Kenon Holdings Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| KEN Stock | USD 73.09 2.44 3.45% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Kenon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 72.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.30. Kenon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Kenon Holdings' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Kenon Holdings' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Kenon Holdings fundamentals over time.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Kenon Holdings' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Wall Street Target Price 29.85 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
Using Kenon Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Kenon Holdings from the perspective of Kenon Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Kenon Holdings using Kenon Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Kenon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Kenon Holdings' stock price.
Kenon Holdings Implied Volatility | 0.55 |
Kenon Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Kenon Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Kenon Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Kenon Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Kenon Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Kenon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 72.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.30. Kenon Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 72.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kenon Holdings to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Kenon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Kenon Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0344% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Kenon Holdings trading at USD 73.09, that is roughly USD 0.0251 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Kenon Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Kenon Holdings options at the current volatility level of 0.55%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Kenon Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Kenon Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Kenon Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Kenon Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Kenon Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Kenon Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Kenon Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Kenon. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Kenon Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Kenon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Kenon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Kenon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kenon Holdings Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Kenon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 72.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.99, mean absolute percentage error of 1.60, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kenon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kenon Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kenon Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kenon Holdings | Kenon Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kenon Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kenon Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kenon Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.27 and 74.02, respectively. We have considered Kenon Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kenon Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kenon Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5786 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9885 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.3007 |
Predictive Modules for Kenon Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kenon Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kenon Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Kenon Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Kenon Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Kenon Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Kenon Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Kenon Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Kenon Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Kenon Holdings' historical news coverage. Kenon Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 70.68 and 74.46, respectively. We have considered Kenon Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Kenon Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Kenon Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Kenon Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Kenon Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Kenon Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Kenon Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.60 | 1.88 | 0.51 | 0.20 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
73.09 | 72.57 | 0.71 |
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Kenon Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January Kenon Holdings is traded for 73.09. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.2. Kenon is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 72.57. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.71%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.6%. The volatility of related hype on Kenon Holdings is about 574.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 72.89. About 62.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Kenon Holdings was now reported as 26.15. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.65. Kenon Holdings last dividend was issued on the 14th of April 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kenon Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Kenon Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Kenon Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Kenon Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Kenon Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Kenon Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AWR | American States Water | 0.34 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.53 | (1.87) | 5.97 | |
| RNW | Renew Energy Global | (0.05) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.78 | (3.95) | 29.93 | |
| CWT | California Water Service | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.22 | (2.85) | 7.55 | |
| FLNC | Fluence Energy | (1.04) | 11 per month | 5.79 | 0.10 | 13.24 | (11.87) | 37.18 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | (0.14) | 10 per month | 1.84 | 0.15 | 3.54 | (2.93) | 10.67 | |
| MGEE | MGE Energy | (1.45) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.58 | (1.90) | 4.52 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | (0.18) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.99 | (2.41) | 5.00 | |
| AVA | Avista | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.99 | (0.02) | 1.67 | (1.74) | 5.72 | |
| CEPU | Central Puerto SA | (0.26) | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0.16 | 7.75 | (4.23) | 44.62 | |
| OTTR | Otter Tail | (0.22) | 7 per month | 0.98 | 0.08 | 2.02 | (1.87) | 7.91 |
Other Forecasting Options for Kenon Holdings
For every potential investor in Kenon, whether a beginner or expert, Kenon Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kenon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kenon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kenon Holdings' price trends.Kenon Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kenon Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kenon Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kenon Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kenon Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kenon Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kenon Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kenon Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Kenon Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kenon Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kenon Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kenon Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kenon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.64) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Kenon Holdings
The number of cover stories for Kenon Holdings depends on current market conditions and Kenon Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Kenon Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Kenon Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Kenon Holdings Short Properties
Kenon Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Kenon Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Kenon Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Kenon Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Kenon Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 52.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kenon Holdings to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Kenon Stock, please use our How to Invest in Kenon Holdings guide.You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Is Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Kenon Holdings. If investors know Kenon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Kenon Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Dividend Share 4.8 | Earnings Share (1.65) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.083 |
The market value of Kenon Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Kenon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Kenon Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Kenon Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Kenon Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Kenon Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Kenon Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Kenon Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Kenon Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.