Fluence Energy Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| FLNC Stock | USD 19.44 0.49 2.59% |
Fluence Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fluence Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Fluence Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Fluence Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Fluence Energy's share price is below 20 . This usually indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.16) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.09) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.2551 | Wall Street Target Price 19.3684 |
Using Fluence Energy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fluence Energy from the perspective of Fluence Energy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Fluence Energy using Fluence Energy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Fluence using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Fluence Energy's stock price.
Fluence Energy Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Fluence Energy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Fluence. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Fluence Energy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.7914 | Short Percent 0.3329 | Short Ratio 4.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 21.1 M | 50 Day MA 22.8014 |
Fluence Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fluence Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 19.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.99.Fluence Energy Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Fluence Energy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Fluence. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Fluence can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Fluence Energy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Fluence Energy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Fluence Energy.
Fluence Energy Implied Volatility | 1.24 |
Fluence Energy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Fluence Energy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Fluence Energy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Fluence Energy stock will not fluctuate a lot when Fluence Energy's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fluence Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 19.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.99. Fluence Energy after-hype prediction price | USD 19.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fluence Energy to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Fluence contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Fluence Energy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0775% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With Fluence Energy trading at USD 19.44, that is roughly USD 0.0151 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Fluence Energy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Fluence Energy options at the current volatility level of 1.24%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 Fluence Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fluence Energy's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fluence Energy's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fluence Energy stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fluence Energy's open interest, investors have to compare it to Fluence Energy's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fluence Energy is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fluence. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Fluence Energy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Fluence price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fluence using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fluence charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fluence Energy Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Fluence Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 19.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 3.70, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fluence Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fluence Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fluence Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fluence Energy | Fluence Energy Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Fluence Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fluence Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fluence Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.55 and 27.33, respectively. We have considered Fluence Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fluence Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fluence Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.582 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0392 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0563 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.99 |
Predictive Modules for Fluence Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fluence Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Fluence Energy After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Fluence Energy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fluence Energy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Fluence Energy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Fluence Energy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Fluence Energy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fluence Energy's historical news coverage. Fluence Energy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.15 and 27.05, respectively. We have considered Fluence Energy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Fluence Energy is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fluence Energy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Fluence Energy Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Fluence Energy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fluence Energy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fluence Energy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 7.89 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
19.44 | 19.10 | 0.79 |
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Fluence Energy Hype Timeline
Fluence Energy is currently traded for 19.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Fluence is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 19.1 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.79%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Fluence Energy is about 1535.02%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.52. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.26 B. Net Loss for the year was (67.99 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 297 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fluence Energy to cross-verify your projections.Fluence Energy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Fluence Energy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fluence Energy's future price movements. Getting to know how Fluence Energy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fluence Energy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RNW | Renew Energy Global | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.24 | (3.95) | 28.65 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | 0.55 | 9 per month | 1.58 | 0.22 | 3.54 | (2.93) | 10.67 | |
| AWR | American States Water | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.90 | (0.02) | 1.53 | (1.45) | 5.99 | |
| KEN | Kenon Holdings | 0.53 | 10 per month | 1.83 | 0.22 | 3.93 | (3.47) | 10.72 | |
| CWT | California Water Service | 0.56 | 9 per month | 1.24 | (0.0007) | 2.22 | (2.15) | 7.55 | |
| MGEE | MGE Energy | 1.56 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.41 | (1.66) | 4.52 | |
| AVA | Avista | (0.35) | 9 per month | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1.77 | (1.74) | 5.72 | |
| CEPU | Central Puerto SA | (0.1) | 9 per month | 2.50 | (0.01) | 5.09 | (4.23) | 13.77 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | (0.66) | 9 per month | 1.13 | 0.02 | 1.99 | (1.71) | 5.00 | |
| OTTR | Otter Tail | 3.13 | 7 per month | 0.99 | 0.12 | 2.02 | (1.87) | 7.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Fluence Energy
For every potential investor in Fluence, whether a beginner or expert, Fluence Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fluence Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fluence. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fluence Energy's price trends.Fluence Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fluence Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fluence Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fluence Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fluence Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fluence Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fluence Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fluence Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fluence Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fluence Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fluence Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fluence Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fluence stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.46 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.76 | |||
| Variance | 60.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 74.13 | |||
| Semi Variance | 71.64 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (5.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Fluence Energy
The number of cover stories for Fluence Energy depends on current market conditions and Fluence Energy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fluence Energy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fluence Energy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Fluence Energy Short Properties
Fluence Energy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fluence Energy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fluence Energy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fluence Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fluence Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 130.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 690.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fluence Energy to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Fluence Stock refer to our How to Trade Fluence Stock guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Will Electrical Components & Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Fluence diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fluence Energy. Market participants price Fluence higher when confident in its future expansion prospects. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Fluence Energy data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.64) | Earnings Share (0.33) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets |
Understanding Fluence Energy requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Fluence's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Fluence Energy's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Fluence Energy's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fluence Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fluence Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. In contrast, Fluence Energy's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.