Harley Davidson Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| HOG Stock | USD 34.50 0.95 2.83% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harley Davidson on the next trading day is expected to be 34.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.22. Harley Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Harley Davidson's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Harley |
Harley Davidson Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Harley Davidson's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-12-31 | Previous Quarter 2 B | Current Value 2.2 B | Quarterly Volatility 729.7 M |
Harley Davidson Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Harley Davidson on the next trading day is expected to be 34.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Harley Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Harley Davidson's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Harley Davidson Stock Forecast Pattern
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Harley Davidson Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Harley Davidson's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Harley Davidson's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 32.00 and 36.41, respectively. We have considered Harley Davidson's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Harley Davidson stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Harley Davidson stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4361 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9544 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0271 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.2212 |
Predictive Modules for Harley Davidson
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Harley Davidson. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Harley Davidson
For every potential investor in Harley, whether a beginner or expert, Harley Davidson's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Harley Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Harley. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Harley Davidson's price trends.Harley Davidson Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Harley Davidson stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Harley Davidson could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harley Davidson by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Harley Davidson Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Harley Davidson's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Harley Davidson's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Harley Davidson Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Harley Davidson stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Harley Davidson shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Harley Davidson stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Harley Davidson entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Harley Davidson Risk Indicators
The analysis of Harley Davidson's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Harley Davidson's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting harley stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Variance | 4.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Harley Davidson is a strong investment it is important to analyze Harley Davidson's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Harley Davidson's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Harley Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Harley Davidson to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Harley Stock please use our How to Invest in Harley Davidson guide.You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Motorcycle Manufacturers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.34) | Dividend Share 0.683 | Earnings Share 4.49 | Revenue Per Share 41.279 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
The market value of Harley Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Harley Davidson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.