Pampa Energia Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PAM Stock | USD 83.31 0.11 0.13% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pampa Energia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 85.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.24. Pampa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The value of RSI of Pampa Energia's share price is at 54 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Pampa Energia, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Pampa Energia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Pampa Energia SA from the perspective of Pampa Energia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pampa Energia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 85.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.24. Pampa Energia after-hype prediction price | USD 83.31 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pampa Energia to cross-verify your projections. Pampa Energia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Pampa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Pampa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Pampa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Pampa Energia Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Pampa Energia SA on the next trading day is expected to be 85.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.83, mean absolute percentage error of 7.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 108.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Pampa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Pampa Energia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Pampa Energia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Pampa Energia | Pampa Energia Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Pampa Energia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Pampa Energia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Pampa Energia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 81.41 and 88.64, respectively. We have considered Pampa Energia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Pampa Energia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Pampa Energia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4219 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8346 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0215 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 108.2393 |
Predictive Modules for Pampa Energia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Pampa Energia SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Pampa Energia After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Pampa Energia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Pampa Energia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Pampa Energia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Pampa Energia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Pampa Energia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Pampa Energia's historical news coverage. Pampa Energia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 79.70 and 86.92, respectively. We have considered Pampa Energia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Pampa Energia is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Pampa Energia SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Pampa Energia Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Pampa Energia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Pampa Energia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Pampa Energia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.53 | 3.61 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
83.31 | 83.31 | 0.00 |
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Pampa Energia Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January Pampa Energia SA is traded for 83.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.08. Pampa is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.53%. %. The volatility of related hype on Pampa Energia is about 2506.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.39. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.32. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Pampa Energia SA has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.84. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.81. The firm last dividend was issued on the 11th of January 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be within a week. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pampa Energia to cross-verify your projections.Pampa Energia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Pampa Energia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Pampa Energia's future price movements. Getting to know how Pampa Energia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Pampa Energia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWE | NorthWestern | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.21 | 0.04 | 1.78 | (2.21) | 6.73 | |
| OTTR | Otter Tail | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.90 | 0.09 | 2.02 | (1.81) | 7.91 | |
| SR | Spire Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.56 | (2.11) | 4.16 | |
| ALE | Allete Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.62) | 0.34 | (0.18) | 0.49 | |
| KEN | Kenon Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.26 | 3.73 | (2.34) | 10.72 | |
| EE | Excelerate Energy | (0.1) | 3 per month | 1.57 | 0.18 | 3.54 | (2.86) | 10.67 | |
| PCG | PGE Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.79 | (2.31) | 6.66 | |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities | 1.64 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.99 | (2.41) | 5.00 | |
| AVA | Avista | (0.1) | 1 per month | 1.00 | (0.02) | 1.67 | (1.74) | 5.72 | |
| MGEE | MGE Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.41 | (1.90) | 4.52 |
Other Forecasting Options for Pampa Energia
For every potential investor in Pampa, whether a beginner or expert, Pampa Energia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Pampa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Pampa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Pampa Energia's price trends.Pampa Energia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Pampa Energia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Pampa Energia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Pampa Energia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Pampa Energia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Pampa Energia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Pampa Energia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Pampa Energia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Pampa Energia SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5172.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 83.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 83.43 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.23) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 54.11 |
Pampa Energia Risk Indicators
The analysis of Pampa Energia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Pampa Energia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting pampa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.95 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Variance | 13.06 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.71 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Pampa Energia
The number of cover stories for Pampa Energia depends on current market conditions and Pampa Energia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Pampa Energia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Pampa Energia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Pampa Energia Short Properties
Pampa Energia's future price predictability will typically decrease when Pampa Energia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Pampa Energia SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Pampa Energia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Pampa Energia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 54.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Pampa Energia to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Pampa Energia. If investors know Pampa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Pampa Energia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Pampa Energia SA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Pampa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Pampa Energia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Pampa Energia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Pampa Energia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Pampa Energia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Pampa Energia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Pampa Energia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Pampa Energia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.