Rivian Automotive Stock Forward View
| RIVN Stock | USD 14.44 0.31 2.10% |
Rivian Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Rivian Automotive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Rivian Automotive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Rivian Automotive fundamentals over time.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Rivian Automotive's share price is approaching 40 indicating that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Rivian Automotive, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.86) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.23) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.93) | Wall Street Target Price 16.96 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.86) |
Using Rivian Automotive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Rivian Automotive from the perspective of Rivian Automotive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Rivian Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rivian Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 15.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.10.Rivian Automotive Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Rivian Automotive's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Rivian. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Rivian can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Rivian Automotive. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Rivian Automotive's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Rivian Automotive.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rivian Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 15.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.10. Rivian Automotive after-hype prediction price | USD 14.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rivian Automotive to cross-verify your projections. Rivian Automotive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Rivian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Rivian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Rivian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Rivian Automotive Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Rivian Automotive's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2020-03-31 | Previous Quarter 4.8 B | Current Value 4.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 5.5 B |
Rivian Automotive Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Rivian Automotive on the next trading day is expected to be 15.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.82, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.10.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rivian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rivian Automotive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Rivian Automotive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Rivian Automotive | Rivian Automotive Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Rivian Automotive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Rivian Automotive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rivian Automotive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.64 and 20.99, respectively. We have considered Rivian Automotive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rivian Automotive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rivian Automotive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9111 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7229 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0421 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.0958 |
Predictive Modules for Rivian Automotive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rivian Automotive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Rivian Automotive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Rivian Automotive After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Rivian Automotive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Rivian Automotive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Rivian Automotive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Rivian Automotive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Rivian Automotive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Rivian Automotive's historical news coverage. Rivian Automotive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.27 and 19.61, respectively. We have considered Rivian Automotive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Rivian Automotive is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Rivian Automotive is based on 3 months time horizon.
Rivian Automotive Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Rivian Automotive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Rivian Automotive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Rivian Automotive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.36 | 5.17 | 1.72 | 0.18 | 17 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 17 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
14.44 | 14.44 | 0.00 |
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Rivian Automotive Hype Timeline
Rivian Automotive is at this time traded for 14.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.72, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Rivian is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 108.39%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.36%. %. The volatility of related hype on Rivian Automotive is about 1046.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.26. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Rivian Automotive was at this time reported as 4.13. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.13. Rivian Automotive recorded a loss per share of 3.01. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 17 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rivian Automotive to cross-verify your projections.Rivian Automotive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Rivian Automotive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Rivian Automotive's future price movements. Getting to know how Rivian Automotive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Rivian Automotive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NIO | Nio Class A | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.92 | (5.45) | 11.98 | |
| HMC | Honda Motor Co | 3.99 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.85 | (1.97) | 6.42 | |
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings | 0.05 | 10 per month | 1.10 | 0.13 | 2.76 | (2.13) | 5.51 | |
| LI | Li Auto | (4.85) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.48 | (3.27) | 8.72 | |
| APTV | Aptiv PLC | (1.03) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.41 | (4.26) | 11.51 | |
| MGA | Magna International | 0.42 | 16 per month | 1.28 | 0.09 | 3.67 | (2.63) | 9.62 | |
| DKNG | DraftKings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.81 | (5.22) | 16.77 | |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co | 2.84 | 7 per month | 1.25 | 0.05 | 2.82 | (1.86) | 7.35 | |
| BBY | Best Buy Co | (0.86) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.36 | (2.85) | 10.22 | |
| VFS | VinFast Auto Ltd | (5.50) | 21 per month | 2.23 | (0.01) | 3.29 | (3.66) | 15.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for Rivian Automotive
For every potential investor in Rivian, whether a beginner or expert, Rivian Automotive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rivian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rivian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rivian Automotive's price trends.Rivian Automotive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Rivian Automotive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Rivian Automotive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Rivian Automotive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Rivian Automotive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rivian Automotive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rivian Automotive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rivian Automotive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rivian Automotive entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 468995.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.86) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.29) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.31) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 40.57 |
Rivian Automotive Risk Indicators
The analysis of Rivian Automotive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rivian Automotive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rivian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.11 | |||
| Variance | 26.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.48 | |||
| Semi Variance | 9.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.60) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Rivian Automotive
The number of cover stories for Rivian Automotive depends on current market conditions and Rivian Automotive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Rivian Automotive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Rivian Automotive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Rivian Automotive Short Properties
Rivian Automotive's future price predictability will typically decrease when Rivian Automotive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Rivian Automotive often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Rivian Automotive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Rivian Automotive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 7.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rivian Automotive to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Rivian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Rivian Automotive guide.You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Will Automobile Manufacturers sector continue expanding? Could Rivian diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rivian Automotive. Anticipated expansion of Rivian directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Rivian Automotive data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share (3.01) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.783 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
Understanding Rivian Automotive requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Rivian's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Rivian Automotive's is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Rivian Automotive's price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Rivian Automotive's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Rivian Automotive should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. In contrast, Rivian Automotive's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.