Lake Shore Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| LSBK Stock | USD 15.38 0.12 0.77% |
Lake Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Lake Shore's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Lake Shore's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Lake Shore fundamentals over time.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Lake Shore's stock price is about 60. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lake, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.355 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.201 |
Using Lake Shore hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lake Shore Bancorp from the perspective of Lake Shore response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lake Shore Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.55. Lake Shore after-hype prediction price | USD 15.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lake Shore to cross-verify your projections. Lake Shore Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lake price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lake using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lake charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lake Shore Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lake Shore Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lake Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lake Shore's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lake Shore Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lake Shore | Lake Shore Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lake Shore Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lake Shore's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lake Shore's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.27 and 16.53, respectively. We have considered Lake Shore's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lake Shore stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lake Shore stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0272 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1279 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.5484 |
Predictive Modules for Lake Shore
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lake Shore Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lake Shore After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lake Shore at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lake Shore or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lake Shore, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lake Shore Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lake Shore's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lake Shore's historical news coverage. Lake Shore's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.35 and 16.61, respectively. We have considered Lake Shore's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lake Shore is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lake Shore Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lake Shore Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lake Shore is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lake Shore backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lake Shore, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.13 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
15.38 | 15.48 | 0.13 |
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Lake Shore Hype Timeline
Lake Shore Bancorp is now traded for 15.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Lake is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.48. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Lake Shore is about 918.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.40. About 49.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.8. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lake Shore Bancorp last dividend was issued on the 3rd of November 2025. The entity had 1354:1000 split on the 21st of July 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lake Shore to cross-verify your projections.Lake Shore Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lake Shore's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lake Shore's future price movements. Getting to know how Lake Shore's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lake Shore may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SFBC | Sound Financial Bancorp | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.00 | (1.15) | 6.34 | |
| MGYR | Magyar Bancorp | (0.1) | 7 per month | 1.04 | (0.01) | 1.81 | (2.09) | 6.78 | |
| RVSB | Riverview Bancorp | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.33 | (2.50) | 9.27 | |
| PROV | Provident Financial Holdings | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.78 | (0.03) | 1.34 | (1.04) | 4.66 | |
| UNB | Union Bankshares | (0.12) | 21 per month | 2.11 | (0.03) | 2.72 | (3.21) | 11.80 | |
| RBKB | Rhinebeck Bancorp | (0.12) | 12 per month | 1.19 | 0.11 | 3.65 | (2.18) | 8.81 | |
| AFBI | Affinity Bancshares | 2.11 | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.05 | 2.51 | (2.18) | 13.88 | |
| FGBI | First Guaranty Bancshares | 0.05 | 15 per month | 4.71 | 0.02 | 5.38 | (7.07) | 21.15 | |
| SBFG | SB Financial Group | (0.52) | 10 per month | 2.29 | 0.05 | 4.58 | (3.96) | 10.33 | |
| BSBK | Bogota Financial Corp | 0.05 | 7 per month | 1.22 | (0.06) | 1.75 | (2.21) | 5.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lake Shore
For every potential investor in Lake, whether a beginner or expert, Lake Shore's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lake Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lake. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lake Shore's price trends.Lake Shore Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lake Shore stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lake Shore could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lake Shore by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lake Shore Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lake Shore stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lake Shore shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lake Shore stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lake Shore Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lake Shore Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lake Shore's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lake Shore's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lake stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8401 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7301 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.36 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.533 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lake Shore
The number of cover stories for Lake Shore depends on current market conditions and Lake Shore's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lake Shore is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lake Shore's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lake Shore to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lake Shore. If investors know Lake will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lake Shore listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.355 | Dividend Share 0.27 | Earnings Share 0.96 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.201 |
The market value of Lake Shore Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lake that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lake Shore's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lake Shore's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lake Shore's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lake Shore's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lake Shore's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lake Shore is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lake Shore's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.