CNH Industrial Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| CNH Stock | 11.18 0.00 0.00% |
CNH Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of CNH Industrial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The RSI of CNH Industrial's stock price is under 60 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 3rd of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling CNH, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.1713 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.463 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.5392 | Wall Street Target Price 12.8079 |
Using CNH Industrial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of CNH Industrial NV from the perspective of CNH Industrial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards CNH Industrial using CNH Industrial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards CNH using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of CNH Industrial's stock price.
CNH Industrial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in CNH Industrial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards CNH. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of CNH Industrial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.4148 | Short Percent 0.0803 | Short Ratio 5.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 42.2 M | 50 Day MA 9.9106 |
CNH Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 11.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.90.CNH Industrial NV Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to CNH Industrial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in CNH. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding CNH can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around CNH Industrial NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of CNH Industrial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about CNH Industrial.
CNH Industrial Implied Volatility | 1.22 |
CNH Industrial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of CNH Industrial NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if CNH Industrial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that CNH Industrial stock will not fluctuate a lot when CNH Industrial's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 11.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.90. CNH Industrial after-hype prediction price | USD 11.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current CNH contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that CNH Industrial NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0763% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With CNH Industrial trading at USD 11.18, that is roughly USD 0.008525 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating CNH Industrial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring CNH Industrial NV options at the current volatility level of 1.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 CNH Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast CNH Industrial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in CNH Industrial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for CNH Industrial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current CNH Industrial's open interest, investors have to compare it to CNH Industrial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of CNH Industrial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in CNH. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
CNH Industrial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CNH price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CNH using various technical indicators. When you analyze CNH charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CNH Industrial Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CNH Industrial NV on the next trading day is expected to be 11.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CNH Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CNH Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
CNH Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CNH Industrial | CNH Industrial Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
CNH Industrial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting CNH Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CNH Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.21 and 13.53, respectively. We have considered CNH Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CNH Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CNH Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.44 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2114 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.8974 |
Predictive Modules for CNH Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CNH Industrial NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CNH Industrial After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of CNH Industrial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in CNH Industrial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of CNH Industrial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
CNH Industrial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting CNH Industrial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on CNH Industrial's historical news coverage. CNH Industrial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.03 and 13.35, respectively. We have considered CNH Industrial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
CNH Industrial is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of CNH Industrial NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
CNH Industrial Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CNH Industrial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CNH Industrial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CNH Industrial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.16 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.18 | 11.19 | 0.09 |
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CNH Industrial Hype Timeline
On the 3rd of February CNH Industrial NV is traded for 11.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. CNH is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.19 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on CNH Industrial is about 310.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.27. The company reported the last year's revenue of 19.84 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.26 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.39 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections.CNH Industrial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to CNH Industrial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict CNH Industrial's future price movements. Getting to know how CNH Industrial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how CNH Industrial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MAS | Masco | (0.64) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.51 | (2.29) | 7.82 | |
| NDSN | Nordson | 5.14 | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0.16 | 2.33 | (1.31) | 4.63 | |
| IEX | IDEX Corporation | 1.04 | 10 per month | 0.73 | 0.16 | 2.68 | (1.79) | 6.54 | |
| GGG | Graco Inc | (0.14) | 6 per month | 1.11 | 0.04 | 2.46 | (1.86) | 6.74 | |
| WCC | WESCO International | 4.02 | 11 per month | 1.77 | 0.18 | 3.54 | (3.42) | 16.49 | |
| AVY | Avery Dennison Corp | (1.27) | 10 per month | 1.05 | 0.02 | 2.52 | (1.68) | 6.45 | |
| LECO | Lincoln Electric Holdings | (3.35) | 7 per month | 1.53 | 0.08 | 2.53 | (2.84) | 7.77 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 0.87 | 7 per month | 0.79 | 0.31 | 2.11 | (1.65) | 4.16 | |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 0.30 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.94 | (3.40) | 15.38 | |
| LTM | LATAM Airlines Group | 0.99 | 11 per month | 1.06 | 0.35 | 3.95 | (2.24) | 8.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for CNH Industrial
For every potential investor in CNH, whether a beginner or expert, CNH Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CNH Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CNH. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CNH Industrial's price trends.CNH Industrial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CNH Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CNH Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CNH Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CNH Industrial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CNH Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CNH Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CNH Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CNH Industrial NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.059 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 10.85 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 10.96 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.66 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.33 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 60.21 |
CNH Industrial Risk Indicators
The analysis of CNH Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CNH Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cnh stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.08 | |||
| Variance | 4.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.83) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CNH Industrial
The number of cover stories for CNH Industrial depends on current market conditions and CNH Industrial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that CNH Industrial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about CNH Industrial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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CNH Industrial Short Properties
CNH Industrial's future price predictability will typically decrease when CNH Industrial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of CNH Industrial NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential CNH Industrial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CNH Industrial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CNH Industrial to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Is there potential for Agricultural & Farm Machinery market expansion? Will CNH introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CNH Industrial. Projected growth potential of CNH fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about CNH Industrial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.75) | Dividend Share 0.25 | Earnings Share 0.48 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) |
Understanding CNH Industrial NV requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects CNH's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what CNH Industrial's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push CNH Industrial's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between CNH Industrial's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding CNH Industrial should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, CNH Industrial's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.