Greenfire Resources Stock Forward View
| GFR Stock | 5.34 0.11 2.02% |
Greenfire Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Greenfire Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Greenfire Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Greenfire Resources fundamentals over time.
As of today, The value of relative strength index of Greenfire Resources' share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Greenfire Resources, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.605 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.81 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.01 | Wall Street Target Price 5.7537 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.23 |
Using Greenfire Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Greenfire Resources from the perspective of Greenfire Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greenfire Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 5.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.66. Greenfire Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 5.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Greenfire Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Greenfire price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Greenfire using various technical indicators. When you analyze Greenfire charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Greenfire Resources Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Greenfire Resources' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 77.5 M | Current Value 60.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 36.4 M |
Greenfire Resources Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Greenfire Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 5.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Greenfire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Greenfire Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Greenfire Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Greenfire Resources | Greenfire Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Greenfire Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Greenfire Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Greenfire Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.85 and 8.91, respectively. We have considered Greenfire Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Greenfire Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Greenfire Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7877 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1583 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0335 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.6588 |
Predictive Modules for Greenfire Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Greenfire Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Greenfire Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Greenfire Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Greenfire Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Greenfire Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Greenfire Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Greenfire Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Greenfire Resources' historical news coverage. Greenfire Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.81 and 8.87, respectively. We have considered Greenfire Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Greenfire Resources is relatively risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Greenfire Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Greenfire Resources Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Greenfire Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Greenfire Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Greenfire Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.35 | 3.53 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.34 | 5.34 | 0.00 |
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Greenfire Resources Hype Timeline
On the 2nd of February Greenfire Resources is traded for 5.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Greenfire is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.35%. %. The volatility of related hype on Greenfire Resources is about 58833.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.34. About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.07. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Greenfire Resources had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Greenfire Resources to cross-verify your projections.Greenfire Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Greenfire Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Greenfire Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Greenfire Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Greenfire Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPRK | GeoPark | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.34 | 0.01 | 4.21 | (2.75) | 15.62 | |
| WTI | WT Offshore | 0.06 | 10 per month | 2.73 | (0.01) | 6.28 | (4.55) | 14.21 | |
| FET | Forum Energy Technologies | (0.46) | 10 per month | 3.59 | 0.16 | 5.52 | (3.56) | 18.53 | |
| PNRG | PrimeEnergy | 0.23 | 9 per month | 2.36 | 0.14 | 5.49 | (4.10) | 15.84 | |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services | (0.22) | 10 per month | 1.80 | 0.16 | 3.46 | (2.45) | 11.12 | |
| REI | Ring Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.72 | 0.12 | 5.68 | (3.09) | 11.11 | |
| BRY | Berry Petroleum Corp | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.46 | (4.20) | 8.78 | |
| GEOS | Geospace Technologies | 1.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.86 | (9.68) | 32.68 | |
| OBE | Obsidian Energy | 0.06 | 8 per month | 2.59 | 0.08 | 4.11 | (4.05) | 12.32 | |
| NC | NACCO Industries | (0.63) | 10 per month | 1.91 | 0.13 | 6.28 | (3.66) | 12.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Greenfire Resources
For every potential investor in Greenfire, whether a beginner or expert, Greenfire Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Greenfire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Greenfire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Greenfire Resources' price trends.Greenfire Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Greenfire Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Greenfire Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Greenfire Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Greenfire Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Greenfire Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Greenfire Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Greenfire Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Greenfire Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Greenfire Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Greenfire Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Greenfire Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting greenfire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Variance | 13.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.05 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Greenfire Resources
The number of cover stories for Greenfire Resources depends on current market conditions and Greenfire Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Greenfire Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Greenfire Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Greenfire Resources Short Properties
Greenfire Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when Greenfire Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Greenfire Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Greenfire Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Greenfire Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 71.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 67.4 M |
Additional Tools for Greenfire Stock Analysis
When running Greenfire Resources' price analysis, check to measure Greenfire Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Greenfire Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Greenfire Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Greenfire Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Greenfire Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Greenfire Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.