OReilly Automotive Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ORLY Stock | USD 94.22 1.36 1.46% |
OReilly Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of OReilly Automotive's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using OReilly Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of OReilly Automotive from the perspective of OReilly Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 94.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.26. OReilly Automotive after-hype prediction price | USD 94.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections. OReilly Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine OReilly price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for OReilly using various technical indicators. When you analyze OReilly charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
OReilly Automotive Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of OReilly Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 94.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.91, mean absolute percentage error of 11.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 177.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict OReilly Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that OReilly Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
OReilly Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest OReilly Automotive | OReilly Automotive Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
OReilly Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting OReilly Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. OReilly Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 93.00 and 95.63, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of OReilly Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent OReilly Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5276 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.9059 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0304 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 177.2595 |
Predictive Modules for OReilly Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as OReilly Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.OReilly Automotive After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of OReilly Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in OReilly Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of OReilly Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
OReilly Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting OReilly Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on OReilly Automotive's historical news coverage. OReilly Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.75 and 95.39, respectively. We have considered OReilly Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
OReilly Automotive is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of OReilly Automotive is based on 3 months time horizon.
OReilly Automotive Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as OReilly Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading OReilly Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with OReilly Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
94.22 | 94.07 | 0.16 |
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OReilly Automotive Hype Timeline
OReilly Automotive is now traded for 94.22. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. OReilly is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 94.07. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.16%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on OReilly Automotive is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.22. About 88.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.19. OReilly Automotive had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 15:1 split on the 10th of June 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of OReilly Automotive to cross-verify your projections.OReilly Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to OReilly Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict OReilly Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how OReilly Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how OReilly Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AZO | AutoZone | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.51 | (2.59) | 9.68 | |
| ABNB | Airbnb Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.25 | (0.02) | 2.66 | (2.68) | 10.66 | |
| RACE | Ferrari NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 1.98 | (2.63) | 7.22 | |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean Cruises | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.12 | 6.28 | (3.23) | 24.81 | |
| MAR | Marriott International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.07 | 0.1 | 3.27 | (1.47) | 8.46 | |
| NKE | Nike Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.47 | 0.01 | 3.88 | (2.92) | 14.43 | |
| GM | General Motors | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.40 | 0.10 | 3.93 | (2.65) | 12.21 | |
| CVNA | Carvana Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.66 | 0.09 | 6.14 | (5.00) | 26.23 | |
| SBUX | Starbucks | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.37 | 0.11 | 3.35 | (2.45) | 8.04 | |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.92 | 0.10 | 2.56 | (1.82) | 7.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for OReilly Automotive
For every potential investor in OReilly, whether a beginner or expert, OReilly Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. OReilly Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in OReilly. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying OReilly Automotive's price trends.OReilly Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with OReilly Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of OReilly Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing OReilly Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
OReilly Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how OReilly Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading OReilly Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying OReilly Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify OReilly Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
OReilly Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of OReilly Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in OReilly Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting oreilly stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9588 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.74 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for OReilly Automotive
The number of cover stories for OReilly Automotive depends on current market conditions and OReilly Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that OReilly Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about OReilly Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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OReilly Automotive Short Properties
OReilly Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when OReilly Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of OReilly Automotive often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential OReilly Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. OReilly Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 855.9 M | |
| Shares Float | 836.3 M |
Additional Tools for OReilly Stock Analysis
When running OReilly Automotive's price analysis, check to measure OReilly Automotive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy OReilly Automotive is operating at the current time. Most of OReilly Automotive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of OReilly Automotive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move OReilly Automotive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of OReilly Automotive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.