Civista Bancshares Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| CIVB Stock | USD 24.87 0.09 0.36% |
Civista Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Civista Bancshares stock prices and determine the direction of Civista Bancshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Civista Bancshares' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Civista Bancshares' share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5933 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.608 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.856 | Wall Street Target Price 27 |
Using Civista Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Civista Bancshares from the perspective of Civista Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Civista Bancshares using Civista Bancshares' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Civista using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Civista Bancshares' stock price.
Civista Bancshares Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Civista Bancshares' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Civista. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Civista Bancshares stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 21.9441 | Short Percent 0.0137 | Short Ratio 2.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 272.3 K | 50 Day MA 23.1798 |
Civista Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Civista Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 23.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.94.Civista Bancshares Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Civista Bancshares' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Civista. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Civista can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Civista Bancshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Civista Bancshares' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Civista Bancshares.
Civista Bancshares Implied Volatility | 1.01 |
Civista Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Civista Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Civista Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Civista Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Civista Bancshares' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Civista Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 23.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.94. Civista Bancshares after-hype prediction price | USD 24.91 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Civista Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Civista contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Civista Bancshares will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0631% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Civista Bancshares trading at USD 24.87, that is roughly USD 0.0157 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Civista Bancshares' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Civista Bancshares options at the current volatility level of 1.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Civista Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Civista Bancshares' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Civista Bancshares' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Civista Bancshares stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Civista Bancshares' open interest, investors have to compare it to Civista Bancshares' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Civista Bancshares is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Civista. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Civista Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Civista price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Civista using various technical indicators. When you analyze Civista charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Civista Bancshares Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Civista Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 23.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.69, mean absolute percentage error of 0.66, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Civista Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Civista Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Civista Bancshares Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Civista Bancshares | Civista Bancshares Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Civista Bancshares Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Civista Bancshares' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Civista Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.21 and 25.59, respectively. We have considered Civista Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Civista Bancshares stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Civista Bancshares stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.5303 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6925 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.03 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.9378 |
Predictive Modules for Civista Bancshares
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Civista Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Civista Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Civista Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Civista Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Civista Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Civista Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Civista Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Civista Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Civista Bancshares' historical news coverage. Civista Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 23.22 and 26.60, respectively. We have considered Civista Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Civista Bancshares is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Civista Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.
Civista Bancshares Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Civista Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Civista Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Civista Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.69 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.87 | 24.91 | 0.16 |
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Civista Bancshares Hype Timeline
Civista Bancshares is currently traded for 24.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Civista is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 24.91 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Civista Bancshares is about 710.08%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.92. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 254.95 M. Net Income was 46.21 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 169.17 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Civista Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.Civista Bancshares Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Civista Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Civista Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Civista Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Civista Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FBIZ | First Business Financial | (0.54) | 9 per month | 0.97 | 0.14 | 3.35 | (1.91) | 8.36 | |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp | (0.13) | 7 per month | 1.20 | 0.14 | 3.62 | (1.95) | 9.63 | |
| NFBK | Northfield Bancorp | (0.06) | 8 per month | 1.01 | 0.19 | 3.73 | (2.43) | 13.02 | |
| CWBC | Community West Bancshares | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.17 | 3.41 | (1.51) | 7.93 | |
| RRBI | Red River Bancshares | (0.33) | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.25 | 4.16 | (2.11) | 7.97 | |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp | 0.69 | 8 per month | 1.25 | 0.08 | 2.39 | (2.38) | 5.28 | |
| KRNY | Kearny Financial Corp | 0.14 | 6 per month | 0.93 | 0.20 | 4.45 | (1.96) | 9.83 | |
| FRBA | First Bank | 0.19 | 8 per month | 1.31 | 0.07 | 3.29 | (1.92) | 8.53 | |
| UNTY | Unity Bancorp | 1.86 | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.17 | 3.33 | (2.87) | 7.55 | |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp | 0.50 | 6 per month | 1.00 | 0.13 | 2.91 | (1.59) | 8.39 |
Other Forecasting Options for Civista Bancshares
For every potential investor in Civista, whether a beginner or expert, Civista Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Civista Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Civista. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Civista Bancshares' price trends.Civista Bancshares Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Civista Bancshares stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Civista Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Civista Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Civista Bancshares Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Civista Bancshares stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Civista Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Civista Bancshares stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Civista Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2287.1 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.1184 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 24.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 24.8 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.15 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.09 |
Civista Bancshares Risk Indicators
The analysis of Civista Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Civista Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting civista stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Civista Bancshares
The number of cover stories for Civista Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Civista Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Civista Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Civista Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Civista Bancshares Short Properties
Civista Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Civista Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Civista Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Civista Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Civista Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 17.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 761.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Civista Bancshares to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Civista Stock refer to our How to Trade Civista Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Civista Bancshares. Projected growth potential of Civista fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Civista Bancshares assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Dividend Share 0.68 | Earnings Share 2.66 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.153 |
Understanding Civista Bancshares requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Civista's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Civista Bancshares' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Civista Bancshares' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Civista Bancshares' intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Civista Bancshares should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Civista Bancshares' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.