Royal Gold Stock Forward View
| RGLD Stock | USD 271.78 5.99 2.16% |
Royal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Royal Gold stock prices and determine the direction of Royal Gold's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Royal Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength momentum indicator of Royal Gold's share price is above 70 at the present time indicating that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Royal, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.142 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.025 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.0236 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.7673 | Wall Street Target Price 329.7273 |
Using Royal Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Royal Gold from the perspective of Royal Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Royal Gold using Royal Gold's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Royal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Royal Gold's stock price.
Royal Gold Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Royal Gold's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Royal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Royal Gold stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 196.264 | Short Percent 0.0386 | Short Ratio 2.38 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.2 M | 50 Day MA 247.3274 |
Royal Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 278.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 493.12.Royal Gold Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Royal Gold's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Royal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Royal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Royal Gold. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Royal Gold's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Royal Gold.
Royal Gold Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
Royal Gold's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Royal Gold stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Royal Gold's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Royal Gold stock will not fluctuate a lot when Royal Gold's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 278.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 493.12. Royal Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 280.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Gold to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Royal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Royal Gold will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Royal Gold trading at USD 271.78, that is roughly USD 0.11 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Royal Gold's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Royal Gold options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Royal Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Royal Gold's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Royal Gold's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Royal Gold stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Royal Gold's open interest, investors have to compare it to Royal Gold's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Royal Gold is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Royal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Royal Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Royal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Royal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Royal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Royal Gold Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Royal Gold's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1986-06-30 | Previous Quarter 172.8 M | Current Value 233.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 182.1 M |
Royal Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Royal Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 278.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.08, mean absolute percentage error of 96.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 493.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Royal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Royal Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Royal Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Royal Gold | Royal Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Royal Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Royal Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Royal Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 276.23 and 281.64, respectively. We have considered Royal Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Royal Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Royal Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.6753 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.0839 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0325 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 493.1172 |
Predictive Modules for Royal Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Royal Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Royal Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Royal Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Royal Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Royal Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Royal Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Royal Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Royal Gold's historical news coverage. Royal Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 277.73 and 283.13, respectively. We have considered Royal Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Royal Gold is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Royal Gold is based on 3 months time horizon.
Royal Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Royal Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Royal Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Royal Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.69 | 2.71 | 2.52 | 0.58 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
271.78 | 280.43 | 0.96 |
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Royal Gold Hype Timeline
Royal Gold is at this time traded for 271.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.52, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.58. Royal is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 280.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 74.25%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.96%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.69%. The volatility of related hype on Royal Gold is about 321.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 272.36. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.03 B. Net Income was 471.58 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 546.7 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Gold to cross-verify your projections.Royal Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Royal Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Royal Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Royal Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Royal Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining | 0.33 | 11 per month | 4.36 | 0.03 | 6.49 | (8.23) | 20.68 | |
| AGI | Alamos Gold | 1.03 | 10 per month | 3.80 | 0.11 | 6.22 | (6.26) | 18.61 | |
| CDE | Coeur Mining | 1.17 | 10 per month | 4.06 | 0.13 | 7.43 | (5.71) | 29.29 | |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | 0.89 | 9 per month | 1.09 | 0.26 | 4.77 | (2.58) | 10.48 | |
| SUZ | Suzano Papel e | (0.04) | 9 per month | 0.98 | 0.13 | 1.99 | (1.79) | 15.38 | |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver | 1.71 | 9 per month | 3.70 | 0.16 | 7.23 | (6.58) | 24.89 | |
| ALB | Albemarle Corp | 3.16 | 7 per month | 3.54 | 0.19 | 5.08 | (6.18) | 17.63 | |
| HL | Hecla Mining | 0.59 | 10 per month | 4.86 | 0.12 | 8.77 | (6.60) | 27.31 | |
| NGD | New Gold | (0.37) | 11 per month | 3.89 | 0.14 | 7.57 | (5.50) | 29.39 | |
| EQX | Equinox Gold Corp | (0.05) | 7 per month | 4.00 | 0.07 | 6.78 | (6.48) | 20.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Royal Gold
For every potential investor in Royal, whether a beginner or expert, Royal Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Royal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Royal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Royal Gold's price trends.Royal Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Royal Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Royal Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Royal Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Royal Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Royal Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Royal Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Royal Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Royal Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 45672.48 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 273.99 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 273.25 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (5.21) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (5.99) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 74.7 |
Royal Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Royal Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Royal Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting royal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Variance | 6.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.68 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.4 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Royal Gold
The number of cover stories for Royal Gold depends on current market conditions and Royal Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Royal Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Royal Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Royal Gold to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Royal Stock refer to our How to Trade Royal Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Will Metals & Mining sector continue expanding? Could Royal diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Royal Gold. Anticipated expansion of Royal directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Royal Gold data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.142 | Dividend Share 0.6 | Earnings Share 7.25 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 |
The market value of Royal Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Royal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Royal Gold's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Royal Gold's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Royal Gold's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Royal Gold's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Royal Gold's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Royal Gold should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Royal Gold's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.