McDonalds Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MCD Stock | USD 319.48 0.95 0.30% |
McDonalds Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast McDonalds stock prices and determine the direction of McDonalds's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of McDonalds' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength indicator of McDonalds' stock price is about 61. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling McDonalds, making its price go up or down. Momentum 61
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.016 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.0873 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.1344 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.2661 | Wall Street Target Price 334.8438 |
Using McDonalds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of McDonalds from the perspective of McDonalds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards McDonalds using McDonalds' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards McDonalds using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of McDonalds' stock price.
McDonalds Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in McDonalds' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards McDonalds. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of McDonalds stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 306.4101 | Short Percent 0.0109 | Short Ratio 2.49 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.2 M | 50 Day MA 309.703 |
McDonalds Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of McDonalds on the next trading day is expected to be 319.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.48.McDonalds Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to McDonalds' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in McDonalds. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding McDonalds can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around McDonalds. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of McDonalds' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about McDonalds.
McDonalds Implied Volatility | 0.32 |
McDonalds' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of McDonalds stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if McDonalds' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that McDonalds stock will not fluctuate a lot when McDonalds' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of McDonalds on the next trading day is expected to be 319.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.48. McDonalds after-hype prediction price | USD 319.19 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
McDonalds | Build AI portfolio with McDonalds Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current McDonalds contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that McDonalds will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.02% per day over the life of the 2026-05-15 option contract. With McDonalds trading at USD 319.48, that is roughly USD 0.0639 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating McDonalds' daily price movement you should consider acquiring McDonalds options at the current volatility level of 0.32%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-05-15 McDonalds Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast McDonalds' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in McDonalds' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for McDonalds stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current McDonalds' open interest, investors have to compare it to McDonalds' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of McDonalds is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in McDonalds. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
McDonalds Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine McDonalds price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for McDonalds using various technical indicators. When you analyze McDonalds charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
McDonalds Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of McDonalds on the next trading day is expected to be 319.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.62, mean absolute percentage error of 10.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 154.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict McDonalds Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that McDonalds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
McDonalds Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest McDonalds | McDonalds Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
McDonalds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting McDonalds' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. McDonalds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 318.49 and 320.47, respectively. We have considered McDonalds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of McDonalds stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent McDonalds stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.8218 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5599 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.6182 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0085 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 154.475 |
Predictive Modules for McDonalds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as McDonalds. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of McDonalds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
McDonalds After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of McDonalds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in McDonalds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of McDonalds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
McDonalds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting McDonalds' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on McDonalds' historical news coverage. McDonalds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 318.20 and 320.18, respectively. We have considered McDonalds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
McDonalds is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of McDonalds is based on 3 months time horizon.
McDonalds Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as McDonalds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading McDonalds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with McDonalds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 0.99 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
319.48 | 319.19 | 0.09 |
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McDonalds Hype Timeline
On the 4th of February McDonalds is traded for 319.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.29, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. McDonalds is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 319.19. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 45.0%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on McDonalds is about 738.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 319.46. About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.79. McDonalds recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.72. The entity last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 8th of March 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of McDonalds to cross-verify your projections.McDonalds Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to McDonalds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict McDonalds' future price movements. Getting to know how McDonalds' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how McDonalds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GSFP | Goldman Sachs | 0.13 | 4 per month | 0.33 | 0.20 | 1.27 | (1.10) | 3.10 | |
| PXGYF | PAX Global Technology | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.92 | (6.15) | 14.79 | |
| SPSTY | Singapore Post Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.41 | (3.49) | 16.23 | |
| MKDW | MKDWELL Tech Ordinary | 0.45 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.84 | (8.97) | 36.75 | |
| SPSTF | Singapore Post Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.92 | |
| CAPR | Capricor Therapeutics | (2.16) | 11 per month | 4.54 | 0.12 | 11.51 | (10.26) | 386.29 | |
| LPSN | LivePerson | (0.13) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 5.56 | (6.85) | 25.36 | |
| EVTC | Evertec | 0.37 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.94 | (3.16) | 9.49 | |
| SKLTY | Seek Ltd ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.18 | (2.93) | 9.41 | |
| WEGOF | Wescan Goldfields | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 78.98 |
Other Forecasting Options for McDonalds
For every potential investor in McDonalds, whether a beginner or expert, McDonalds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. McDonalds Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in McDonalds. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying McDonalds' price trends.McDonalds Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with McDonalds stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of McDonalds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing McDonalds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
McDonalds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how McDonalds stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading McDonalds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying McDonalds stock market strength indicators, traders can identify McDonalds entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
McDonalds Risk Indicators
The analysis of McDonalds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in McDonalds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mcdonalds stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8194 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8844 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9714 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7822 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for McDonalds
The number of cover stories for McDonalds depends on current market conditions and McDonalds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that McDonalds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about McDonalds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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McDonalds Short Properties
McDonalds' future price predictability will typically decrease when McDonalds' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of McDonalds often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential McDonalds' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. McDonalds' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 721.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of McDonalds to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade McDonalds Stock refer to our How to Trade McDonalds Stock guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure sector continue expanding? Could McDonalds diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of McDonalds. Expected growth trajectory for McDonalds significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every McDonalds data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.016 | Dividend Share 7.08 | Earnings Share 11.72 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.03 |
Understanding McDonalds requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects McDonalds's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what McDonalds' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push McDonalds' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that McDonalds' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether McDonalds represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, McDonalds' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.