Norfolk Southern Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NSC Stock | USD 285.20 0.73 0.26% |
Norfolk Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Norfolk Southern stock prices and determine the direction of Norfolk Southern's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Norfolk Southern's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of relative strength index of Norfolk Southern's share price is approaching 47. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Norfolk Southern, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.1839 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.0097 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.7315 | Wall Street Target Price 310.6316 |
Using Norfolk Southern hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norfolk Southern from the perspective of Norfolk Southern response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Norfolk Southern using Norfolk Southern's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Norfolk using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Norfolk Southern's stock price.
Norfolk Southern Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Norfolk Southern's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Norfolk. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Norfolk Southern stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 271.3069 | Short Percent 0.0413 | Short Ratio 9.34 | Shares Short Prior Month 7 M | 50 Day MA 289.4004 |
Norfolk Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norfolk Southern on the next trading day is expected to be 285.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.19.Norfolk Southern Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Norfolk Southern's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Norfolk. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Norfolk can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Norfolk Southern. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Norfolk Southern's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Norfolk Southern.
Norfolk Southern Implied Volatility | 0.3 |
Norfolk Southern's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Norfolk Southern stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Norfolk Southern's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Norfolk Southern stock will not fluctuate a lot when Norfolk Southern's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norfolk Southern on the next trading day is expected to be 285.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.19. Norfolk Southern after-hype prediction price | USD 285.33 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norfolk Southern to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Norfolk contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Norfolk Southern will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0188% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Norfolk Southern trading at USD 285.2, that is roughly USD 0.0535 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Norfolk Southern's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Norfolk Southern options at the current volatility level of 0.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Norfolk Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Norfolk Southern's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Norfolk Southern's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Norfolk Southern stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Norfolk Southern's open interest, investors have to compare it to Norfolk Southern's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Norfolk Southern is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Norfolk. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Norfolk Southern Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Norfolk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norfolk using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norfolk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Norfolk Southern Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norfolk Southern on the next trading day is expected to be 285.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.34, mean absolute percentage error of 9.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 138.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norfolk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norfolk Southern's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Norfolk Southern Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Norfolk Southern | Norfolk Southern Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Norfolk Southern Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Norfolk Southern's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norfolk Southern's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 284.10 and 286.28, respectively. We have considered Norfolk Southern's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norfolk Southern stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norfolk Southern stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2374 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.3422 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0081 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 138.1882 |
Predictive Modules for Norfolk Southern
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norfolk Southern. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Norfolk Southern's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Norfolk Southern After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Norfolk Southern at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norfolk Southern or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norfolk Southern, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Norfolk Southern Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Norfolk Southern's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norfolk Southern's historical news coverage. Norfolk Southern's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 284.24 and 286.42, respectively. We have considered Norfolk Southern's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Norfolk Southern is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norfolk Southern is based on 3 months time horizon.
Norfolk Southern Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Norfolk Southern is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norfolk Southern backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norfolk Southern, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.09 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
285.20 | 285.33 | 0.05 |
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Norfolk Southern Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January Norfolk Southern is traded for 285.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Norfolk is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 285.33 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 16.24%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.05%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Norfolk Southern is about 102.25%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 285.22. The company reported the last year's revenue of 12.12 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 2.62 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 5.68 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norfolk Southern to cross-verify your projections.Norfolk Southern Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Norfolk Southern's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norfolk Southern's future price movements. Getting to know how Norfolk Southern's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norfolk Southern may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CSX | CSX Corporation | 0.89 | 7 per month | 1.03 | 0.01 | 2.27 | (2.04) | 5.63 | |
| CP | Canadian Pacific Railway | 0.56 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.48 | (2.05) | 6.94 | |
| CNI | Canadian National Railway | 1.48 | 10 per month | 1.22 | (0.01) | 2.27 | (1.93) | 6.71 | |
| RSG | Republic Services | 1.14 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.74 | (1.50) | 4.33 | |
| CMI | Cummins | 8.68 | 9 per month | 1.06 | 0.24 | 2.87 | (2.27) | 9.83 | |
| FDX | FedEx | (4.14) | 8 per month | 0.60 | 0.26 | 2.61 | (1.59) | 7.76 | |
| URI | United Rentals | (4.28) | 9 per month | 1.60 | (0.04) | 3.90 | (2.81) | 8.83 | |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works | 1.50 | 9 per month | 1.47 | (0.04) | 2.40 | (2.82) | 6.22 | |
| PWR | Quanta Services | 4.89 | 7 per month | 2.36 | 0.06 | 3.18 | (5.00) | 9.63 | |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.77 | 0.18 | 3.68 | (1.63) | 7.16 |
Other Forecasting Options for Norfolk Southern
For every potential investor in Norfolk, whether a beginner or expert, Norfolk Southern's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norfolk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norfolk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norfolk Southern's price trends.Norfolk Southern Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norfolk Southern stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norfolk Southern could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norfolk Southern by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Norfolk Southern Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norfolk Southern stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norfolk Southern shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norfolk Southern stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norfolk Southern entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Norfolk Southern Risk Indicators
The analysis of Norfolk Southern's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norfolk Southern's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norfolk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7772 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.07 | |||
| Variance | 1.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Norfolk Southern
The number of cover stories for Norfolk Southern depends on current market conditions and Norfolk Southern's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norfolk Southern is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norfolk Southern's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Norfolk Southern Short Properties
Norfolk Southern's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norfolk Southern's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norfolk Southern often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norfolk Southern's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norfolk Southern's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 226.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norfolk Southern to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Norfolk Stock refer to our How to Trade Norfolk Stock guide.You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Will Ground Transportation sector continue expanding? Could Norfolk diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Norfolk Southern. Anticipated expansion of Norfolk directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Norfolk Southern data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.35) | Dividend Share 5.4 | Earnings Share 13.11 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.017 |
Investors evaluate Norfolk Southern using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Norfolk Southern's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Norfolk Southern's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Norfolk Southern's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Norfolk Southern should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Conversely, Norfolk Southern's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.