Oportun Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| OPRT Stock | USD 6.05 1.21 25.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oportun Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.54. Oportun Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength indicator of Oportun Financial's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 12.7 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.3081 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.342 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5701 | Wall Street Target Price 8.25 |
Using Oportun Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oportun Financial Corp from the perspective of Oportun Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Oportun Financial using Oportun Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Oportun using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Oportun Financial's stock price.
Oportun Financial Short Interest
An investor who is long Oportun Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Oportun Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Oportun Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 5.8594 | Short Percent 0.0409 | Short Ratio 4.89 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 5.1491 |
Oportun Financial Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Oportun Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Oportun. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Oportun can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Oportun Financial Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Oportun Financial Implied Volatility | 1.54 |
Oportun Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Oportun Financial Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Oportun Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Oportun Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Oportun Financial's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oportun Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.54. Oportun Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 6.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oportun Financial to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Oportun Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Oportun Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Oportun Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Oportun Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Oportun Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Oportun Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Oportun Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Oportun. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Oportun Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oportun price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oportun using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oportun charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Oportun Financial's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-12-31 | Previous Quarter 96.8 M | Current Value 104.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 38.8 M |
Oportun Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Oportun Financial Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 6.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.54.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Oportun Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Oportun Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Oportun Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Oportun Financial | Oportun Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Oportun Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Oportun Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Oportun Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.14 and 10.19, respectively. We have considered Oportun Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Oportun Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Oportun Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.4896 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1236 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0239 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.5423 |
Predictive Modules for Oportun Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oportun Financial Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Oportun Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oportun Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oportun Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oportun Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oportun Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oportun Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oportun Financial's historical news coverage. Oportun Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.02 and 10.06, respectively. We have considered Oportun Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oportun Financial is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oportun Financial Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oportun Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oportun Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oportun Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oportun Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 4.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.05 | 6.04 | 0.17 |
|
Oportun Financial Hype Timeline
Oportun Financial Corp is now traded for 6.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Oportun is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.04. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.17%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Oportun Financial is about 2115.79%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.01. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.56. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oportun Financial Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Oportun Financial to cross-verify your projections.Oportun Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oportun Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oportun Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Oportun Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oportun Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| YRD | Yirendai | (0.41) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 3.77 | (3.75) | 13.29 | |
| MFIN | Medallion Financial Corp | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.60 | (0) | 3.54 | (2.68) | 9.48 | |
| FOA | Finance of America | (0.56) | 10 per month | 2.23 | 0.03 | 3.36 | (4.10) | 12.15 | |
| LPRO | Open Lending Corp | 0.14 | 5 per month | 4.14 | 0.01 | 8.50 | (5.69) | 22.07 | |
| ANTA | Antalpha Platform Holding | (0.13) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 6.12 | (6.83) | 22.04 | |
| PMTS | CPI Card Group | (0.56) | 9 per month | 4.46 | (0.01) | 7.06 | (5.35) | 32.85 | |
| SUIG | SUI Group Holdings | (0.08) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 13.06 | (11.23) | 29.10 | |
| JRVR | James River Group | 0.10 | 8 per month | 2.13 | 0.11 | 4.88 | (4.33) | 21.85 | |
| CPSS | Consumer Portfolio Services | 0.04 | 9 per month | 2.64 | (0.01) | 5.15 | (4.17) | 16.69 | |
| ISTR | Investar Holding Corp | (0.37) | 9 per month | 0.53 | 0.21 | 3.13 | (1.54) | 8.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Oportun Financial
For every potential investor in Oportun, whether a beginner or expert, Oportun Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Oportun Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Oportun. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Oportun Financial's price trends.Oportun Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Oportun Financial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Oportun Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Oportun Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Oportun Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Oportun Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Oportun Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Oportun Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Oportun Financial Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Oportun Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Oportun Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Oportun Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oportun stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.93 | |||
| Variance | 15.41 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Oportun Financial
The number of cover stories for Oportun Financial depends on current market conditions and Oportun Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oportun Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oportun Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Oportun Financial Short Properties
Oportun Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oportun Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oportun Financial Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oportun Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oportun Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60 M |
Additional Tools for Oportun Stock Analysis
When running Oportun Financial's price analysis, check to measure Oportun Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Oportun Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Oportun Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Oportun Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Oportun Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Oportun Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.