McDonalds Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MCD Stock | USD 312.95 3.70 1.20% |
McDonalds Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast McDonalds stock prices and determine the direction of McDonalds's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of McDonalds' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength indicator of McDonalds' share price is at 55. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling McDonalds, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.016 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.0873 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.1406 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.2384 | Wall Street Target Price 332.7419 |
Using McDonalds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of McDonalds from the perspective of McDonalds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards McDonalds using McDonalds' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards McDonalds using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of McDonalds' stock price.
McDonalds Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in McDonalds' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards McDonalds. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of McDonalds stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 306.2106 | Short Percent 0.0117 | Short Ratio 2.51 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.9 M | 50 Day MA 308.682 |
McDonalds Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of McDonalds on the next trading day is expected to be 312.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.91.McDonalds Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to McDonalds' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in McDonalds. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding McDonalds can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around McDonalds. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of McDonalds' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about McDonalds.
McDonalds Implied Volatility | 0.27 |
McDonalds' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of McDonalds stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if McDonalds' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that McDonalds stock will not fluctuate a lot when McDonalds' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of McDonalds on the next trading day is expected to be 312.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.91. McDonalds after-hype prediction price | USD 313.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
McDonalds | Build AI portfolio with McDonalds Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current McDonalds contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that McDonalds will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0169% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With McDonalds trading at USD 312.95, that is roughly USD 0.0528 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating McDonalds' daily price movement you should consider acquiring McDonalds options at the current volatility level of 0.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 McDonalds Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast McDonalds' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in McDonalds' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for McDonalds stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current McDonalds' open interest, investors have to compare it to McDonalds' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of McDonalds is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in McDonalds. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
McDonalds Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine McDonalds price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for McDonalds using various technical indicators. When you analyze McDonalds charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
McDonalds Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of McDonalds on the next trading day is expected to be 312.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.64, mean absolute percentage error of 10.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 155.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict McDonalds Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that McDonalds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
McDonalds Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest McDonalds | McDonalds Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
McDonalds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting McDonalds' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. McDonalds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 311.82 and 313.98, respectively. We have considered McDonalds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of McDonalds stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent McDonalds stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1554 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0086 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 155.9085 |
Predictive Modules for McDonalds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as McDonalds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of McDonalds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
McDonalds After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of McDonalds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in McDonalds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of McDonalds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
McDonalds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting McDonalds' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on McDonalds' historical news coverage. McDonalds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 312.03 and 314.19, respectively. We have considered McDonalds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
McDonalds is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of McDonalds is based on 3 months time horizon.
McDonalds Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as McDonalds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading McDonalds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with McDonalds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 1.08 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
312.95 | 313.11 | 0.05 |
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McDonalds Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January McDonalds is traded for 312.95. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. McDonalds is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 313.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 45.96%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on McDonalds is about 173.49%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 312.99. The company reported the last year's revenue of 25.92 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.22 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 15.08 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of McDonalds to cross-verify your projections.McDonalds Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to McDonalds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict McDonalds' future price movements. Getting to know how McDonalds' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how McDonalds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WING | Wingstop | (6.70) | 10 per month | 2.99 | 0 | 7.69 | (4.51) | 15.81 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | (1.90) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 4.51 | (4.96) | 14.50 | |
| WEN | The Wendys Co | (0.14) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 4.07 | (4.04) | 11.11 | |
| YFYA | Listed Funds Trust | (0.02) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.82 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.34 | 8 per month | 1.11 | 0.15 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| PODD | Insulet | (4.04) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 3.24 | (3.62) | 13.53 | |
| EAT | Brinker International | 1.40 | 10 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 6.16 | (4.67) | 12.88 | |
| TWEIX | Equity Income Fund | 15.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.06 | (0.81) | 8.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for McDonalds
For every potential investor in McDonalds, whether a beginner or expert, McDonalds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. McDonalds Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in McDonalds. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying McDonalds' price trends.McDonalds Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with McDonalds stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of McDonalds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing McDonalds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
McDonalds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how McDonalds stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading McDonalds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying McDonalds stock market strength indicators, traders can identify McDonalds entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
McDonalds Risk Indicators
The analysis of McDonalds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in McDonalds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mcdonalds stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8635 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9518 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9059 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for McDonalds
The number of cover stories for McDonalds depends on current market conditions and McDonalds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that McDonalds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about McDonalds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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McDonalds Short Properties
McDonalds' future price predictability will typically decrease when McDonalds' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of McDonalds often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential McDonalds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. McDonalds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 721.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of McDonalds to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade McDonalds Stock refer to our How to Trade McDonalds Stock guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of McDonalds. If investors know McDonalds will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about McDonalds listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.016 | Dividend Share 7.08 | Earnings Share 11.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
The market value of McDonalds is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of McDonalds that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of McDonalds' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is McDonalds' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because McDonalds' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect McDonalds' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between McDonalds' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if McDonalds is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, McDonalds' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.