Criteo Sa Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| CRTO Stock | USD 20.61 0.32 1.58% |
Criteo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Criteo Sa's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Criteo Sa's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Criteo Sa fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength momentum indicator of Criteo Sa's share price is approaching 49 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Criteo Sa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.364 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5909 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.6662 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.5928 | Wall Street Target Price 35.75 |
Using Criteo Sa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Criteo Sa from the perspective of Criteo Sa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Criteo Sa using Criteo Sa's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Criteo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Criteo Sa's stock price.
Criteo Sa Short Interest
An investor who is long Criteo Sa may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Criteo Sa and may potentially protect profits, hedge Criteo Sa with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 23.5514 | Short Percent 0.0186 | Short Ratio 1.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 649.4 K | 50 Day MA 20.322 |
Criteo Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Criteo Sa on the next trading day is expected to be 20.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.41.Criteo Sa Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Criteo Sa's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Criteo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Criteo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Criteo Sa. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Criteo Sa's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Criteo Sa.
Criteo Sa Implied Volatility | 0.62 |
Criteo Sa's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Criteo Sa stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Criteo Sa's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Criteo Sa stock will not fluctuate a lot when Criteo Sa's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Criteo Sa on the next trading day is expected to be 20.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.41. Criteo Sa after-hype prediction price | USD 20.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Criteo Sa to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Criteo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Criteo Sa will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0388% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Criteo Sa trading at USD 20.61, that is roughly USD 0.007986 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Criteo Sa's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Criteo Sa options at the current volatility level of 0.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Criteo Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Criteo Sa's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Criteo Sa's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Criteo Sa stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Criteo Sa's open interest, investors have to compare it to Criteo Sa's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Criteo Sa is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Criteo. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Criteo Sa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Criteo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Criteo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Criteo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Criteo Sa Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Criteo Sa's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 205.7 M | Current Value 255 M | Quarterly Volatility 141.9 M |
Criteo Sa Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Criteo Sa on the next trading day is expected to be 20.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.28, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Criteo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Criteo Sa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Criteo Sa Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Criteo Sa | Criteo Sa Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Criteo Sa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Criteo Sa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Criteo Sa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.21 and 23.41, respectively. We have considered Criteo Sa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Criteo Sa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Criteo Sa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8418 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4329 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.4065 |
Predictive Modules for Criteo Sa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Criteo Sa. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Criteo Sa's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Criteo Sa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Criteo Sa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Criteo Sa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Criteo Sa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Criteo Sa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Criteo Sa's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Criteo Sa's historical news coverage. Criteo Sa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 17.68 and 22.88, respectively. We have considered Criteo Sa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Criteo Sa is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Criteo Sa is based on 3 months time horizon.
Criteo Sa Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Criteo Sa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Criteo Sa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Criteo Sa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 2.60 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.61 | 20.28 | 0.05 |
|
Criteo Sa Hype Timeline
Criteo Sa is currently traded for 20.61. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Criteo is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 20.28. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Criteo Sa is about 2988.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.61. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.92. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Criteo Sa has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.89. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Criteo Sa to cross-verify your projections.Criteo Sa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Criteo Sa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Criteo Sa's future price movements. Getting to know how Criteo Sa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Criteo Sa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MNTN | MNTN Inc | (0.60) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.50 | (6.57) | 23.70 | |
| STGW | Stagwell | 0.12 | 11 per month | 3.47 | 0.09 | 5.90 | (5.55) | 31.07 | |
| MOMO | Hello Group | (0.20) | 11 per month | 1.63 | (0.04) | 2.80 | (2.36) | 9.42 | |
| ZD | Ziff Davis | (0.55) | 6 per month | 2.15 | 0.01 | 4.30 | (3.53) | 11.02 | |
| FUBO | Fubotv Inc | (0.05) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 4.28 | (5.34) | 18.47 | |
| GIBO | Global IBO Group | 0.04 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 9.44 | (7.66) | 28.39 | |
| CCO | Clear Channel Outdoor | 0.00 | 8 per month | 2.27 | 0.03 | 5.62 | (4.07) | 13.17 | |
| DLX | Deluxe | (0.34) | 10 per month | 1.44 | 0.16 | 3.55 | (2.39) | 18.48 | |
| IDT | IDT Corporation | 0.26 | 10 per month | 1.49 | (0.05) | 2.30 | (2.49) | 6.84 | |
| GLIBA | GCI Liberty | 0.45 | 16 per month | 2.30 | 0.01 | 3.52 | (3.31) | 13.46 |
Other Forecasting Options for Criteo Sa
For every potential investor in Criteo, whether a beginner or expert, Criteo Sa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Criteo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Criteo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Criteo Sa's price trends.Criteo Sa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Criteo Sa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Criteo Sa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Criteo Sa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Criteo Sa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Criteo Sa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Criteo Sa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Criteo Sa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Criteo Sa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Criteo Sa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Criteo Sa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Criteo Sa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting criteo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.45 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.27 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.07 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Criteo Sa
The number of cover stories for Criteo Sa depends on current market conditions and Criteo Sa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Criteo Sa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Criteo Sa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Criteo Sa Short Properties
Criteo Sa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Criteo Sa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Criteo Sa often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Criteo Sa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Criteo Sa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 58.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 316.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Criteo Sa to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Criteo Stock, please use our How to Invest in Criteo Sa guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Advertising space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Criteo Sa. If investors know Criteo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Criteo Sa listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.364 | Earnings Share 2.96 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.023 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Criteo Sa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Criteo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Criteo Sa's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Criteo Sa's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Criteo Sa's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Criteo Sa's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Criteo Sa's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Criteo Sa is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Criteo Sa's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.