Origin Materials Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ORGN Stock | USD 0.20 0 1.50% |
Origin Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Origin Materials' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Origin Materials' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Origin Materials fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Origin Materials' share price is approaching 31. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Origin Materials, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.31) | Wall Street Target Price 0.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.11) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) |
Using Origin Materials hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Origin Materials from the perspective of Origin Materials response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Origin Materials using Origin Materials' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Origin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Origin Materials' stock price.
Origin Materials Implied Volatility | 0.56 |
Origin Materials' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Origin Materials stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Origin Materials' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Origin Materials stock will not fluctuate a lot when Origin Materials' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 0.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.12. Origin Materials after-hype prediction price | USD 0.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Origin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Origin Materials will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.035% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Origin Materials trading at USD 0.20299999, that is roughly USD 7.1E-5 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Origin Materials' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Origin Materials options at the current volatility level of 0.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Origin Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Origin Materials' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Origin Materials' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Origin Materials stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Origin Materials' open interest, investors have to compare it to Origin Materials' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Origin Materials is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Origin. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Origin Materials Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Origin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Origin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Origin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Origin Materials Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Origin Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 0.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Origin Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Origin Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Origin Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Origin Materials | Origin Materials Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Origin Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Origin Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Origin Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 5.69, respectively. We have considered Origin Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Origin Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Origin Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.0078 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.01 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.019 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0567 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.1235 |
Predictive Modules for Origin Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Origin Materials After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Origin Materials at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Origin Materials or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Origin Materials, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Origin Materials Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Origin Materials' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Origin Materials' historical news coverage. Origin Materials' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 5.69, respectively. We have considered Origin Materials' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Origin Materials is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Origin Materials is based on 3 months time horizon.
Origin Materials Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Origin Materials is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Origin Materials backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Origin Materials, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.74 | 5.49 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.20 | 0.20 | 0.00 |
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Origin Materials Hype Timeline
Origin Materials is now traded for 0.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Origin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.74%. %. The volatility of related hype on Origin Materials is about 23869.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.24. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.11. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Origin Materials recorded a loss per share of 0.47. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of February 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections.Origin Materials Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Origin Materials' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Origin Materials' future price movements. Getting to know how Origin Materials' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Origin Materials may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients | (0.02) | 9 per month | 3.25 | 0.26 | 13.41 | (6.27) | 32.45 | |
| NEXM | NexMetals Mining Corp | 0.16 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 6.52 | (6.60) | 15.19 | |
| LOOP | Loop Industries | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 6.74 | (6.42) | 26.83 | |
| GRO | Brazil Potash Corp | (0.05) | 8 per month | 4.28 | 0.03 | 6.53 | (6.56) | 16.70 | |
| FEAM | 5E Advanced Materials | 0.15 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 8.84 | (9.72) | 25.12 | |
| GORO | Gold Resource | 0.03 | 7 per month | 5.35 | 0.13 | 12.90 | (8.22) | 45.64 | |
| ATLX | Atlas Lithium | (0.16) | 15 per month | 5.68 | 0.01 | 8.66 | (9.65) | 22.31 | |
| FURY | Fury Gold Mines | 0.05 | 9 per month | 3.89 | 0.05 | 9.09 | (6.49) | 27.18 | |
| PZG | Paramount Gold Nevada | 0.12 | 7 per month | 3.14 | 0.16 | 11.11 | (4.90) | 19.02 | |
| LGO | Largo Resources | (0.06) | 4 per month | 4.34 | 0.03 | 9.17 | (6.80) | 20.11 |
Other Forecasting Options for Origin Materials
For every potential investor in Origin, whether a beginner or expert, Origin Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Origin Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Origin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Origin Materials' price trends.Origin Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Origin Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Origin Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Origin Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Origin Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Origin Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Origin Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Origin Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Origin Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Origin Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Origin Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Origin Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting origin stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.66 | |||
| Variance | 32.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Origin Materials
The number of cover stories for Origin Materials depends on current market conditions and Origin Materials' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Origin Materials is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Origin Materials' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Origin Materials Short Properties
Origin Materials' future price predictability will typically decrease when Origin Materials' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Origin Materials often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Origin Materials' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Materials' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 102.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Origin Materials to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Origin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Origin Materials guide.You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Origin Materials. If investors know Origin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Origin Materials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.667 | Earnings Share (0.47) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.43) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Origin Materials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Origin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Origin Materials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Origin Materials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Origin Materials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Origin Materials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Origin Materials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Origin Materials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Origin Materials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.