CompoSecure Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CMPODelisted Stock | USD 25.15 0.45 1.82% |
CompoSecure Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of CompoSecure's stock price is about 64 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling CompoSecure, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using CompoSecure hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CompoSecure from the perspective of CompoSecure response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CompoSecure on the next trading day is expected to be 25.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.27. CompoSecure after-hype prediction price | USD 25.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
CompoSecure |
CompoSecure Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CompoSecure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CompoSecure using various technical indicators. When you analyze CompoSecure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CompoSecure Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CompoSecure on the next trading day is expected to be 25.43 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 30.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CompoSecure Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CompoSecure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CompoSecure Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CompoSecure | CompoSecure Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
CompoSecure Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CompoSecure's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CompoSecure's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 22.26 and 28.60, respectively. We have considered CompoSecure's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CompoSecure stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CompoSecure stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0328 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.513 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 30.2655 |
Predictive Modules for CompoSecure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CompoSecure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CompoSecure After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CompoSecure at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CompoSecure or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CompoSecure, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CompoSecure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CompoSecure's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CompoSecure's historical news coverage. CompoSecure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.03 and 28.37, respectively. We have considered CompoSecure's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CompoSecure is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CompoSecure is based on 3 months time horizon.
CompoSecure Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CompoSecure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CompoSecure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CompoSecure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.48 | 3.17 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
25.15 | 25.20 | 0.20 |
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CompoSecure Hype Timeline
CompoSecure is currently traded for 25.15. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. CompoSecure is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 25.2 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.2%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on CompoSecure is about 4953.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.12. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 420.57 M. Net Loss for the year was (83.16 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 81.28 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompoSecure to cross-verify your projections.CompoSecure Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CompoSecure's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CompoSecure's future price movements. Getting to know how CompoSecure's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CompoSecure may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FA | First Advantage Corp | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 4.13 | (4.75) | 13.15 | |
| PCT | Purecycle Technologies Holdings | (0.10) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.68 | (7.32) | 24.11 | |
| UPWK | Upwork Inc | 0.38 | 12 per month | 2.65 | 0.11 | 7.31 | (5.07) | 20.70 | |
| SBLK | Star Bulk Carriers | 0.48 | 8 per month | 1.78 | 0.15 | 3.15 | (2.54) | 9.64 | |
| AMRC | Ameresco | (0.54) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.15 | (5.97) | 16.41 | |
| BWLP | BW LPG Limited | (0.24) | 10 per month | 1.67 | 0.12 | 4.02 | (2.78) | 8.94 | |
| LUNR | Intuitive Machines | 1.26 | 11 per month | 5.11 | 0.14 | 11.71 | (8.43) | 46.43 | |
| HUBG | Hub Group | (0.02) | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.18 | 4.24 | (2.26) | 7.44 | |
| ALG | Alamo Group | 2.44 | 11 per month | 1.40 | (0.01) | 2.47 | (2.08) | 8.89 | |
| PSIX | Power Solutions International | (4.29) | 11 per month | 4.85 | (0) | 7.68 | (6.33) | 27.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for CompoSecure
For every potential investor in CompoSecure, whether a beginner or expert, CompoSecure's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CompoSecure Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CompoSecure. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CompoSecure's price trends.CompoSecure Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CompoSecure stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CompoSecure could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CompoSecure by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CompoSecure Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CompoSecure stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CompoSecure shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CompoSecure stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CompoSecure entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
CompoSecure Risk Indicators
The analysis of CompoSecure's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CompoSecure's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting composecure stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.1 | |||
| Variance | 9.62 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CompoSecure
The number of cover stories for CompoSecure depends on current market conditions and CompoSecure's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CompoSecure is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CompoSecure's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CompoSecure Short Properties
CompoSecure's future price predictability will typically decrease when CompoSecure's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CompoSecure often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CompoSecure's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CompoSecure's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 44 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompoSecure to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Other Consideration for investing in CompoSecure Stock
If you are still planning to invest in CompoSecure check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the CompoSecure's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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