Li Auto Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| LI Stock | USD 17.26 0.11 0.64% |
Li Auto Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Li Auto's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 30th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Li Auto's share price is approaching 47. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Li Auto, making its price go up or down. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.5418 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.0733 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.7888 | Wall Street Target Price 23.907 |
Using Li Auto hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Li Auto from the perspective of Li Auto response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Li Auto using Li Auto's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Li Auto using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Li Auto's stock price.
Li Auto Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Li Auto's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Li Auto. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Li Auto stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 23.3941 | Short Percent 0.0582 | Short Ratio 5.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.7 M | 50 Day MA 17.2454 |
Li Auto Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Li Auto on the next trading day is expected to be 17.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13.Li Auto Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Li Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Li Auto. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Li Auto can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Li Auto. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Li Auto's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Li Auto.
Li Auto Implied Volatility | 0.7 |
Li Auto's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Li Auto stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Li Auto's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Li Auto stock will not fluctuate a lot when Li Auto's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Li Auto on the next trading day is expected to be 17.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13. Li Auto after-hype prediction price | USD 17.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Li Auto to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Li Auto contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Li Auto will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0438% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Li Auto trading at USD 17.26, that is roughly USD 0.007551 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Li Auto's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Li Auto options at the current volatility level of 0.7%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Li Auto Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Li Auto's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Li Auto's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Li Auto stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Li Auto's open interest, investors have to compare it to Li Auto's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Li Auto is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Li Auto. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Li Auto Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Li Auto price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Li Auto using various technical indicators. When you analyze Li Auto charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Li Auto Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Li Auto on the next trading day is expected to be 17.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Li Auto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Li Auto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Li Auto Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Li Auto | Li Auto Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Li Auto Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Li Auto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Li Auto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.28 and 19.24, respectively. We have considered Li Auto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Li Auto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Li Auto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0107 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0589 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2808 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.13 |
Predictive Modules for Li Auto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Li Auto. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Li Auto After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Li Auto at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Li Auto or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Li Auto, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Li Auto Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Li Auto's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Li Auto's historical news coverage. Li Auto's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.29 and 19.23, respectively. We have considered Li Auto's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Li Auto is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Li Auto is based on 3 months time horizon.
Li Auto Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Li Auto is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Li Auto backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Li Auto, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.27 | 1.98 | 0.78 | 0.08 | 16 Events / Month | 9 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
17.26 | 17.26 | 0.00 |
|
Li Auto Hype Timeline
As of January 30, 2026 Li Auto is listed for 17.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.78, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Li Auto is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 68.28%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Li Auto is about 638.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.34. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.66. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Li Auto has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.01. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Li Auto to cross-verify your projections.Li Auto Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Li Auto's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Li Auto's future price movements. Getting to know how Li Auto's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Li Auto may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GELHY | Geely Automobile Holdings | (0.63) | 35 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.40 | (2.76) | 6.06 | |
| XPEV | Xpeng Inc | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.80 | (6.15) | 26.46 | |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 0.47 | 7 per month | 1.40 | 0.05 | 3.26 | (2.51) | 8.67 | |
| NVR | NVR Inc | 3.95 | 7 per month | 1.12 | (0.01) | 2.66 | (1.92) | 5.61 | |
| NIO | Nio Class A | (0.11) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.92 | (5.45) | 11.98 | |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corp | 0.01 | 29 per month | 1.37 | 0.02 | 3.09 | (2.19) | 7.40 | |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | (0.63) | 33 per month | 1.04 | (0.03) | 2.13 | (1.84) | 6.22 | |
| HMC | Honda Motor Co | (0.36) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.85 | (2.32) | 6.42 | |
| RIVN | Rivian Automotive | (0.53) | 7 per month | 3.13 | 0.06 | 10.70 | (6.11) | 31.17 | |
| ULTA | Ulta Beauty | 1.04 | 22 per month | 1.25 | 0.12 | 2.71 | (2.29) | 16.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Li Auto
For every potential investor in Li Auto, whether a beginner or expert, Li Auto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Li Auto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Li Auto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Li Auto's price trends.Li Auto Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Li Auto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Li Auto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Li Auto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Li Auto Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Li Auto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Li Auto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Li Auto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Li Auto entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Li Auto Risk Indicators
The analysis of Li Auto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Li Auto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting li auto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Variance | 3.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Li Auto
The number of cover stories for Li Auto depends on current market conditions and Li Auto's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Li Auto is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Li Auto's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Li Auto Short Properties
Li Auto's future price predictability will typically decrease when Li Auto's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Li Auto often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Li Auto's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Li Auto's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 112.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Li Auto to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Li Auto Stock please use our How to Invest in Li Auto guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is there potential for Automobile Manufacturers market expansion? Will Li Auto introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Li Auto. Expected growth trajectory for Li Auto significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Li Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.02) | Earnings Share 1.1 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.36) | Return On Assets |
Li Auto's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Li Auto's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Li Auto's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since Li Auto's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that Li Auto's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Li Auto represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, Li Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.