German American Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| GABC Stock | USD 41.60 1.81 4.55% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of German American Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.60. German Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast German American stock prices and determine the direction of German American Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of German American's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of German American's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling German American, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.319 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.885 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.47 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.6717 | Wall Street Target Price 45.6667 |
Using German American hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of German American Bancorp from the perspective of German American response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards German American using German American's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards German using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of German American's stock price.
German American Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in German American's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards German. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of German American stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 39.2051 | Short Percent 0.0351 | Short Ratio 8.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 39.8604 |
German American Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to German American's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in German. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding German can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around German American Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
German American Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
German American's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of German American Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if German American's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that German American stock will not fluctuate a lot when German American's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of German American Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.60. German American after-hype prediction price | USD 41.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of German American to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current German contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that German American Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With German American trading at USD 41.6, that is roughly USD 0.0268 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating German American's daily price movement you should consider acquiring German American Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 German Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast German American's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in German American's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for German American stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current German American's open interest, investors have to compare it to German American's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of German American is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in German. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
German American Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine German price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for German using various technical indicators. When you analyze German charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
German American Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of German American Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 40.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58, mean absolute percentage error of 0.56, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict German Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that German American's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
German American Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest German American | German American Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
German American Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting German American's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. German American's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.11 and 42.10, respectively. We have considered German American's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of German American stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent German American stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5323 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5837 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0147 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.6039 |
Predictive Modules for German American
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as German American Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.German American After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of German American at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in German American or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of German American, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
German American Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting German American's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on German American's historical news coverage. German American's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.12 and 43.08, respectively. We have considered German American's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
German American is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of German American Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
German American Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as German American is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading German American backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with German American, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.50 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 4 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
41.60 | 41.60 | 0.00 |
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German American Hype Timeline
German American Bancorp is currently traded for 41.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. German is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 86.21%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on German American is about 192.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.51. About 52.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.39. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. German American Bancorp has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.43. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The firm had 3:2 split on the 24th of April 2017. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of German American to cross-verify your projections.German American Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to German American's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict German American's future price movements. Getting to know how German American's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how German American may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | (1.74) | 12 per month | 1.34 | (0.03) | 3.02 | (2.46) | 7.98 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.42) | 11 per month | 0.84 | 0.18 | 3.41 | (1.65) | 5.90 | |
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.30) | 20 per month | 0.95 | 0.11 | 2.95 | (2.08) | 6.47 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.76 | 0.09 | 2.67 | (1.58) | 6.09 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | (1.74) | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.07 | 3.89 | (2.87) | 8.29 | |
| STBA | ST Bancorp | (0.58) | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.16 | 2.62 | (1.64) | 6.81 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | 1.30 | 28 per month | 1.09 | 0.02 | 2.08 | (1.50) | 6.00 | |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares | (1.74) | 4 per month | 1.44 | 0.09 | 5.13 | (2.37) | 8.08 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | (0.45) | 9 per month | 1.02 | 0.09 | 2.85 | (2.64) | 6.32 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | (1.74) | 13 per month | 1.14 | 0.08 | 2.92 | (1.33) | 7.09 |
Other Forecasting Options for German American
For every potential investor in German, whether a beginner or expert, German American's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. German Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in German. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying German American's price trends.German American Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with German American stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of German American could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing German American by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
German American Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how German American stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading German American shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying German American stock market strength indicators, traders can identify German American Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
German American Risk Indicators
The analysis of German American's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in German American's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting german stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for German American
The number of cover stories for German American depends on current market conditions and German American's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that German American is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about German American's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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German American Short Properties
German American's future price predictability will typically decrease when German American's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of German American Bancorp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential German American's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. German American's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 29.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of German American to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of German American. If investors know German will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about German American listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.319 | Dividend Share 1.16 | Earnings Share 2.89 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.513 |
The market value of German American Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of German that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of German American's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is German American's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because German American's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect German American's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between German American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if German American is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, German American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.