Lufax Holding Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| LU Stock | USD 2.65 0.00 0.00% |
Lufax Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength indicator of Lufax Holding's share price is approaching 46. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lufax Holding, making its price go up or down. Momentum 46
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (4.50) | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.7281 | Wall Street Target Price 3.0121 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.31) |
Using Lufax Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lufax Holding from the perspective of Lufax Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lufax Holding using Lufax Holding's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lufax using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lufax Holding's stock price.
Lufax Holding Implied Volatility | 2.18 |
Lufax Holding's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lufax Holding stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lufax Holding's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lufax Holding stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lufax Holding's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lufax Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44. Lufax Holding after-hype prediction price | USD 2.65 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lufax Holding to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lufax contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lufax Holding will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.14% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Lufax Holding trading at USD 2.65, that is roughly USD 0.003611 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lufax Holding's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lufax Holding options at the current volatility level of 2.18%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Lufax Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Lufax Holding's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Lufax Holding's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Lufax Holding stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Lufax Holding's open interest, investors have to compare it to Lufax Holding's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Lufax Holding is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Lufax. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Lufax Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lufax price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lufax using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lufax charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lufax Holding Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lufax Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lufax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lufax Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lufax Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lufax Holding | Lufax Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Lufax Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lufax Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lufax Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.71 and 4.57, respectively. We have considered Lufax Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lufax Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lufax Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0074 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0414 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0158 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4434 |
Predictive Modules for Lufax Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lufax Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lufax Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lufax Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lufax Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lufax Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lufax Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lufax Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lufax Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lufax Holding's historical news coverage. Lufax Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.72 and 4.58, respectively. We have considered Lufax Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lufax Holding is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lufax Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lufax Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lufax Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lufax Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lufax Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.65 | 2.65 | 0.00 |
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Lufax Holding Hype Timeline
As of February 2, 2026 Lufax Holding is listed for 2.65. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Lufax is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lufax Holding is about 10157.89%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.65. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.19. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lufax Holding recorded a loss per share of 0.77. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of June 2024. The firm had 1:4 split on the 15th of December 2023. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lufax Holding to cross-verify your projections.Lufax Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lufax Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lufax Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how Lufax Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lufax Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NAVI | Navient Corp | (0.34) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.14 | (4.85) | 24.69 | |
| OCSL | Oaktree Specialty Lending | (0.16) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 1.50 | (1.95) | 4.91 | |
| JCAP | Jefferson Capital Common | 0.81 | 7 per month | 2.40 | 0.06 | 4.12 | (2.98) | 17.08 | |
| BETR | Better Home Finance | (0.54) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 10.83 | (10.06) | 29.21 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | 0.13 | 12 per month | 1.69 | 0.03 | 4.67 | (3.18) | 11.08 | |
| HIVE | HIVE Digital Technologies | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 7.55 | (9.56) | 20.22 | |
| MHLA | Maiden Holdings | 0.13 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 1.30 | (2.41) | 6.14 | |
| EZPW | EZCORP Inc | 0.23 | 9 per month | 1.49 | 0.12 | 3.30 | (2.56) | 9.31 | |
| QFIN | 360 Finance | (0.22) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 3.31 | (5.51) | 27.66 | |
| GHLD | Guild Holdings Co | (0.04) | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1.97 | (0.35) | 221.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lufax Holding
For every potential investor in Lufax, whether a beginner or expert, Lufax Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lufax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lufax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lufax Holding's price trends.Lufax Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lufax Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lufax Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lufax Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lufax Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lufax Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lufax Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lufax Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lufax Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0404 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.66 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 46.99 |
Lufax Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lufax Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lufax Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lufax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Variance | 8.02 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lufax Holding
The number of cover stories for Lufax Holding depends on current market conditions and Lufax Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lufax Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lufax Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lufax Holding Short Properties
Lufax Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lufax Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lufax Holding often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lufax Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lufax Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 573.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40 B |
Additional Tools for Lufax Stock Analysis
When running Lufax Holding's price analysis, check to measure Lufax Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lufax Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Lufax Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lufax Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lufax Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lufax Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.