Central Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CPF Stock | USD 31.42 1.45 4.41% |
Central Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Central Pacific's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Central Pacific's share price is at 52 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Central Pacific, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.406 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.75 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.7833 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.1367 | Wall Street Target Price 35.5 |
Using Central Pacific hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Central Pacific Financial from the perspective of Central Pacific response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Central Pacific using Central Pacific's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Central using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Central Pacific's stock price.
Central Pacific Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
Central Pacific's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Central Pacific Financial stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Central Pacific's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Central Pacific stock will not fluctuate a lot when Central Pacific's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Central Pacific Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 32.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.79. Central Pacific after-hype prediction price | USD 31.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Pacific to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Central contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Central Pacific Financial will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Central Pacific trading at USD 31.42, that is roughly USD 0.0202 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Central Pacific's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Central Pacific Financial options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Central Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Central Pacific's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Central Pacific's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Central Pacific stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Central Pacific's open interest, investors have to compare it to Central Pacific's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Central Pacific is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Central. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Central Pacific Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Central price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Central using various technical indicators. When you analyze Central charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Central Pacific Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Central Pacific's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1989-06-30 | Previous Quarter 317 M | Current Value 102.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 158 M |
Central Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Central Pacific Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 32.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Central Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Central Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Central Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Central Pacific | Central Pacific Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Central Pacific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Central Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Central Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.94 and 34.62, respectively. We have considered Central Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Central Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Central Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9507 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.472 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.795 |
Predictive Modules for Central Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Central Pacific Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Central Pacific After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Central Pacific at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Central Pacific or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Central Pacific, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Central Pacific Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Central Pacific's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Central Pacific's historical news coverage. Central Pacific's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 29.59 and 33.27, respectively. We have considered Central Pacific's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Central Pacific is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Central Pacific Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Central Pacific Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Central Pacific is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Central Pacific backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Central Pacific, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.84 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
31.42 | 31.43 | 0.03 |
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Central Pacific Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Central Pacific Financial is traded for 31.42. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Central is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 31.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Central Pacific is about 2666.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 31.43. The company reported the last year's revenue of 340.48 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 53.41 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 260.67 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Pacific to cross-verify your projections.Central Pacific Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Central Pacific's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Central Pacific's future price movements. Getting to know how Central Pacific's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Central Pacific may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group | (0.34) | 7 per month | 1.10 | 0.14 | 3.39 | (2.70) | 43.86 | |
| HAFC | Hanmi Financial | (0.18) | 10 per month | 0.90 | 0.13 | 3.23 | (1.73) | 12.14 | |
| CFFN | Capitol Federal Financial | (0.06) | 9 per month | 1.46 | 0.04 | 2.80 | (2.44) | 7.14 | |
| HFWA | Heritage Financial | (0.39) | 8 per month | 1.50 | 0.10 | 4.71 | (3.38) | 8.62 | |
| BFST | Business First Bancshares | 0.38 | 10 per month | 1.08 | 0.11 | 2.88 | (1.66) | 10.57 | |
| FSBC | Five Star Bancorp | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.32 | 0.08 | 4.00 | (2.50) | 9.22 | |
| AMAL | Amalgamated Bank | 0.71 | 8 per month | 1.07 | 0.25 | 3.60 | (2.09) | 8.06 | |
| HBT | Hbt Financial | (0.16) | 7 per month | 1.33 | 0.07 | 3.07 | (2.89) | 7.65 | |
| EQBK | Equity Bancshares | 0.18 | 6 per month | 1.76 | 0.06 | 2.89 | (2.03) | 7.19 | |
| SBSI | Southside Bancshares | 0.43 | 9 per month | 0.91 | 0.12 | 2.73 | (1.57) | 5.24 |
Other Forecasting Options for Central Pacific
For every potential investor in Central, whether a beginner or expert, Central Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Central Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Central. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Central Pacific's price trends.Central Pacific Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Central Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Central Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Central Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Central Pacific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Central Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Central Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Central Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Central Pacific Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Central Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Central Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Central Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting central stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Variance | 3.37 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Central Pacific
The number of cover stories for Central Pacific depends on current market conditions and Central Pacific's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Central Pacific is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Central Pacific's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Central Pacific Short Properties
Central Pacific's future price predictability will typically decrease when Central Pacific's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Central Pacific Financial often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Central Pacific's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Central Pacific's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 27.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 924.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Central Pacific to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Central Pacific. If investors know Central will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Central Pacific listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.406 | Dividend Share 1.07 | Earnings Share 2.43 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.109 |
The market value of Central Pacific Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Central that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Central Pacific's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Central Pacific's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Central Pacific's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Central Pacific's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Central Pacific's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Central Pacific is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Central Pacific's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.