpillar's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Caterpillar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caterpillar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caterpillar. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Caterpillar's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Caterpillar.

Caterpillar Implied Volatility

    
  0.59  
Caterpillar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caterpillar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caterpillar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caterpillar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caterpillar's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Caterpillar on the next trading day is expected to be 602.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 985.70.

Caterpillar after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 573.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caterpillar to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Caterpillar Stock please use our How to Invest in Caterpillar guide.At this time, Caterpillar's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.85 in 2026, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 4.65 in 2026. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 546.5 M in 2026. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to gain to about 13 B in 2026.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Caterpillar Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Caterpillar's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Caterpillar's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Caterpillar stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Caterpillar's open interest, investors have to compare it to Caterpillar's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Caterpillar is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Caterpillar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Caterpillar Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Caterpillar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caterpillar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caterpillar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Caterpillar price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Caterpillar Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Caterpillar on the next trading day is expected to be 602.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.16, mean absolute percentage error of 378.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 985.70.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caterpillar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caterpillar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Caterpillar Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CaterpillarCaterpillar Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Caterpillar Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Caterpillar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caterpillar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 600.37 and 605.01, respectively. We have considered Caterpillar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
572.87
600.37
Downside
602.69
Expected Value
605.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caterpillar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caterpillar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria124.0459
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation16.159
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0288
SAESum of the absolute errors985.6977
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Caterpillar historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Caterpillar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caterpillar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
570.83573.15575.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
515.58626.07628.39
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
556.33586.07615.82
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
538.71591.99657.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Caterpillar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Caterpillar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Caterpillar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Caterpillar.

Other Forecasting Options for Caterpillar

For every potential investor in Caterpillar, whether a beginner or expert, Caterpillar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caterpillar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caterpillar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caterpillar's price trends.

Caterpillar Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caterpillar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caterpillar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caterpillar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Caterpillar Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Caterpillar's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Caterpillar's current price.

Caterpillar Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caterpillar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caterpillar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caterpillar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caterpillar entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Caterpillar Risk Indicators

The analysis of Caterpillar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caterpillar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caterpillar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Caterpillar Stock Analysis

When running Caterpillar's price analysis, check to measure Caterpillar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caterpillar is operating at the current time. Most of Caterpillar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caterpillar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caterpillar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caterpillar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.