Mastercard Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| MA Stock | USD 543.73 22.36 4.29% |
Mastercard Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Mastercard stock prices and determine the direction of Mastercard's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mastercard's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Mastercard's share price is approaching 47. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mastercard, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.229 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.1932 | EPS Estimate Current Year 19.4318 | EPS Estimate Next Year 22.3696 | Wall Street Target Price 660.5946 |
Using Mastercard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mastercard from the perspective of Mastercard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Mastercard using Mastercard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Mastercard using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Mastercard's stock price.
Mastercard Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Mastercard's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Mastercard. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Mastercard stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 562.9816 | Short Percent 0.008 | Short Ratio 2.27 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.8 M | 50 Day MA 552.4476 |
Mastercard Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mastercard on the next trading day is expected to be 504.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.50.Mastercard Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Mastercard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Mastercard. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Mastercard can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Mastercard. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Mastercard's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Mastercard.
Mastercard Implied Volatility | 0.28 |
Mastercard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Mastercard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Mastercard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Mastercard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Mastercard's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mastercard on the next trading day is expected to be 504.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.50. Mastercard after-hype prediction price | USD 543.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Mastercard contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Mastercard will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0175% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Mastercard trading at USD 543.73, that is roughly USD 0.0952 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Mastercard's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Mastercard options at the current volatility level of 0.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Mastercard Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Mastercard's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Mastercard's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Mastercard stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Mastercard's open interest, investors have to compare it to Mastercard's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Mastercard is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Mastercard. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Mastercard Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mastercard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mastercard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mastercard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mastercard Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mastercard on the next trading day is expected to be 504.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.27, mean absolute percentage error of 125.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 574.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mastercard Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mastercard's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mastercard Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mastercard | Mastercard Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mastercard Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mastercard's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mastercard's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 503.53 and 506.28, respectively. We have considered Mastercard's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mastercard stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mastercard stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.7796 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.2662 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0169 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 574.5035 |
Predictive Modules for Mastercard
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mastercard. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mastercard After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mastercard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mastercard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mastercard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mastercard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mastercard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mastercard's historical news coverage. Mastercard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 542.35 and 545.11, respectively. We have considered Mastercard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mastercard is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mastercard is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mastercard Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mastercard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mastercard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mastercard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.37 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
543.73 | 543.73 | 0.00 |
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Mastercard Hype Timeline
As of January 30, 2026 Mastercard is listed for 543.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Mastercard is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 20.54%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mastercard is about 326.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 543.73. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.69. Mastercard recorded earning per share (EPS) of 16.53. The entity last dividend was issued on the 9th of January 2026. The firm had 10:1 split on the 22nd of January 2014. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mastercard to cross-verify your projections.Mastercard Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mastercard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mastercard's future price movements. Getting to know how Mastercard's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mastercard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AXP | American Express | (1.04) | 7 per month | 1.63 | (0.03) | 2.34 | (2.18) | 7.47 | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings | 0.30 | 20 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.25 | (3.30) | 8.51 | |
| UPST | Upstart Holdings | 1.30 | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.09 | (7.77) | 18.48 | |
| COF | Capital One Financial | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.69 | (4.36) | 10.57 | |
| V | Visa Class A | 0.32 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.47 | (1.62) | 10.57 | |
| ALLY | Ally Financial | 1.94 | 8 per month | 1.56 | 0 | 2.77 | (2.73) | 8.03 | |
| SOFI | SoFi Technologies | 0.14 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.53 | (6.77) | 20.12 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mastercard
For every potential investor in Mastercard, whether a beginner or expert, Mastercard's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mastercard Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mastercard. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mastercard's price trends.Mastercard Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mastercard stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mastercard could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mastercard by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mastercard Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mastercard stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mastercard shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mastercard stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mastercard entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 210629.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9266 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 532.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 536.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 22.74 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 22.36 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.33 |
Mastercard Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mastercard's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mastercard's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mastercard stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9576 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Variance | 1.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mastercard
The number of cover stories for Mastercard depends on current market conditions and Mastercard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mastercard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mastercard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mastercard Short Properties
Mastercard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mastercard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mastercard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mastercard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mastercard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 927 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.8 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mastercard to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Mastercard Stock refer to our How to Trade Mastercard Stock guide.You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is Transaction & Payment Processing Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mastercard. Expected growth trajectory for Mastercard significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Mastercard assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.229 | Earnings Share 16.53 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.167 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Mastercard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mastercard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mastercard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mastercard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mastercard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mastercard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Mastercard's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Mastercard represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Mastercard's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.