Fifth District Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| FDSB Stock | 15.05 0.05 0.33% |
Fifth Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fifth District stock prices and determine the direction of Fifth District Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fifth District's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Fifth District's stock price is about 68. This usually indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Fifth, making its price go up or down. Momentum 68
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.946 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 |
Using Fifth District hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fifth District Bancorp from the perspective of Fifth District response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fifth District Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.08. Fifth District after-hype prediction price | USD 15.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fifth District to cross-verify your projections. Fifth District Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fifth price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fifth using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fifth charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fifth District Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Fifth District Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fifth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fifth District's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fifth District Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fifth District | Fifth District Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fifth District Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fifth District's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fifth District's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.32 and 15.78, respectively. We have considered Fifth District's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fifth District stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fifth District stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.2538 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0438 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0862 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0061 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.085 |
Predictive Modules for Fifth District
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fifth District Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fifth District's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fifth District After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fifth District at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fifth District or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fifth District, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fifth District Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fifth District's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fifth District's historical news coverage. Fifth District's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.33 and 15.77, respectively. We have considered Fifth District's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fifth District is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fifth District Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fifth District Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fifth District is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fifth District backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fifth District, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 21 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 21 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.05 | 15.05 | 0.00 |
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Fifth District Hype Timeline
Fifth District Bancorp is currently traded for 15.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Fifth is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Fifth District is about 207.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.98. About 33.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Fifth District Bancorp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 21 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fifth District to cross-verify your projections.Fifth District Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fifth District's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fifth District's future price movements. Getting to know how Fifth District's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fifth District may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOTJ | Bank of the | 0.19 | 17 per month | 1.20 | 0.11 | 2.78 | (2.51) | 9.56 | |
| FUSB | First Bancshares | 0.30 | 8 per month | 1.79 | 0.1 | 2.98 | (3.07) | 13.31 | |
| UBCP | United Bancorp | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.39 | 0.04 | 2.86 | (2.56) | 8.48 | |
| IROQ | IF Bancorp | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.58 | 0.01 | 1.38 | (0.89) | 5.02 | |
| SSBI | Summit State Bank | 0.30 | 17 per month | 1.78 | 0.08 | 3.62 | (2.69) | 8.92 | |
| FNWB | First Northwest Bancorp | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.76 | 0.20 | 3.29 | (1.90) | 11.46 | |
| CLST | Catalyst Bancorp | 0.03 | 8 per month | 0.66 | 0.14 | 1.90 | (1.08) | 7.82 | |
| CPBI | Central Plains Bancshares | (4.32) | 9 per month | 1.16 | 0.01 | 1.37 | (1.17) | 5.01 | |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp | (0.15) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.06 | (2.97) | 10.87 | |
| AUBN | Auburn National Bancorporation | 0.02 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.68 | (4.38) | 17.69 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fifth District
For every potential investor in Fifth, whether a beginner or expert, Fifth District's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fifth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fifth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fifth District's price trends.Fifth District Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fifth District stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fifth District could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fifth District by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fifth District Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fifth District stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fifth District shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fifth District stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fifth District Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fifth District Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fifth District's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fifth District's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fifth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5076 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.3406 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7187 | |||
| Variance | 0.5166 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4588 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.116 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fifth District
The number of cover stories for Fifth District depends on current market conditions and Fifth District's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fifth District is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fifth District's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Fifth District Short Properties
Fifth District's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fifth District's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fifth District Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fifth District's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fifth District's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 37.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fifth District to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fifth District. If investors know Fifth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fifth District listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.946 | Earnings Share 0.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.101 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Fifth District Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fifth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fifth District's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fifth District's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fifth District's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fifth District's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fifth District's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fifth District is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fifth District's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.