CompoSecure Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

CMPODelisted Stock  USD 25.15  0.53  2.06%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of CompoSecure on the next trading day is expected to be 25.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.31. CompoSecure Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of CompoSecure's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of CompoSecure's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with CompoSecure, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using CompoSecure hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CompoSecure from the perspective of CompoSecure response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of CompoSecure on the next trading day is expected to be 25.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.31.

CompoSecure after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 25.15  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompoSecure to cross-verify your projections.

CompoSecure Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine CompoSecure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CompoSecure using various technical indicators. When you analyze CompoSecure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A two period moving average forecast for CompoSecure is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

CompoSecure Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of CompoSecure on the next trading day is expected to be 25.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CompoSecure Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CompoSecure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CompoSecure Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CompoSecureCompoSecure Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CompoSecure Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CompoSecure's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CompoSecure's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.99 and 28.31, respectively. We have considered CompoSecure's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.15
25.15
Expected Value
28.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CompoSecure stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CompoSecure stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.9101
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1182
MADMean absolute deviation0.5308
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0251
SAESum of the absolute errors31.315
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of CompoSecure price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of CompoSecure. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for CompoSecure

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CompoSecure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.9925.1528.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.9220.0827.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.6020.9625.31
Details

CompoSecure After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of CompoSecure at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CompoSecure or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CompoSecure, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

CompoSecure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting CompoSecure's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CompoSecure's historical news coverage. CompoSecure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 21.99 and 28.31, respectively. We have considered CompoSecure's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.15
25.15
After-hype Price
28.31
Upside
CompoSecure is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CompoSecure is based on 3 months time horizon.

CompoSecure Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CompoSecure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CompoSecure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CompoSecure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.41 
3.16
  0.04 
 0.00  
10 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.15
25.15
0.00 
3,160  
Notes

CompoSecure Hype Timeline

CompoSecure is currently traded for 25.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. CompoSecure is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on CompoSecure is about 31600.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.15. About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 2.34. CompoSecure last dividend was issued on the 17th of May 2024. The entity had 1204:1000 split on the 28th of February 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompoSecure to cross-verify your projections.

CompoSecure Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to CompoSecure's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CompoSecure's future price movements. Getting to know how CompoSecure's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CompoSecure may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FAFirst Advantage Corp 0.01 9 per month 2.69 (0.02) 4.13 (4.52) 13.15 
PCTPurecycle Technologies Holdings(0.10)9 per month 0.00 (0.04) 9.68 (7.32) 24.11 
UPWKUpwork Inc 0.30 9 per month 2.69  0.11  7.31 (5.07) 20.70 
SBLKStar Bulk Carriers 0.37 16 per month 1.76  0.13  3.15 (2.54) 9.64 
AMRCAmeresco(0.83)8 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.15 (6.06) 16.41 
BWLPBW LPG Limited 0.07 9 per month 1.71  0.11  3.89 (2.78) 8.94 
LUNRIntuitive Machines 0.82 7 per month 5.19  0.11  11.71 (8.49) 46.43 
HUBGHub Group(0.26)9 per month 1.17  0.18  4.24 (2.26) 7.44 
ALGAlamo Group 1.48 3 per month 1.40  0  2.47 (2.08) 8.89 
PSIXPower Solutions International(1.76)9 per month 4.96 (0.01) 7.68 (6.33) 27.55 

Other Forecasting Options for CompoSecure

For every potential investor in CompoSecure, whether a beginner or expert, CompoSecure's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CompoSecure Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CompoSecure. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CompoSecure's price trends.

CompoSecure Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CompoSecure stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CompoSecure could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CompoSecure by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CompoSecure Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CompoSecure stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CompoSecure shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CompoSecure stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CompoSecure entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CompoSecure Risk Indicators

The analysis of CompoSecure's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CompoSecure's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting composecure stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for CompoSecure

The number of cover stories for CompoSecure depends on current market conditions and CompoSecure's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CompoSecure is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CompoSecure's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

CompoSecure Short Properties

CompoSecure's future price predictability will typically decrease when CompoSecure's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CompoSecure often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CompoSecure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CompoSecure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding44 M
Cash And Short Term Investments77.5 M
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompoSecure to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Other Consideration for investing in CompoSecure Stock

If you are still planning to invest in CompoSecure check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the CompoSecure's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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