Blue Owl Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| OBDC Stock | 12.30 0.18 1.44% |
Blue Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Blue Owl stock prices and determine the direction of Blue Owl Capital's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Blue Owl's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Blue Owl's share price is approaching 45. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Blue Owl, making its price go up or down. Momentum 45
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3882 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.5427 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.4075 | Wall Street Target Price 14.5 |
Using Blue Owl hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Blue Owl Capital from the perspective of Blue Owl response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Blue Owl using Blue Owl's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Blue using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Blue Owl's stock price.
Blue Owl Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Blue Owl's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Blue. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Blue Owl stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 13.6194 | Short Percent 0.0272 | Short Ratio 3.21 | Shares Short Prior Month 11 M | 50 Day MA 12.6776 |
Blue Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Blue Owl Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.52.Blue Owl Capital Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Blue Owl's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Blue. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Blue can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Blue Owl Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Blue Owl's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Blue Owl.
Blue Owl Implied Volatility | 0.88 |
Blue Owl's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Blue Owl Capital stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Blue Owl's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Blue Owl stock will not fluctuate a lot when Blue Owl's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Blue Owl Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.52. Blue Owl after-hype prediction price | USD 12.48 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Owl to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Blue contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Blue Owl Capital will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.055% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Blue Owl trading at USD 12.3, that is roughly USD 0.006765 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Blue Owl's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Blue Owl Capital options at the current volatility level of 0.88%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Blue Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Blue Owl's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Blue Owl's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Blue Owl stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Blue Owl's open interest, investors have to compare it to Blue Owl's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Blue Owl is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Blue. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Blue Owl Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Blue price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Blue using various technical indicators. When you analyze Blue charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Blue Owl Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Blue Owl Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 12.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Blue Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Blue Owl's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Blue Owl Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Blue Owl | Blue Owl Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Blue Owl Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Blue Owl's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Blue Owl's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.96 and 13.64, respectively. We have considered Blue Owl's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Blue Owl stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Blue Owl stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.6974 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0063 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1253 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0101 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.52 |
Predictive Modules for Blue Owl
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Owl Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Owl's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Blue Owl After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Blue Owl at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Blue Owl or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Blue Owl, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Blue Owl Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Blue Owl's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Blue Owl's historical news coverage. Blue Owl's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.13 and 13.83, respectively. We have considered Blue Owl's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Blue Owl is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Blue Owl Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Blue Owl Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Blue Owl is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Blue Owl backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Blue Owl, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.30 | 12.48 | 0.00 |
|
Blue Owl Hype Timeline
Blue Owl Capital is now traded for 12.30. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Blue is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on Blue Owl is about 375.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.31. About 50.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.84. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Blue Owl Capital last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Owl to cross-verify your projections.Blue Owl Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Blue Owl's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Blue Owl's future price movements. Getting to know how Blue Owl's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Blue Owl may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OTF | Blue Owl Technology | (0.08) | 8 per month | 1.69 | (0.04) | 2.48 | (2.66) | 7.65 | |
| OMF | OneMain Holdings | 1.39 | 8 per month | 1.67 | 0.10 | 3.48 | (2.89) | 12.22 | |
| SLM | SLM Corp | (0.62) | 7 per month | 3.24 | 0.02 | 3.45 | (3.17) | 20.19 | |
| FCFS | FirstCash | 0.24 | 9 per month | 1.76 | 0.01 | 2.22 | (3.17) | 12.46 | |
| MARA | Marathon Digital Holdings | 0.21 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.57 | (7.12) | 20.04 | |
| SYF | Synchrony Financial | 0.37 | 10 per month | 2.11 | 0.02 | 2.67 | (2.25) | 12.73 | |
| PSEC | Prospect Capital | (0.03) | 11 per month | 1.56 | 0.06 | 4.60 | (3.05) | 10.92 | |
| PNFP | Pinnacle Financial Partners | (0.17) | 7 per month | 1.52 | 0.05 | 2.99 | (2.01) | 8.67 | |
| PFSI | PennyMac Finl Svcs | 1.90 | 15 per month | 1.20 | 0.14 | 4.70 | (1.78) | 12.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Blue Owl
For every potential investor in Blue, whether a beginner or expert, Blue Owl's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Blue Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Blue. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Blue Owl's price trends.Blue Owl Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Blue Owl stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Blue Owl could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Blue Owl by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Blue Owl Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Blue Owl stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Blue Owl shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Blue Owl stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Blue Owl Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Blue Owl Risk Indicators
The analysis of Blue Owl's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Blue Owl's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting blue stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9829 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Blue Owl
The number of cover stories for Blue Owl depends on current market conditions and Blue Owl's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Blue Owl is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Blue Owl's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Blue Owl Short Properties
Blue Owl's future price predictability will typically decrease when Blue Owl's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Blue Owl Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Blue Owl's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Owl's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 390.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 431.8 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Blue Owl to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Owl. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Owl listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Dividend Share 1.48 | Earnings Share 1.41 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.116 |
The market value of Blue Owl Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Owl's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Owl's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Owl's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Owl's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Owl's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Owl is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Owl's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.