Richmond Mutual Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

RMBI Stock  USD 14.25  0.08  0.56%   
Richmond Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Richmond Mutual's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 6th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Richmond Mutual's share price is below 20 indicating that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Richmond Mutual's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Richmond Mutual Bancorporation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Richmond Mutual's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.455
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.164
Using Richmond Mutual hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Richmond Mutual Bancorporation from the perspective of Richmond Mutual response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Richmond Mutual Bancorporation on the next trading day is expected to be 14.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.65.

Richmond Mutual after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 14.32  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Richmond Mutual to cross-verify your projections.

Richmond Mutual Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Richmond price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Richmond using various technical indicators. When you analyze Richmond charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Richmond Mutual simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Richmond Mutual Bancorporation are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Richmond Mutual Banc prices get older.

Richmond Mutual Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Richmond Mutual Bancorporation on the next trading day is expected to be 14.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Richmond Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Richmond Mutual's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Richmond Mutual Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Richmond Mutual  Richmond Mutual Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Richmond Mutual Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Richmond Mutual's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Richmond Mutual's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.72 and 15.84, respectively. We have considered Richmond Mutual's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
14.25
14.28
Expected Value
15.84
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Richmond Mutual stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Richmond Mutual stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.0853
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0336
MADMean absolute deviation0.1608
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0116
SAESum of the absolute errors9.6489
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Richmond Mutual Bancorporation forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Richmond Mutual observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Richmond Mutual

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Richmond Mutual Banc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.7614.3215.88
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.9016.9118.47
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.4514.0014.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Richmond Mutual. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Richmond Mutual's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Richmond Mutual's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Richmond Mutual Banc.

Richmond Mutual After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Richmond Mutual at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Richmond Mutual or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Richmond Mutual, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Richmond Mutual Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Richmond Mutual's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Richmond Mutual's historical news coverage. Richmond Mutual's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.76 and 15.88, respectively. We have considered Richmond Mutual's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
14.25
14.32
After-hype Price
15.88
Upside
Richmond Mutual is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Richmond Mutual Banc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Richmond Mutual Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Richmond Mutual is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Richmond Mutual backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Richmond Mutual, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
1.56
  0.01 
  0.01 
5 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
14.25
14.32
0.07 
5,200  
Notes

Richmond Mutual Hype Timeline

Richmond Mutual Banc is at this time traded for 14.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Richmond is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.32. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Richmond Mutual is about 3250.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 14.26. About 22.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.99. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Richmond Mutual Banc last dividend was issued on the 4th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Richmond Mutual to cross-verify your projections.

Richmond Mutual Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Richmond Mutual's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Richmond Mutual's future price movements. Getting to know how Richmond Mutual's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Richmond Mutual may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
EBMTEagle Bancorp Montana 0.34 11 per month 0.68  0.35  3.36 (1.80) 7.09 
SBFGSB Financial Group 0.32 8 per month 2.10  0.07  4.58 (3.96) 10.33 
FCAPFirst Capital(0.52)8 per month 2.63  0.18  7.27 (5.18) 17.93 
AFBIAffinity Bancshares 0.17 7 per month 1.26  0.06  2.12 (2.06) 13.88 
SFBCSound Financial Bancorp 0.03 10 per month 0.00 (0.06) 0.93 (1.02) 6.34 
MGYRMagyar Bancorp(0.09)8 per month 1.03  0.07  2.07 (2.09) 6.78 
PNBKPatriot National Bancorp 0.12 10 per month 4.43  0.07  6.98 (8.24) 17.77 
CFBKCF Bankshares 0.13 7 per month 0.65  0.27  4.96 (1.80) 9.61 
ECBKECB Bancorp 0.18 9 per month 0.91  0.11  1.84 (1.30) 11.46 
LSBKLake Shore Bancorp(0.20)6 per month 0.86  0.13  2.06 (1.55) 5.81 

Other Forecasting Options for Richmond Mutual

For every potential investor in Richmond, whether a beginner or expert, Richmond Mutual's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Richmond Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Richmond. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Richmond Mutual's price trends.

Richmond Mutual Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Richmond Mutual stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Richmond Mutual could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Richmond Mutual by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Richmond Mutual Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Richmond Mutual stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Richmond Mutual shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Richmond Mutual stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Richmond Mutual Bancorporation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Richmond Mutual Risk Indicators

The analysis of Richmond Mutual's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Richmond Mutual's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting richmond stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Richmond Mutual

The number of cover stories for Richmond Mutual depends on current market conditions and Richmond Mutual's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Richmond Mutual is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Richmond Mutual's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Richmond Mutual Short Properties

Richmond Mutual's future price predictability will typically decrease when Richmond Mutual's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Richmond Mutual Bancorporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Richmond Mutual's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Richmond Mutual's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding9.8 M
Dividends Paid5.7 M
Forward Annual Dividend Rate0.6
Shares Float7.3 M
When determining whether Richmond Mutual Banc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Richmond Mutual's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Richmond Mutual to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is there potential for Regional Banks market expansion? Will Richmond introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Richmond Mutual. Anticipated expansion of Richmond directly elevates investor willingness to pay premium valuations. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Richmond Mutual listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.455
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
1.18
Revenue Per Share
4.835
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.164
Richmond Mutual Banc's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on Richmond's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate Richmond Mutual's intrinsic value - its true economic worth - which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Since Richmond Mutual's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
It's important to distinguish between Richmond Mutual's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Richmond Mutual should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. However, Richmond Mutual's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.