ST Bancorp Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| STBA Stock | USD 42.23 1.15 2.80% |
STBA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ST Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of ST Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ST Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of ST Bancorp's share price is at 59. This usually implies that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ST Bancorp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.039 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.845 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.526 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.704 | Wall Street Target Price 41.4 |
Using ST Bancorp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ST Bancorp from the perspective of ST Bancorp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ST Bancorp using ST Bancorp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards STBA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ST Bancorp's stock price.
ST Bancorp Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ST Bancorp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards STBA. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ST Bancorp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 38.1183 | Short Percent 0.0232 | Short Ratio 3.23 | Shares Short Prior Month 654.2 K | 50 Day MA 40.2272 |
STBA Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ST Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 41.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.99.ST Bancorp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ST Bancorp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in STBA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding STBA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ST Bancorp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ST Bancorp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ST Bancorp.
ST Bancorp Implied Volatility | 0.79 |
ST Bancorp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ST Bancorp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ST Bancorp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ST Bancorp stock will not fluctuate a lot when ST Bancorp's options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ST Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 41.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.99. ST Bancorp after-hype prediction price | USD 42.24 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ST Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current STBA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ST Bancorp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0494% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With ST Bancorp trading at USD 42.23, that is roughly USD 0.0209 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ST Bancorp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ST Bancorp options at the current volatility level of 0.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 STBA Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ST Bancorp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ST Bancorp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ST Bancorp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ST Bancorp's open interest, investors have to compare it to ST Bancorp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ST Bancorp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in STBA. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ST Bancorp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine STBA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for STBA using various technical indicators. When you analyze STBA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ST Bancorp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ST Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 41.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 0.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.99.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STBA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ST Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ST Bancorp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ST Bancorp | ST Bancorp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ST Bancorp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ST Bancorp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ST Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.95 and 43.21, respectively. We have considered ST Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ST Bancorp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ST Bancorp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9979 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7376 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.9918 |
Predictive Modules for ST Bancorp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ST Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ST Bancorp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ST Bancorp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ST Bancorp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ST Bancorp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ST Bancorp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ST Bancorp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ST Bancorp's historical news coverage. ST Bancorp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.61 and 43.87, respectively. We have considered ST Bancorp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ST Bancorp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ST Bancorp is based on 3 months time horizon.
ST Bancorp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ST Bancorp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ST Bancorp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ST Bancorp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 1.63 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
42.23 | 42.24 | 0.02 |
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ST Bancorp Hype Timeline
ST Bancorp is at this time traded for 42.23. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. STBA is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.24 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on ST Bancorp is about 806.93%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 42.29. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 568.51 M. Net Income was 131.26 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 391.89 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ST Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.ST Bancorp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ST Bancorp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ST Bancorp's future price movements. Getting to know how ST Bancorp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ST Bancorp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SRCE | 1st Source | (0.27) | 9 per month | 1.01 | 0.08 | 2.95 | (2.08) | 6.47 | |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | (0.64) | 7 per month | 1.04 | 0.12 | 3.41 | (1.67) | 7.18 | |
| LKFN | Lakeland Financial | (0.78) | 8 per month | 1.39 | (0.03) | 3.46 | (2.49) | 7.97 | |
| MBIN | Merchants Bancorp | 1.11 | 8 per month | 1.76 | 0.05 | 3.89 | (2.97) | 8.63 | |
| NBHC | National Bank Holdings | 0.42 | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.04 | 2.85 | (2.98) | 9.76 | |
| GABC | German American Bancorp | (0.33) | 11 per month | 1.17 | 0.01 | 3.00 | (2.01) | 7.82 | |
| FCF | First Commonwealth Financial | (0.14) | 9 per month | 1.29 | 0.04 | 2.92 | (1.48) | 7.09 | |
| FRME | First Merchants | 1.09 | 9 per month | 1.27 | (0.01) | 2.33 | (1.59) | 8.32 | |
| QCRH | QCR Holdings | 1.94 | 8 per month | 1.09 | 0.15 | 3.55 | (1.74) | 8.45 | |
| STEL | Stellar Bancorp | (0.38) | 8 per month | 0.95 | 0.05 | 2.20 | (1.75) | 8.20 |
Other Forecasting Options for ST Bancorp
For every potential investor in STBA, whether a beginner or expert, ST Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. STBA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in STBA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ST Bancorp's price trends.ST Bancorp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ST Bancorp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ST Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ST Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ST Bancorp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ST Bancorp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ST Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ST Bancorp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ST Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ST Bancorp Risk Indicators
The analysis of ST Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ST Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting stba stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.34) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ST Bancorp
The number of cover stories for ST Bancorp depends on current market conditions and ST Bancorp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ST Bancorp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ST Bancorp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ST Bancorp to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade STBA Stock refer to our How to Trade STBA Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Is Regional Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ST Bancorp. If investors know STBA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ST Bancorp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.039 | Dividend Share 2.38 | Earnings Share 3.49 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of ST Bancorp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of STBA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ST Bancorp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ST Bancorp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ST Bancorp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ST Bancorp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ST Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ST Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ST Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.